Post Brexit forecast... How can we trust what experts say?

[mummmy2017]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/amp/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

This guy got it wrong last time, how can we trust what he says?

lonelyplanet
As a first generation economic migrant I find the racism of many people easy to spot.

I was in a meeting where somebody new said "well its not like we have any immigrants in this group" .... you could have heard a pin drop as people waited for me to say something.

The UK is desperate for more doctors
A huge proportion of Syrian trained doctors are languishing in refugee camps
Let them in and let them work

Those Syrian health specialists, need facilities, drugs and security to treat their own peoples, in these camps in the Lebanon Jordan and Turkey.
Not over here treating a bunch of fat self inflicted diabetics.

jasjas
They are needed there, but many are already in Turkey and Europe.
At least let them work and keep their skills up to date and earn money for when they go back to rebuild their country.

Apart from anything else medicine ( like all science) is very international and collaborative and high mobility working in other countries etc is essential.

As a Londoner, the thing that really pisses me off about a lot of ( not all) the anti immigrant motivation behind the Leave vote is that it is from people who live in places like my FIL. My DH says he has never seen his Dad speak to a non white person - ever!

Once you've lived in an urban multicultural environment you get it.

The Leavers I know ( including FIL) particularly dislike Muslim migrants

But they dislike Polish and Romanian immigrants too, whereas elsewhere in Europe, European immigration isn't really seen as an issue.

I was being flippant but as a general rule I do think that the UK - or at least half of it - is a bit less racist, but more anti-immigrant, than some European countries.

As a Londoner, the thing that really pisses me off about a lot of ( not all) the anti immigrant motivation behind the Leave vote is that it is from people who live in places like my FIL. My DH says he has never seen his Dad speak to a non white person - ever!

I'm a Londoner too, though many years a migrant now, and like you I don't even understand why immigration is a problem. It's one of the best things about London!

I want to say it's wrong that people like FIL get a say in something they haven't experienced. It's not open to him to condemn our neighbours because it's nothing to do with him.

But then I guess, the counter argument is townies shouldn't have had a say regarding rural things like er farming or fox hunting.

Except the downside to a fox hunting ban isn't accompanied by decades of a shrunken economy and outlook for the whole nation.

I was in a meeting where somebody new said "well its not like we have any immigrants in this group" .... you could have heard a pin drop as people waited for me to say something.

And how relevant was this to what was being discussed?

Buteo
Um, because the topic at that point was whether people are racist or anti immigrant and all variants in between.
Many of those who purport to be anti immigrant for economic reasons show their true colours when confronted with a grey haired white immigrant with an English accent.

Talkin my DH had a similar experience with his US boss about immigrants to the US - you can talk the same language, look the same, be highly educated, have the required work skills, but you’re still an immigrant.

Those who are saying it will be short term pain (ie years and years) if you can only think of how it will affect you then think of this, those are the years and years that our children will be trying to enter the job market (in a potentially desolate economy), those will be the years our children will be trying to buy homes - but without those jobs of course, it could be tricky.

This jingoistic, make Britain great again bollocks is exactly what got Trump elected and just look at how well that is going. It’s so utterly, desperately frustrating to see this all playing out like a slow car crash before our eyes and not being able to do anything.

Personally I believe Carney. I believe the people whose business it is to see to predict economic outcomes, who spend their days studying our economy, our economic history and who are that the top of their fields. I believe him because he is impartial and has absolutely nothing to gain from deceiving the nation or alarming people.

I do not believe the bollocks that self interested twats like Gove/Johnson and co. are spouting.

I blame Farage, an unelectable, unlikeable and wholly unaccountable dickhead for largely harnessing discontent (and there is always discontent because we live in a capitalist economy and there are ups and downs) for dragging us into this mess.

And the Australian Primeminister can feck off with his simplistic, unwanted views as well.

I’d love to finish this rant with ‘ah that’s better’ but I won’t feel better about this for a very long time

I'm an Italian national who's come here at the end of the1990s to study and has remained. I'm
I'm in work and so is my husband. I've never claimed a penny in welfare benefits and never needed to apply for social housing.
Up until the ref, I never perceived prejudice or xenophobia against EU nationals. I'm now painfully aware of sounding foreign when I speak. Until I open my mouth, no one would think I'm not British. I'm very fair and don't look Mediterranean. Since the ref, I've had people treat me with contempt the moment I opened my mouth. I've been called a "foreigner" in a derogatory way. I now try to speak as little as possible when I'm out in the hope that if I only say I few words, I can get away with passing for British. Whenever I meet a new person I always wonder how they've voted in the ref, whether they're likely to wish I wasn't here or whether they appreciate how hard I work and how hard I try to help others.
The referendum has changed everything.

Also I should clarify that I have British citizenship too but somehow still don't feel as British as
my neighbour because of my accent.

