Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

Lots of stuff about Brexit shocks & surprises me, but I honestly don’t/can’t believe they’ll be another Pv, I think poll tax & pit strikes would look like a picnic compared to the chaos a 2nd PV would cause

Jaffacake.

I agree, the thoughts of campaigning for a PV at this stage fills me with dread.

Sort it out now please, but the old hubristic, post colonial, we are brilliant Britain needs to get a bit of a wake up call. And it has now.

ERG are silent. Good sign.

WTF: NI temporarily suspends Freedom of Information requests 🤔🤯

Very convenient
I wonder if GB will copy this idea

Hidden Histories of the NI Troubless@HistoriesNi*

Bad news for Troubles researchers today

https://www.communities-ni.gov.uk/temporary-suspension-foi-requests-proni-faqs

"Temporary suspension of FOI requests in PRONI - FAQs

Why is PRONI temporarily suspending Freedom of Information requests?

In the absence of the appropriate Northern Ireland Minister, PRONI does not have the authority to complete the consultation process required under the Freedom of Information legislation.
The temporary suspension applies to all transferred closed public records held by PRONI."

My head hurts from all this. I wonder what young people/future generations will learn when they cover Brexit in history lessons.
I think it was Ian Dunt in one of the links posted about May’s deal who said that Remainers don’t want it, Leavers don’t want it, Labour don’t want it, the Tories don’t want it, the EU doesn’t want it and the UK doesn’t want it but we’re going to go ahead and do it anyway.
In the interests of balance re all the references to Manchester tart, I give you a London delicacy

www.google.co.uk/search?q=tottenham+cake&client=safari&hl=en-gb&prmd=ismvn&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjfhuLe0-veAhWpCsAKHbDwCIYQ_AUIEigB&biw=375&bih=553#imgrc=UeEYPh9TgaLWLM

Sam Coates Timess@SamCoatesTimes*

EU/UK Political Declaration

Political wins for the UK

• No options shut down.
• Doesn't prevent a harder brexit if say, a different UK PM to take the post brexit day negotiations in another direction
• Allows for a softer brexit with SM/CU membership where we observe freedoms

Icantreachthepretzels Absolutely! TM needs to get on board that only 36% of the electorate voted for brexit, many of those have died & new voters have come of age.

A vote on the final package is democracy in action, we were asked do we want to leave, with no one knowing what leave would mean, we ve now know, so lets vote on that too?

If leavers are so confident in brexit, then they'll win again and thats perfectly fine too, UK would have made an educated decision.

Kevin Schofield@PolhomeEditor

Diane Abbott tells Nick Robinson's Political Thinking podcast: "If we had a second referendum tomorrow, Leave would again
and not only would Leave win again,
but leave voters would say 'what didn’t you understand about Leave the first time.'?"
...
John Rentoul@JohnRentoul

Lab leadership now has 3 positions:
weak Remain anti-refdm (JC); strong Remain pro-refdm (KS); strong Remain anti-refdm (DA)

I took part in the PV March but have always maintained that I wasn’t sure it was a good idea - like many others there on that day I wanted to show support for remaining.

Good on those who think a NO DEAL is going to bring back the might of the old Empire.

I wish them well.

..but what is the alternative to a PV ? Mays blind brexit deal, a no deal or a GE?

ATM there is no Parliamentary (or Tory party) majority for anything.

Spain now saying Sundays summit shouldn't go ahead... we'll see!

Oh to do you know what?

Fk it. That is where we are now really. Not much we can do really to change anything now.

Sad days.

That "blind Brexit" - uses Brexit Ulttra terminology - still enables us to choose Norway (or Canada++, or No Deal)
It is an "all Brexit options still on the table" WA

That's why the Brexit Ultras hate it:
they want to con us / bounce us into a No Deal asap, for vast profits
They've already conned half the country last ref - don't let them con Remainers too.

