What does No Deal really mean?

[SmiledWithTheRisingSun]

Interesting post about what No Deal really means:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156574902745499&id=543450498

Nope, won't let me read it without signing in.

Arrrrgh sorry try now?

m.facebook.com/anneli.howard?fref=nf

It's the lady's post on 17th Nov - think it's public.

Again, it wants me to log in to Facebook to read it. Can you open the story up outside FB and cut and paste the link?

I've seen it on my FB

Too wordy and hand-wringing.

To paraphrase
No Deal
Means No Deals of any sort with anybody about anything.

And then being at the mercy of the whole WTO and Trump and MBS and Xi

Even the muppet Corbyn has realised that No Deal is a bad thing

Thank you for the paraphrase @Talkinpeece . If this is news to anyone they need to get themselves informed.
Start with 3BlokesinaPub on YouTube.
And write to your MP.

This is what a "no-deal" brexit means-

The findings of a cross-Whitehall briefing, published in January, which estimated that a no-deal/WTO Brexit would have an adverse impact on GDP over a 15-year period, reducing it by 7.7%.

economia.icaew.com/news/august-2018/chancellor-says-no-deal-brexit-will-damage-uk-gdp-for-years-to-come

That means 7.7% less for the NHS, education, the police, welfare, the military, and everything else our government pays for. Who the Hell would vote for that?

Yaralie - Well that's just a prediction based on a whole lot of guess-work.

Even if true, the economy being 7.7% smaller than it otherwise would have been over 15 years will be hardly noticeable. Historically, since the UK (or any other country for that matter) has not followed the best possible economic policies our actual growth has always been, and always will be, less than the maximum possible. If only we had know what the optimum policies were over the last 100 years the UK economy could have been 100% bigger. I can't say I've noticed any hardship because it isn't? Have you?

To take an actual real-world example, the UK economy is, today, approx. 13% below trend since 2008 (the Great Financial Crash)
linky: www.economicshelp.org/blog/7501/economics/the-great-recession/
graph about 1/2 way down - called output gap.

That 13% (over 10 years) craps all over your potential 7.7% over 15 years. It kicks it in the balls and slaps it's face in the most humiliating way.

Since 2008 have you noticed people dying of starvation in the streets? Has there been much wailing and gnashing of teeth? Have plagues of frogs and locusts stripped the earth barren?
No.

So we have already 'suffered' far worse that your worst prediction and we're all still alive. Not only that we have managed to absorb about 5 million migrants and give them all jobs. We've got record high levels of employment and record low levels of unemployment. In short, we've never had it so good. And that is during a period of 13% growth gap over 10 years (which translates to roughly 19-20% over 15 years. Your scary prediction is only 1/3 as bad as we've already had. I fart in it's general direction.

There are far more homeless people in the street since 2008.

The NHS is buckling already (I work in the NHS and know how bad it has been since 2008)

Great use of sarcasm outside.

You are being sarcastic, right?

I'm sure outside is being sarcastic. No one sensible could possibly think that.

Outside is popping up on these threads full of inexpert "expertness" which don't stand up to scrutiny. Engage or ignore. Also queried whether my wartime parents had fought for the Nazis. That's the level of debate if you don't agree with Outside.

There was a thread where an op talked about an English city she'd visited which had homeless people camping on the street. Several of us were convinced it had to be our city.

There was another thread where 2 British posters living in Germany spoke about the difference in the countries...

Widespread use of food banks being unthinkable
Clean, efficient public transport
A health service that works
Vs
Visible decline
Shabbiness
When they visit the UK

What jumped out at me is what they said:
"I wept at the difference when trying to get a doctor's appointment"
"It is heartbreaking for a Brit to see"

But yeah a 13% difference in GDP over a decade is unnoticeable

Ahem

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2018/apr/11/deaths-of-uk-homeless-people-more-than-double-in-five-years

My small midlands town has several rough sleepers now - 8-10 most nights. I never remember seeing any until about 6 years ago.

Also, it depends how you’re measuring employment. The dramatic increase in in-work benefits plus foodbank usage by working families suggests that these jobs might not be full time

The Boris comment might be close to the mark. I originally thought you were Arron Banks, proofread by someone who speaks English (the odd ‘ slipped through), but now I know you’re a heartless Tory.

And I’m not suggesting all Tories are heartless. Some, though, definitely are.

One big problem with no deal that the extremists don't mention is how it is likely to affect some [people terribly. I don't know who they are but a reduction - they estimate a large % of our economy for "up to 50 years" probably means some people won't be very much affected but some people will have the rug pulled under their feet. That may not be me, and it certainly won't be Rees Mogg, but I am not prepared for it to happen to people. Look how areas and people have suffered when we have lost industries in the past.

I'm not in the UK so won't be affected, but looking from the outside it seems like 'the bottom of the heap' there has already expanded to include all sorts of people who at one time would have had jobs that allowed them to survive without top-ups from the benefit system. Those (mostly financially secure) people who hand-wave away the predicted downturn seem not to care about how any downturn will affect people who're already hanging on by their fingernails.

Seeing as austerity (which the Tories say was needed due to the events of 2007-8) is probably what delivered the balance to the Brexit vote, it's ironic that a certain poster says that nobody has noticed the effects of 2008. Let alone the very real fact of the hardship caused to so many by austerity.

What also needs bearing in mind is that the UK has not actually left yet, and still has 4 months to go.
There are leavers who 'crow' about the EU failing. Yes the economy is not as bright as might be hoped but most are still on an upward trend. So far in the UK every prediction that is reliable has been downward.
Jobs may be at a 'high' but the VALUE of the jobs has fallen. Sales may be up, but much of this is in preparation for the uncertainty ahead. Businesses that would normally see a steady stream of work are reporting orders until March then a significant drop after that.
Warehouses may be full, or space has been reserved for the New Year, but until there is confirmation of what will happen in April, there is no point in building more capacity if a deal is struck or remain happens.

fullfact.org/economy/uk-economic-growth-higher-europe/

OK so my trend was wrong.
Thanks.