Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

[RedToothBrush]

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

I thought the 2016 referendum was a damn stupid idea. I couldn't support a second one, particularly when there hasn't been a notable shift in public opinion.

And I think the attitude that 'you can't have this popular option because you're too stupid to do any research (or the right sort of research) and might actually vote for it' is hugely dangerous.

As a remainer, I think no deal brexit would be a catastrophe. However, my vote is not worth any more than someone who has the opposite opinion. That's how democracy works, and why it feels like it should be a decision for experts...

Although sadly, we don't trust experts anymore... 🙄 🙄 🙄

In all honesty, whilst I would probably vote remain again in the event that the ecj ruled we could revoke, and a PV was granted with that option, I' m starting to feel that remaining now would also be extremely damaging, and actually the withdrawal agreement would buy time at least...

I think part of the problem is that given a choice between approving the WA or sticking with the status quo, it’s no longer clear what the status quo is. If the status quo is ‘do nothing’, then no deal is the status quo.

Yes...that's a good point. At the minute the alternative to the wa is no deal.

Even if it was possible, do we know what remain would look like? I don't believe it will look anything like it did in June 2016. Just like we can't go back in time to the early 70s (although why we'd want to is beyond me), I just can't see us carrying on as we were pre-referendum.

No deal is the alternative to the WA.

But as others have said, no one, and I mean no one apart from those who would never be affected say No Deal will be great.

Who do you believe?

It's a typo, it should be Billion.

As I said, I believe no deal would be catastrophic.

Unfortunately there are many people who disagree with me - and ironically those I know personally are in many cases members of groups that would be hardest hit by no deal brexit. Go figure.

It's one of the reasons I find a PV problematic.

John Gace details some of Bojo*s wizard schemes:

Would you buy a bridge from this political hack ?

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/nov/23/gibraltar-brexit-boris-johnson-penguins-digested-week

It was announced this week that the three secondhand water cannon he bought for £300,000, which were never used, have been sold for their scrap value of £11,000.

Then there’s his vanity garden bridge project, which will never be built, on which he spent £40m of taxpayers’ money.

...The cable car over the Thames commissioned on the basis that it was a vital commuter link – despite going between two points no commuters required – and is only used by three people a day.
All of whom are presumably lost.

And finally the overpriced £350,000 a piece Routemaster buses that have had to be scrapped because they are inefficient and overheat.
A description that could be used for Boris.

Why a PV atm would be so dangerous ...

Survation for a three-way referendum:
Remain 43
No Deal 28
Deal 16
Don’t Know 13

Opinium even gloomier:
Remain 32
No Deal 24
Deal 21
Don’t Know 23

Alberto Nardelli @ albertonardelli
Spain got what it wanted: letter from UK confirming legal interpretation t.co/8YB97UMNRU + strong statement to be endorsed by EU27 tomorrow

Survation in a 2-way vote

NO Deal 34%
Deal vote 32%

Aynsley Taylor**@SonOfSteel Replying to @davidallengreen

Unless he wants to go cap in hand to the EU for an extension
...
David Allen Green*@davidallengreen*

The "going cap in hand to the EU" may become the "going cap in hand to the IMF" of this political generation.

< yes, I remember the IMF days. We may need to ask the EU for help too if our economy crashes >

Raphael Hogarth @raphael_hogarth
Very interesting line in this. Arlene Foster says she doesn't mind whether the deal is Canada-style or a Norway-style, so long as GB and NI have the same rules. Another sign that the emerging majority in the Commons is for a softer, not harder, Brexit.
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/arlene-foster-interview-our-message-to-mrs-may-is-clear-we-cannot-accept-your-brexit-deal-qwfn0pwbc
Arlene Foster interview: ‘Our message to Mrs May is clear: we cannot accept your Brexit deal’
Having grown up in the Troubles, the DUP leader is deadly serious about defending the Union

Nick Boles MP @nickboles
This confirms what I learned from private conversations with DUP MPs: that they would be comfortable with a Norway Plus deal as it keeps all parts of the UK together every step of the way

I am sorry now, castigate me if you wish.

BUT, the FPTP system has meant that political discourse/information is not important for many voters now. Red/Blue, Safe seat?

What is the point anymore?

So the debate is stifled, purely because there is no reasonable voice out there that can ever make it to Westminster and represent those with alternative voices.