The PV is more risky:
a) Unlikely to happen before Brexit because too few MPs want it
b) Too dangerous - 50:50 that it confirms Leave, very possible No Deal
- and makes a last minute revoke politically impossible

Another possibility is an emergency revoke by May or whoever is PM in Feb / March, if the WA has been rejected 3 times.

With that poll showing how opinion on the EA has improved 14% in just 5 days, let's wait and see how MPs' opinion changes.

The 1st and 2nd WA votes will give us an idea

As long as both May & JC still lead their parties, a PV is very unlikely

But as pp say, the marches are great for showing leaders and MPs the support for Remain.

EA WA

Finally twigged on to new thread. Can we have a reminder on acronyms please.
PV. people’s vote
What’s WA?
SM/CU membership ? Something and Customs Union
Some I’ve worked out, I’m a little slow.

Yikes, you spend one day cooking a massive turkey dinner with all the trimmings and cleaning up the kitchen afterwards, and poof goes a whole thread.

Belated happy Thanksgiving to all!

(PS, does anyone have any idea what I might have done with a container of leftover green beans and carrots?)

......
WA is Withdrawal Agreement.
SM/CU is Single Market/Customs Union.

You know we are fucked when even the idiot Raab says we're better off staying in than going with Moronic May's Withdrawal Agreement. i think they forget that some of us are able to think for ourselves.

Just woke in the middle of the night ( as I do) and had this thought.It's stating the bloomin' obvious.

All this mess. Absolute chaos. And DC called the ref in a hissy fit to pander to the internecine strife in his party. And the agitators (who he was pandering to) can't now even muster 48 supporters. How absurd.

Posted by BCF:
Temporary suspension of FOI requests in PRONI - FAQs

Why is PRONI temporarily suspending Freedom of Information requests?

In the absence of the appropriate Northern Ireland Minister, PRONI does not have the authority to complete the consultation process required under the Freedom of Information legislation.
The temporary suspension applies to all transferred closed public records held by PRONI."

Next up - a massive blaze with mysterious origins, perhaps related to rewiring in the downstairs janitor's closet...

If the PV was Remain vs this deal, it would need all voters to become acutely aware of the contents / consequences of the WA. I don’t think that’d be likely to occur. People more likely to vote on basis of their ‘feelings’.
Hopefully, MPs, whose job it is to represent us, would thoroughly read and understand the WA and vote against it, if it’s as bad as many experts are saying. (Link earlier, can’t find it, was it David Allen Green or Ian Dunt?)
We need our MPs to step up to the plate, become experts on the WA, and vote for the future of the country.

I don't want a PV that has No Deal as an option because some people are just stupid (yes, I said the word) stupid enough to vote No Deal.

I am wondering if some are getting confused with the idea of 'no deal' thinking the UK would be exactly the same but minus some immigrants and plus a blue passport.
No deal actually means a whole lot of stuff is taken away from everyone either in increased taxes or rights and privileges. The UK is already well over £900 per person worse off compared to remaining, and this is before the UK really starts spending on the huge range of changes that have to be made.

With that poll showing how opinion on the EA has improved 14% in just 5 days, let's wait and see how MPs' opinion changes.

The fact that the polls are showing more support for the WA don’t mean it’s a good thing for the country! The government are turning to immigration to try to sell it to people. It’s the referendum campaign all over again.

So depressing! I just want an honest debate of the positives and negatives of the WA, some honesty on what we are signing up to, and how it might bind our future choices. Instead pretty much all I’m hearing on here (and from the govt) is rhetoric on why we need to accept this and move on. Why we can’t possibly have an honest debate, and consult the people again (“they might come to the wrong conclusion”). We need to pull the wool over their eyes to get them to do the “right thing”.

In any other normal country, a decision of this magnitude would involve an open debate and a vote to ratify. I’m thinking of countless peace processes and other major constitutional changes.

In the end, I care more about our democracy than about where precisely we end up.

Precisely missmoon ! Very well said.

Sadly I don’t think there are any ‘normal’ countries