Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

971 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/11/2018 11:43

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
38
BigChocFrenzy · 24/11/2018 16:41

merry If the HoC is totally gridlocked in early 2019, I could then see a PV as a way out, but with the main options:

Remain vs No Deal
or an STV system for Remain vs WA vs No Deal

However, we have to know first if Remain is possible and under what conditions
The EU may just want an end to this chaos

Icantreachthepretzels · 24/11/2018 16:42

We're just going to have to agree to disagree. Like I said - it doesn't matter what we think. They will do what they want in the end and we will suck it up because we have no choice.

merrymouse · 24/11/2018 16:55

I think there is a clear difference between voting in a referendum and voting in a general election. Referendums are not part of the way the U.K. democracy works and I don’t think it’s undemocratic for elected representatives to limit the options available - it’s just that if the limits you place on the referendum are at odds with public feeling it’s not really clear why you are having a referendum - just stop faffing around and make a decision.

jasjas1973 · 24/11/2018 17:05

BCF i think your making an argument for restricting voting rights?

We got into this mess via a referendum, we ve a minority Government and zero (at present) consensus.
Better now to get on with organising a PV or a GE, Parliament needs new instruction as there isn't a leader in gov who will make the decisions necessary.

But i think its time to move on and as PP said, agree to disagree.May doesn't read MN threads!

Icantreachthepretzels · 24/11/2018 17:11

May doesn't read MN threads

If she did I'm fairly certain we wouldn't be in this mess. I'm sort of surprised that one of her advisors doesn't keep an eye on it, though. the MN vote is a crucial one - hence why all the politicians come on for web chats. It's as good a place as any - and better than some - for keeping an ear to the ground.

They can't though - otherwise we wouldn't always be months ahead in understanding ramifications and calling outcomes.

jasjas1973 · 24/11/2018 17:12

Well Well... Foster just said she'd rather Corbyn in power than vote for this WA !
The backstop has to go!

Boris at their conference too!

BigChocFrenzy · 24/11/2018 17:13

Tony Connolly (RTE): Brexit and the DUP: Triumph or disaster?

Fascinating analysis
Suggests the DUP were only casual Brexiters who never expected Leave to win - like Bojo - and are now stuck

https://www.rte.ie/amp/1012997/

It now seems astounding to read the DUP manifesto from 2014.
...
"The DUP recognises that the Single Market is one of the European Union's most transformative assets.
We want to maximise the economic opportunities that it presents for Northern Ireland.

"As a region of the UK, Northern Ireland is now part of a Europe that is better connected than ever before, by air, rail, sea and online.
With better connectivity there is an inherent potential for economic growth, via the free movement of labour, goods, capital and services.
[The DUP] wants to help businesses and individuals in our local communities to exploit this potential.
....
One DUP member told researchers the party was "gobsmacked" when the referendum results rolled in.
None of the members seriously thought the Leave side would win.

Rather than wearing the expected mantle of "noble losers", the DUP suddenly had to defend a policy it only half believed in.
< like Bojo >
...
But an even more significant threat to the DUP has now emerged.

This week^ a range of business organisations, trade unions and the Ulster Farmers Union (UFU) have come out in favour of the Withdrawal Agreementt, even if it raises the prospect of checks on goods going from GB to Northern Ireland.

It is important to stress that for some organisations the Withdrawal Agreement only looks good if the sole alternative is No Deal.

But the fact that the Northern Ireland business community and, in particular the UFU, have always been seen as a natural constituency for the DUP, has made this an extremely uncomfortable moment,

and the response from the party has not been subtle.
...
"This is reminiscent of the Unionism of old - besieged, insecure, defensive and distrustful.

"From the DUP’s perspective, Brexit simultaneously represents an unanticipated moment of political opportunity and of existential threat."

DGRossetti · 24/11/2018 17:18

I wonder if this is how Yugoslavia felt after Tito went ?