I really dislike the FPTP system, but it is what it is. Democratic it is not though IMO.

Arlene Foster should be sent to Coventry, lol. She is the mastermind of a lot of this angst, when NI as a Province voted to stay within the EU.

Who is she to dictate our futures.

Do Scots want to go to NI with such frequency that a bridge is justified?

I actually agree with Boris ... up to a point. There is a lack of political will here, but possibly because the only way to pay for a bridge is with English money ...

The long discussed Italy-Sicily bridge suffers from the same lack of enthusiasm from the North that would have to pay for it. There's hardly queues of lorries - certainly out of Sicily.

Are the ferries to Stranraer and Cairnryan full to the gills with NI people wishing to go to Scotland. There are airports too.

Sounds like absolute wishful thinking, or ramping up the faithful to me.

One of the reasons that the Garden bridge was so unpopular was that nobody could explain why it was the best use of funds available. Is this the most effective way to spend £billions in Scotland and Ireland?

I wouldn’t trust either Johnson or Foster to make that decision.

ROI should claim EU funds to build a bridge from Rosslare to Roscoff in France so.

Let the UK and NI be separate. If that's what they really want.

One of the reasons that the Garden bridge was so unpopular was

Because it was simply a shit idea that didn't really bring many benefits and would cost the economy a substantial amount.

Why does that pattern seem strangely familiar?

{Arlene Foster should be sent to Coventry,}
Surely Coventry haven't been that bad?

Figure of speech Le Clerc.

Nothing to do with Coventry at all lol.

YouGov: Brexiters & Trumpers share some conspiracy theories

But mostly only those about immigrants

• V few Brexiters believe the anti-Vaxx or Climate Change conspiracy theories, whereas many Trumpers do.

It suggests that of the US hard right themes, only xenophobia travels well to the UK - same in Germany, btw
............

"The government is deliberately hiding the truth about how many immigrants live in the country"

Brexiters 47% vs Remainers 14%

Trump voters 44% vs Clinton voters 12%
............

“Islam Immigration to this country is part of a bigger plan to make Muslims a majority of the country’s population"

Brexiters 31% vs Remainers 6%

Trump voters 41% vs Clinton voters 3%

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/23/study-shows-60-of-britons-believe-in-conspiracy-theories

2016’s Brexit vote brought a surprising unity to the EU27, and that tough stance has not wavered since

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/24/eu-wont-miss-britain-after-brexit

... ask for their top Brexit takeaway so far, and the most common response is:
EU solidarity matters, and it works.

That, and some surprise at the UK’s ineptitude.

“It was clear to most Europeans that the Brexiters’ promises were empty,”
said Anna-Lena Högenauer of Luxembourg’s Institute of Political Sciences.
“Most, though, thought it was just politics, that there was some kind of plan behind the rhetoric.”

< yes, so did we at first >

The discovery that there was not, Högenauer said, was something of a shock.
“The UK basically jumped into the ocean blindfold, and started paddling round in circles.

It was almost like it expected the EU not just to say what Brexit should look like,
but to devise a version of it that would suit Britain.”

Brexit has also had an impact on the continent’s Eurosceptics, he added.

“It’s striking. Before and right after the referendum, the talk was Frexit, Nexit, Czexit.
It all stopped very quickly.
In France, Marine Le Pen wanted to leave the EU, then the euro, now she wants to leave neither.
No one wants to.”

First, Lequesne said, Britain’s experience “has shown how complicated leaving is.

Second, Brexit has boosted popular support for the EU.”
October’s Eurobarometer survey shows that 68% of respondents feel their country benefits from EU membership, the highest level since 1983,
while 66% – a majority in every state – said they would vote to remain in any exit referendum.

< the Uk is the odd man out >

So the process so far has been determined by two key factors:

the EU’s unity, and Britain’s fundamental, and insoluble, dilemma.

“The EU forced it to choose between breaking the political promises made by Brexiters,.... or incurring significant economic harm.
It couldn’t.”

It is a view echoed in several capitals.
In Berlin, said Speck, there was “irritation and surprise at the chaos” across the Channel.

“Everyone reads the UK papers here.
We saw it all, every comment, every contradiction ...
People were laughing – rolling their eyes – at some of the most extreme, the most arrogant, stuff.”