Post Brexit forecast... How can we trust what experts say?

[mummmy2017]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/amp/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

This guy got it wrong last time, how can we trust what he says?

I live in another EU country which has a huge problem with immigration

Which one and what do you call a "problem"?

In the EU attitudes towards EU migration are generally positive, no one wants to end FOM because they understand that it works both ways.

What you're really saying is that you live in an EU country with a huge problem with racism.

*Mistigri
*
I've tried really hard to follow the twitter links. I want to understand more on this but can only see the dialogue of about six replies- I think I'm just no good at Twitter.

To be 100% clear I am certain that economically and socially, culturally etc etc full participation in the ability to live and work in other member states is critical. It's what I've marched for 4 times now.

But given Leave won, imagine we aren't protesting, resisting, having our say and just had acquiesced to deliver their prize.

Are you saying the only way to deliver that prize is full relinquishing of EU membership? Or were there other ways that could have been seen to satisfy their underlying concerns that could have been tried first?

I don't know why I'm saying 'imagine' we have acquiesced to deliver their prize, because for all the verbal dissent we are still (reluctantly, remonstratingly ) acquiescing to it.

What you're really saying is that you live in an EU country with a huge problem with racism.
Er, no I'm not actually! I live in Italy and there is a big problem with migrants arriving and begging on the streets - these people are not from the EU yet people are fed up with the EU not helping, hence a lot of grumbling about leaving. I think a failure to deal adequately with immigration (and I'm not talking about just barring entry to anyone but having a working system so that we don't have so many people begging, getting sucked into drug dealing etc) leads to people taking more extreme views - eg Let's solve the problem by leaving the EU.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=UYonSZ8s3_o

I live very close to the Italian border on the coast, and illegal immigration by boat is indeed a huge problem. People are living on the streets, sleeping rough in parks, walking on the highway to France (there are often signs on the highway warning drivers to slow down as there are pedestrians on the side of the road). We have been sending blankets and clothes to them for a good few years now.

I don't know what the solution is but it isn't ignoring the fact that there is a problem.

The whole immigration thing is a red herring in my opinion. Leaving the EU will end freedom of movement - for people from other EU countries (so will also restrict the movement of British people to other EU countries - if the pound is on its knees after Brexit there will be no option to make your fortune elsewhere). It won't stop immigration per se and it certainly won't stop asylum seekers and economic migrants from outside the EU. There will still be immigrants - just not European ones.

I agree LillianGish (love the name!) But I think it is a failure to be seen to be dealing with these problems that is pushing people to reject the EU both in the UK and elsewhere.

People keep shouting the EU must deal with these problems but don't actually say what the EU must do!

If you bar migrants from landing in Italy etc then they will drown in the Med, if you offer them sanctuary across the EU 27, then more will keep arriving, there is no shortage of migrants!
UN rules bar most migrants from being sent back to their country of origin!

The EU has no army, so cannot set up bases in Libya and processing camps! and as Libya hasn't a functioning Government, neither can it be asked to do so.

The deal the EU has with Turkey has limited numbers coming into Greece but it is hardly ideal.

Its ironic that the anti EU folk say the EU has too much power etc etc but then expects it to sort out migration issues by over ruling sovereign states.

Shame that @surferjet has not come back to explain why Angolan nurses are OK but Belgian ones are not ....

This guy got it wrong last time, how can we trust what he says?

With all due respect MC is clearly significantly more intelligent than you so you’d be misguided to disregard him.

Are you saying the only way to deliver that prize is full relinquishing of EU membership? Or were there other ways that could have been seen to satisfy their underlying concerns that could have been tried first?

@lonelyplanetmum (sorry for delay in replying, I am travelling for work)
Why is low immigration a "prize"? Immigration rises when jobs are available for immigrants to do, because I think we will both agree that migration is primarily about people seeking new opportunities. If EU immigration goes down, then all things being equal, non-EU immigration will rise - which is exactly what is happening at the moment.

The way to reduce overall immigration is to make Britain less attractive, by trashing the economy and increasing unemployment. (You might decrease immigration in specific sectors, in the long term, by increasing training budgets but I doubt this makes a huge difference: UK population is ageing and not replacing retiring workers with new ones, it needs migration just to stand still).

Countries which want to control EU migration have some tools at their disposal, most of which the UK already uses, for eg by making it rather difficult to claim benefits (for both migrants and the native population). In addition, being horrible to EU migrants seems to be working quite well and the government has been - probably illegally in many cases - deporting homeless EU migrants for some time, by essentially criminalising not having a home.