It's entirely possible that the only thing keeping the "U" in UK going was our membership of the EU.

Dark forces have been awoken.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/11/2018 17:21

jas NO. I am against subverting democratic votes.

I am objecting to restricting voting options if there eventually is a PV
I am objecting to a stitch-up
To only allowing voters those opions that that Remainers - or Leavers - thnk they should have

It would be outrageous to omit either Remain or No Deal, when these are the current 2 favourite options,
by a wide margin

I am also objecting to rerunning a referendum, unless the HoC is totally deadlocked in say early 2019

Otherwise, we are just saying we don't like the result
and telling people to keep voting until they vote the "proper" way

1tisILeClerc · 24/11/2018 17:46

The vote was taken and a decision was made so to 'preserve' democracy the UK must leave.
As has become apparent there was a fair amount of 'doctoring the truth' and probably external influence. If course many bought into the lies, at least to some extent. Taking it back to the public is unlikely to get a 'true' result as some won't want to change their views and new campaigning would still under suspicion as the full extent of the 'influence' has not been established and it may never be.
The government needs to take control and decide and be held responsible.
Sadly 'remain' would be sensible, but is unlikely and 'selling' it to the country would be a complete U turn and funding 'bribes' like a noticeable and immediate injection for the NHS and industry while possible would be impossible to get agreed within government.
The government have lied once, and have lost the trust of the UK.

Icantreachthepretzels · 24/11/2018 18:01

It would be outrageous to omit either Remain or No Deal,

The thing is - I really wouldn't be surprised if they did omit Remain from a people's vote. Outraged - yes. Surprised - no. Able to do anything about it? no.
Would I ever vote again - of course I would. And if I chose not to - that would be my look out. I would have no one to blame but myself.

When dealing with the people we have in government at the moment, claiming something would be so outrageous they can't possible do it is pointless. They manage to defy all logic and expectation. If they want to do something - they'll do it.

I would also bet that - following a referendum that included no deal, in which no deal won - shortly after the ramifications kicked in a law would be passed that a government cannot put to the people an option that they know will tank the economy. What would that mean for democracy? If economy tanking options remained popular?

bofsy1 · 24/11/2018 18:25

Tony Connelly is one of the most underrated commentators/journalists on Brexit. I've been keeping an eye on him on RTE.ie.

He is absolutely brilliant at breaking it all down with facts.

UK journalism has been treacherous and polarised, with soundbytes not facts. That is a despicable outcome for all.

bofsy1 · 24/11/2018 18:27

www.rte.ie/author/822154-tony-connelly/

merrymouse · 24/11/2018 18:28

mobile.twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1066391764666380288
Stephen Bush

@stephenkb
·
23m
Complaining about Gibraltar and voting to leave the EU is like wanting to eliminate the deficit by 2020 and then complaining about cuts to tax credits: what did you think was going to happen?
10
42
80
Stephen Bush
Stephen Bush
@stephenkb
·
21m
It may be that the benefits to the rest of the United Kingdom outweigh the cost to Gibraltar but ultimately once Spain has an EU veto and the UK does not, that will change things for the Rock's future.

DGRossetti · 24/11/2018 18:36

www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/boris-johnson-calls-scotland-northern-13638039

dailyrecord.co.uk
Boris Johnson calls for Scotland to Northern Ireland bridge in Brexit attack
David Young
6-7 minutes

Boris Johnson has called reiterated his call for a bridge to be built linking Scotland and Northern Ireland.

During a blistering attack on the draft Brexit deal at the DUP conference in Belfast, the former Foreign Secretary previously backed plans for a £15m link.

The arch Brexiteer blamed an "absence of political will" for not moving forward with the plans.

He said: "It is a far shorter distance than that covered by some bridges these days - look at Shanghai to Ningbo.

Boris Johnson with DUP leader Arlene Foster in Belfast (Image: Getty Images)

"The problem is not the undersea Beaufort's dyke or lack of funds.

