Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

Except you'd already given a binding notification that your Focus could be scrunched on the 29 th March 2019?

Like many things brexit, you can't expect people to grasp the details lol!

far right is marching - good - give them maximum publicity - so they cant claim suppression

if they manage to get 2k let alone 10k - it'll be nowhere near 700k and that trumps (sic) 52:48

as for the 17 million getting uppity - well its time they started worrying about the 48% - brexit will take far more away from us than the bunch of empty promises that fooled the 17million.

Geoffrey Cox's legal advice (leaked) is that if the UK falls into the backstop of Mays deal, UK trapped indefinitely in CU.

May will threaten GE is deal isn't supported.

Jeez National Interest my arse!

I know it is not good in some ways to have another referendum but now I am all for it, I want to stay in the EU now mainly because I cannot stand years and years and years more of Brexit. Does this sound a bad reason to you?

I don’t think it’s a bad reason it’s just not a terribly sound one - Remainers are backing a PV in desperation, but it’s by no means clear that Remain would win. A double leave vote and we a fucked, basically.

Plus throwing a dice is not the way to govern a country.

It’s only on the table as an idea as it’s the only conceivable way to subvert a government that is choosing to ignore half the population.

May wont ever call a PV (she'll have to be ousted for that to happen) and in a snap GE will any party campaign on a Remain ticket? doubtful, so whoever wins, we are back at sq one, negotiating a WA with the EU...

Ground hog day lol!

I want to stay in the EU now mainly because I cannot stand years and years and years more of Brexit.
*
*
It's a perfectly good reason. I think there are many who share this view too.

Well, it's not my main reason, but it's true that
any WA - not just this one - will be followed by years of negotiating the actual trade deal with the EU.

Even No Deal will involve negotiating, but it is likely to be from a position of desperation,
with the UK frantically accepting any terms offered laid down, from the EU and also from any other large bloc / country, like the US

So, if you just want all this chaos to stop asap - and return to mostly how things used to be, then Remain is the only option that does that.

Article 50 doesn't say anything specific about trade, just this:

"setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union"

I think people who are dismayed that the WA doesn't include a detailled trade deal and / or want to renegotiate to get one,
haven't read / understood A50,
or don't realise that future UK govts in the transition period may agree with the EU to go in a different direction, particularly Norway++

A lot of the people I meet through my work:
Don’t know what Parliament does
Can’t differentiate between Government and Parliament
Don’t understand the difference between the political right and left
Don’t understand what the EU is or how it operates
Say they don’t trust politicians
(Correctly) say they have no interest in politics
I know because I ask them. I can easily believe many might think No Deal might mean Remain.

I can’t quite believe this story in the DT. Is it a spoof?
I think Farage and the Brexiteers must be getting desperate, but I’m surprised the DT editors didn’t just laugh this story out of court. Unfortunately some readers may take it seriously. (I can’t read the whole article because of the paywall, but I don’t think my blood pressure could take any more anyway.)

Eurosceptics warn that EU judges will rule over Britain after Brexit while high on legal cannabis

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/01/eurosceptics-warn-eu-judges-will-rule-britain-brexit-high-legal/amp/

😂 👻

Don’t know what Parliament does.Can’t differentiate between Government and Parliament
Don’t understand the difference between the political right and left
Don’t understand what the EU is or how it operates
Say they don’t trust politicians(Correctly)
say they have no interest in politics

It's very common, a group of my school friends (mostly Leave supporters) say they have no interest in politics. That's a valid choice, but also worrying when so much is pivoted on the people's will.I remember one school friend hesitantly using the expression 'left 'in a conversation and asking me if that was correct.

I'd also like to know if we did have a second referendum ( terrifying but perhaps Hobson's ish choice) ... and if no deal was an 'option' ( equally terrifying)...

What would the ballot say about it? Would be just no deal with the EU- so what ever? Full stop. No deal
Can be interpreted as no trade deals at all or non that involve rules. How long is the no deal Mandate ?

If people vote no deal aren't they then going to feel betrayed if the govt sets about negotiating trade deals with the EU or anyone ?

Should it be no deal a and no deal b.

It's ridiculous.

No deal until we manage to sort out any trade agreements with anyone who'll have us on their terms.

Or

No deal with anyone foreign, for ever?

born tbh, all that sounds like false hope, which is very dangerous when judging whether a PV is too risky

Polls on straight Leave / Remain, with no mention on No Deal, have been all over the place,
some with Remain in the lead, some with Leave

The ignorance that really scares me:

Most people have no idea how bad No Deal would be and just don't believe the predictions - because leading politicians tell them it's all Remainer lies.