But it's patently false to suggest that the 3 month rule is some sort of golden ticket to controlling EU migration, because most migrants plainly won't place an "exceptional burden" on the state even if they don't work (and most do work). The remain camp needs to stop chasing this unicorn.

I'm not actually! I live in Italy

You live in Italy and you're saying you don't live in a country with a huge problem with racism? lol

I live very close to the Italian border on the coast, and illegal immigration by boat is indeed a huge problem.

This is true, but part of the reason for the problem is a failure of the state to step up to the plate, and indeed in Italy the government has recently been dismantling initiatives which fostered integration, eg www.apnews.com/baddf1f3c12e40968b1f3ee82ecb83b5

What this has to do with Brexit I fail to understand. Migration is a problem and it's not going away, because even if the West stops enabling the failure of states in the Middle East and North Africa, climate change is going to produce new waves of migration within our lifetimes. But you don't solve this problem by turning 5 million legal migrants into citizens of nowhere.

Birth rates are at below replacement in every continent except Africa.
By 2040 populations will be actively declining in Europe, North America and Asia.
By 2060 South America will join the gang.
To get young fit people to do tough jobs, more and more immigrants from Africa will be needed by rich countries.

Immigrants who work hard and earn money should be welcomed.
The biggest failing of the refugee crisis is that refugees are stopped from working for so long.
The UK is desperate for more doctors.
A huge proportion of Syrian trained doctors are languishing in refugee camps.
Let them in and let them work.

Those who will not work can be sent back.
Those who will work will integrate much faster, to the benefit of their new and old countries.

*Mistigri
*
I completely agree low immigration isn't not a prize.. in fact as all proper studies show for the U.K. it's a ( very serious) punishment.

However the analysis of the Leave vote showed that reduction in immigration was a main motivator for their vote. And they won.

Obviously fixing austerity is another motivator for some voters and that needs addressing too. (Some hope under this government. )

But what I still want to understand is, given that Leave won, do you think there were any other ways of delivering something that could have been seen to satisfy the underlying concerns of Leave voters. If there is anything it should have been tried first surely?

So if they get the Norway option we still have FOM which isn't what Leave voters wanted. Is it now Leave but not TM Leave?

But what I still want to understand is, given that Leave won, do you think there were any other ways of delivering something that could have been seen to satisfy the underlying concerns of Leave voters.

Yes. A canny government would have delivered Norway + and pretended that it would deliver lower migration (actually all brexits eventually deliver lower migration, because they reduce economic growth - so it's not a complete porky).

But really the problem here is that you're assuming that the average leave voter is genuinely interested in net migration statistics. In fact, net migration actually rose in the last set of figures. Bet you didn't read that in the headlines (which were all about declining EU net migration).

You live in Italy and you're saying you don't live in a country with a huge problem with racism? lol
It has a moderate problem with racism - which doesn't mean it doesn't have a problem with immigration! If Italy didn't have to face the immigration problems it isn't facing we probably wouldn't have the current government- and that is a huge problem!

*IS facing

In fact, net migration actually rose in the last set of figures. Bet you didn't read that in the headlines (which were all about declining EU net migration).

I posted that report about non-EU migration having increased, from Asia mostly. It's at a 14 year high with Europeans being overtaken by people from India and Pakistan.

If nothing else hopefully it demonstrates to Leave voters like my FIL and my friend's Mum that relinquishing EU membership doesn't achieve what they imagined. The next stage is to try and teach them the benefits and need for immigration but that's very much a long shot (in their cases at least).

If Italy didn't have to face the immigration problems it isn't facing we probably wouldn't have the current government- and that is a huge problem!

That's way too simplistic. For a start, the UK has a government which is at least as anti-migrant as Italy's (though a bit less racist - in the UK we dislike all migrants not just the brown ones) - and yet it has barely been impacted by the European migrant crisis.

Italy's problem is that it has chronically incompetent government not that it is on the front-line of migration.

God that read incorrectly ...I meant with graphs showing European immigration figures being overtaken by people from India and Pakistan.

we dislike all migrants not just the brown ones

The Leavers I know ( including FIL) particularly dislike Muslim migrants and second, third generation muslims born in say Bognor. Of course FIL lives in an estate of houses all occupied by clones of himself.

Mistigri - your comment doesn't seem to follow on from mine. I think we misunderstood each other - I meant the current government in Italy not the UK!