"The problem is an absence of political will."

The claims came as Johnson called for the Irish border backstop to be "junked" as he warned that the draft Brexit deal was in danger of turning Northern Ireland into an "economic semi-colony" of the EU.

The Tory MP received a warm welcome at the DUP conference in Belfast as he demanded the scrapping of the contentious proposal that could see Northern Ireland aligned with EU regulatory rules post-Brexit.

After a week that saw the DUP refuse to support the Government in Commons votes to signal their anger at the draft withdrawal text, Johnson stressed the need to maintain the Conservatives' "crucial" confidence and supply deal going forward, warning of ruinous consequences for the UK if Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn came to power.

"And so to our allies in the DUP, I hope that you agree that it is absolutely vital that we keep this partnership going and that we are not so complacent as to abandon the government of this country to a man whose avowed policy is to break up this country," he said.

"And we should work together to ensure that the whole UK - Northern Ireland included - can seize the opportunities of Brexit."

Johnson said the UK was on the verge of "making a historic mistake".

"If we are not careful, we are going to stay in the customs union, we are going to stay in the single market, we are going to be rules takers," he said.

"Unless we junk this backstop, we will find that Brussels has got us exactly where they want us - a satellite state.

"We will continue to accept the terms under which they have a surplus in trade in goods with us of £95 billion. But with no power, no British influence on those terms. We won't be able to do free trade deals of any value or significance."

Johnson said the EU had achieved a "very clever trick" by making Northern Ireland an "indispensable bargaining chip" in future negotiations, noting the reference to the potential need to label goods from Northern Ireland UK (NI) under the backstop proposal.

"Indeed if you read the Withdrawal Agreement you can see that we are witnessing the birth of a new country called Ukni," he said.

"Ukni is no longer exclusively ruled by London or Stormont. Ukni is in large part to be ruled by Brussels.

"And Ukni will have to accept large swathes of EU regulations now and in the future.

"On lawnmower noise, on the labelling of sardines, on the use of coins and tokens that may be deemed to resemble a Euro.

"And on the use of personal recreational watercraft. And nowhere has a more illustrious history than Northern Ireland when it comes to the creation of recreational watercraft.

"The Titanic springs to mind, and now is the time to point out the iceberg ahead."

Johnson said the deal will would leave the UK facing a "Hobson's choice" of unthinkable options.

"If we wanted to do free trade deals, if we wanted to cut tariffs or vary our regulation, then we would have to leave Northern Ireland behind as an economic semi-colony of the EU and we would be damaging the fabric of the union," he said.

"With regulatory checks and even customs controls between GB and NI on top of those extra regulatory checks down the Irish sea that are already envisaged in the Withdrawal Agreement.

"No British Conservative government could or should sign up to anything of the kind, and so our answer at the moment is rather desperately to make sure the whole UK stays in the backstop with the EU having the power to decide whether or not we can ever leave and why should they?"

Boris Johnson compared the draft Brexit deal to the Titanic during his attack on the withdrawal plan (Image: Getty Images)

Johnson said the EU would have no incentive to let the UK leave the backstop arrangement, noting that the multibillion-pound divorce bill would have already been paid.

"This deal risks yet further economic and political humiliation," he added.

"We are locking ourselves in by treaty and making it impossible to negotiate our way out in the second half of the talks.

"This is not what people of the United Kingdom voted for. It is self-evidently not taking back control of our laws."

Johnson called for a "sensible agreement", but added: "We need to junk the backstop and agree that neither side will introduce a hard border in northern Ireland.

"Both governments have already been clear that they have no such intention, as Michel Barnier has said himself the technical solutions do exist, and the whole subject should be remitted to the discussion of the future economic partnership where it properly belongs."

He again argued for a "super Canada" style trade deal with the EU, and urged a rethink on the timeframe for paying the divorce bill, arguing that half should be withheld until 2020.