We absolutely do not want a PV with No Deal as an option. Because some pouty childish idiots are just stupid enough to vote for it. And so, in my view, we shouldn't have a PV.
I dislike TM's deal but we should have that rather than No Deal.

lonely People who advocate No Deal keep talking about making deals with countries "around the world" after we've Brexited
(ignoring Fox's abject failure so far after 2 years in that department)

The No Deal we would get is a crash out from the EU, followed by an economic crash in which there might be shortages of essentials, very probably of luxury consumables

Half of our trade is with the EU
Before agreeing on trade negotiations, maybe even on flights & other very basic fixes,
the EU will insist on its 3 prerequisites during A50: citizens rights, no NI border, paying the exit bill

After a few weeks -at most - of chaos and shortages, 95% of the public will be screaming for the govt to make deals.

Leavers will probably demand we sign the USA FTA which I'm sure has already been drafted with the US list of instructions for its UK colony.
However, that won't help much even in the short-term and longterm will destroy our farming / agriculture sector

Hopefully the govt would fall before that, or the HoC will refuse to pass the US trade bill,
because we might never get out of the legally strangling clutches of US giant business conglomerates ... or save the NHS as we know it.

The mantra ' no deal is better than a bad deal' was damaging and has sunk in with some. It was a foolish dangerous sound bite.

I know one Leaver on Facebook who is an evangelist for England being for her sense of ' us' especially for Christian schools and only Christian worship allowed. She said " I'm sick of this I just want it over. I don't care if it's no deal. That's fine by me. "

I didn't comment but just posted a link to what no deal means- in case any of her ' friends' were influenced.

I agree, bellini
People have become used to mostly being shielded by the state, or by consumer / workers' protection law, if they make terrible mistakes in life

They don't comprehend that a national catastrophe can happen to Britain

No Deal is just too big a mistake to shield the bulk of the population
I expect the wealthy will be ok

I know BCF ! but I think many think it means no deal ever with the EU, something it means no deal with anyone overseas.

It's easy not to realise that the people like my FIL, my friend's Mum, or the Christian Leaver I also know. They are of that mindset England is great we don't need foreign stuff and don't need anyone at all.We can produce our own food,( I know we can't.)

I be moved quite a way from my roots and have quite a few FB friends who don't see the point of foreign stuff, no membership of foreign clubs including the EU, UNESCO, G 20, NATO, UN etc etc. Some of them think no deal means no foreign nonsense. Some others think no deal means go back to where we were in 2016.

Sorry lots of typos but you get the gist.

I think the pressure for a PV is working in that it might push people towards May’s deal, which is better than No Deal. Kicking the can down the road, as in May’s deal, is not necessarily a bad thing with the demographic changing as it is.
OTOH, whatever the status quo, some people will always blame the EU for their ills, whether it is Remain, May’s deal or Leave.
“Life would have been better if we had left”
“My house would be worth more if we had crashed out with no deal”
“The EU has destroyed the NHS because we walked out on them”
Etc etc. Without realising that it’s all down to our shitty, disenfranchising, FPTP system that locks us into a cycle of incompetent politicians making pledges they never have to deliver on, as they simply blame the previous lot for their and our predicament.

I don't see how a second referendum will resolve anything, the latest Survation poll has Leave 49% (+2) and Remain 51% (-2). I worry a PV will just deepen further division and lead to a massive shift to the far right especially with Tommy Robinson being aligned with UKIP. Although a remainer I do have concerns about the Leave win in the referendum being totally dismissed by some more ardent remainers. Putting this huge, complicated issue to the people was ridiculous the first time round and I think another PV is making the same mistake twice. I want politicians on all sides to take responsibility for this, do their jobs and work together to sort this mess out.

Revealed: far-Right Ukip Brexit demo 'organiser' is a convicted kidnapper

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/01/revealed-far-right-ukip-brexit-demo-organiser-convicted-kidnapper/

A far right activist who claims to be one of the organisers of a Ukip rally and who attended a top level meeting with the party’s leader Gerard Batten has a conviction for attempted kidnap,
The Sunday Telegraph can reveal.

Daniel Thomas, 29, has been instrumental in promoting “The Brexit Betrayal” march, a London demonstration in which the newly appointed Ukip advisor ‘Tommy Robinson’ is expected to speak on December 9.

The excuses are already online, that the demo will be small, because "real" Leavers son't be associated with the Robinson

However, Leave demos have always been small,
e.g. Farage's pathetic attempts and Katie Hopkins recent debacle of about 20 attendees

I would be relieved if the 'real' Leavers won't be associated with Tommy Robinson.

worry a PV will just deepen further division and lead to a massive shift to the far right

Don't you think that (the admittedly terrifying) fears of the far right in terms of numbers are just that a fear though? In the same way the whole of The Tories pandered to the noisy Mogg lot, giving them the ref they wanted, yet actually they can't muster up four dozen letters.

In both cases the numbers are less than feared. Apart from anything else there are low numbers of women supporting the far right?