I'm hurt to read comments such as Mummmy's
Does that include all the money they claim in benefits, and schools to educate the children. Use of NHS, and all the other hidden expenses.?

Up until the ref I never thought for a minute that it'd be surrounded by people who think I have less of a right to go and see my GP than someone with no accent.

A large fall in the value of the pound would be a disaster for most Brits and for the country as a whole. Most people are paid in pounds and their savings - if they have any - are in pounds. But those who hold foreign currency are quids in. In it's simplest terms think about going on holiday to a country where you get a lot of the local currency for your pounds. Local people, paid in the local currency seem very poor by comparison while you suddenly feel very well off. People are voting to become the poor locals while the elite few (those with offshore interests - Rupert Murdoch anyone? The Rothermeres (owners of the Mail), the Barclay brothers (Daily Telegraph) - people whose money is safely shored up in another currency) are nicely cushioned. Why do you think those newspapers were so keen to persuade you to vote Brexit? Philip Hammond and now Mark Carney have said it - any option (apart from staying in) will leave us poorer. Except some people won't be - and they are the ones trying to persuade you it will all be ok. The worst thing is that by the time ordinary people realise how bad it’s going to be for them (nothing’s happened yet and won’t until we actually leave) it will be too late to do anything about it. It’s not something that can be reversed at the next general election - that’s it. We’ll never be able to opt back in on the terms we have today.

Loletta - that is infuriating. I like to think it just a few idiots and not the majority who would treat you like that.

Well said itssuchafaff and Lolita I think you are entirely correct, June 23rd 2016 brought out a deep seated racism in this country not seen since Oswold Mosely (see how that ended for fascism) But now that we are aware of it we can now pinpoint these despicable people and treat them with the utter contempt they deserve. I will never hire someone who i believed to be a racist (UKIP, BNP, DUP, EDL & right wing Tory voters) they have truly let our country, our heritage & our values down.

To answer mummmy2017: do you believe the Brexiter's own economist Prof Minford ?
He's the main one they quote and he's usually on the platform with Brexiter politicians if they discuss economics

He said Brexit would bring new opportunities (mostly for those already rich)
but would also probably mean the end of the mass manufacturing and farming / agriculture sectors.
He claims its still worth it though

That's 2 major sectors of the economy to crash, which employ about 8% of the UK workforce,
as well as providing a large amount of the tax intake.

There would also be knock-on effects from the the smaller suppliers & contractors those businesses they use,
plus the unemployed workers having far less discretionary spending for shopping, meals out, haircuts etc

Prof Minford was one of Mrs Thatcher's economic advisers btw, during her policies which led to the de-industrialisarion of much of the North & Midlands especially,
which raised unemployment by about 2 million

Of course those jobs have been replaced now - as her govt claimed would happen - but they were well-paid (previously) secure jobs with good conditions,
whereas many of the following jobs are low-paid, ZHC etc - that's what helped create the "precariat" we have now.

In contrast, Carney largely saved Canada from suffering significantly during the Financial Crisis
He has a proven record of success in exceptionally difficult times, when many others were getting it wrong

Veteran (30 years campaigning) Leaver Richard North would choose NoDeal to Remain ot May's WIthdrawal Agreement, because he is real hardcore.
However, he also posts that Carney hasn't stated the worst possible case of No Deal, because "chaos can't be modelled"
and that we might be wishing later that Carney's predictions would be true

According to the government's own figures,
£40.5. k PER FAMILY.
£28.5. k PER HOUSEHOLD

This is the cost per year in 2016.
So really if these figures are correct, no one pays that much tax unless they are earning mega bucks...

So how the heck can they say it thst they make a profit out of EU workers staying here....

Because I want earn that much too.

This is one of the problems with the whole 'project fear' tag, that was used throughout the referendum campaign and continues to be used to quash discussion on anything that might show the UK public Brexit realities.
People are being actively encouraged to not look at the facts and figures, to disregard anything that is in anyway 'negative' , to dispute anything negative with soundbites, not critical appraisal.

Mummy sorry what are those Government figures ?

There isn’t a politician without there own agenda here so it’s anyones guess,the only thing that’s a guarantee is the politicians will be making sure there pockets are well libre no matter what the outcome is

Let's assume that your figures are correct mummmy..so you do believe that I have less of a right to get a GP appointment than someone who's had a British passport from birth rather than at the age of 30?

By the way, my DH alone paid over £100k in income tax in the last financial year and he's also an Italian citizen by birth. Following your logic,
does he have any right to get that GP appointment?

Funny how pet Leave experts are always right and any who says it's going to be shit is called an [sneer in voice] ex-pert.

TheyBuiltThePyramids
Thank you but although it is only a few idiots who've treated me like this since the ref, I know from reading MN, watching QT and listening to radio phone ins (amongst others) that there are hundreds of thousands of people (maybe millions?) who think that way.
I'm not saying that all 17 million of leave voters are xenophobs but a lot of them - too many - are.