"I have never known a major EU negotiation not to conclude with the financial settlement, and we need to restore the proper order and incentives," he explained.

Johnson said there was a need for a dedicated Government secretary of state with responsibility for planning for a potential no deal, which would see the UK operate under World Trade Organisation trading terms.

He added: "We need urgently to recover our confidence and our self-belief, and to stop treating Brexit as if it were a plague of frogs, or a murrain on our cattle, or some adverse weather event that had to be managed."

prettybird · 24/11/2018 18:39

This is interesting about how to address second referendums and how to "change people's minds".

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/10/19/asking-the-public-twice-why-do-voters-change-their-minds-in-second-referendums-on-eu-treaties/

My SNP councillor repeated the trope that Ireland and Denmark were made to vote again until they "voted correctly" Hmm, rather than the fact that their specific (realistic) concerns were addressed (that didn't breach the 4 Pillars). I didn't have a chance to challenge him.

To be fair, the discussion was more about the risk of the SNP calling for a second vote being that a successful Yes Indyref vote would be challenged.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/11/2018 18:40

pretzels No, there would never be any workable law to restrict what the public can vote for
.... as long as we remain a democracy

Misuse: It could - and would - be used to e.g. ban tax increases for the rich, or more workers' rights, nationalisation , i.e. any policies the very wealthy don't like.

Practical: Parliament can repeal any law that a previous Parliament made

Democracy means allowing people to vote against their own interests
The alternative is worse

Icantreachthepretzels · 24/11/2018 18:46

Yes a future parliament can always repeal - but that doesn't mean, following national collapse and regime change they won't create laws that try to stop such a thing ever happening again. Doesn't mean it would be a good idea forever and all time. Giving the PM Henry VIII powers was a very bad idea - and pretty undemocratic. They already did that.

1tisILeClerc · 24/11/2018 18:52

Having completed that bridge in China, they have admitted it is a massive white elephant of a vanity project and will never recoup it's cost.
Do Scots want to go to NI with such frequency that a bridge is justified?
Or Vice versa?
While talking things up, no actual mention of industry that might spring up that can outperform the EU or anywhere else.
Bear in mind that these mega plans need to be on the starting grid in 4 months time.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/11/2018 18:53

pretty Changing voters' minds must come before a 2nd ref.

NS is being very sensible, resisting activist pressure to call for IndyRef #2 until she

a) knows if / when / how we Brexit and
b) has left a decent interval since Indy #1 and
c) is confident she can win !

I thought the SNP plan then for independence was not too convincing .... until an bottomless chasm appeared where the Brexit plan should be !

Indy#1 was in 2014 and the No campaign claimed this was the only way to stay in the EU

So, Indy #2 in say 2020 would be 6 years later and justified by Brexit shattering a key promise

merrymouse · 24/11/2018 18:59

Generally governments don’t call referendums when they don’t support the change to the status quo and don’t have the foggiest what the change would involve.

I don’t think Cameron should take all the blame as parliament also voted to have a referendum despite a majority supporting remain.

merrymouse · 24/11/2018 19:07

Why was a bridge across the Thames supposed to cost £46 million if a bridge between Scotland and Ireland would only cost £15 million?

merrymouse · 24/11/2018 19:08

Is it a typo?

bofsy1 · 24/11/2018 19:16

Honestly, this Brexit drama is becoming more and more bizarre by the day.

But anyone with half a brain can see that BJohnson is milking the DUP for all it is worth. The DUP are two faced idiots IMO anyway. Their base is business and farming, in fact Snarlene is married to a farmer and sorted a mint out with the cash for ash too, which I understand she apologised for at conference today. WTF are they on?

lonelyplanetmum · 24/11/2018 19:23

More and more bizarre. Spam really is affected.

www.insidermedia.com/insider/midlands/major-jobs-cuts-revealed-at-food-giant-after-continued-losses