What does No Deal really mean?

[SmiledWithTheRisingSun]

Interesting post about what No Deal really means:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156574902745499&id=543450498

[BubblesBuddy]

Brexit came about because a few MPs, not all of them Conservative, hated the EU. This goes right back to the 1970s. They then destabilised John Major. Then there was Nigel Farage who, with the help of the media, pushed leave for all it was worth. All he had to do was push a few nationalist buttons and get a few easy to remember slogans sorted out, and he was flying. No idea about how it was to be achieved though. No thought as to what it might mean to jobs and the economy. Just empty words and rhetoric.

I don’t think many leave voters really thought austerity caused them to vote leave. It certainly wasn’t about people sleeping rough. It was a politically driven ideology, and power seeking individuals, that told people their jobs were taken by EU migrants, their taxes went to the EU for no return, we had no say in the laws of this country because they were ruled by the EU and we should be able to trade with whatever country we wished and EU migrants were first in the queue for housing, NHS appointments and school places. This is mostly rubbish of course but the British public took readily to this propaganda.

It suited some, particularly the elderly who are more likely to vote, to hark back to a golden era when everything was better. That’s rubbish too of course. Rationing after the war was hardly a golden era or inflation approaching 15% in the 1970s.

So NoDeal cuts us adrift with no trade agreements in place. No import and export agreements through borders and total uncertainty about the future. Firms who export to the EU from here will find it a lot more difficult to do this ,as they would if they import components from the EU. Look forward to a big exodus of firms when they abandon manufacturing and trading bases here. There is a reason why the CBI has welcomed the May proposals. They get some certainty for the short term future. Crashing out with No Deal more or less guarantees industrial and employment chaos. The only way to help those who need it is to keep employment flourishing. Without that, the tax take falls and so will government spending. That’s heading towards a recession and we don’t want that - for anyone’s sake.

[LillianGish]

I think the short answer is that Project Fear will become Project Reality - and no amount of slogans on buses will be able to convince even the people who voted for it that it's OK. Nor will the government have the convenient scapegoat of the EU to blame its woes on. And if it happens there will be no transition period so I think the effects will be felt quite quickly.

[Daddybegood]

Well said bubbles buddy, except some will benefit from crashing the economy. Crispin Odey reportedly made £300million on the night of the referendum by shorting sterling and would dearly love to see a similar sterling crash on 29th march. Hedge funds make money on the way up and the way down. They make billions by trading volatility and exploiting mispriced opportunities.
Similarly all those who benefit from offshore tax havens, particularly investment trusts, in British overseas territories don't want the EU clamping down on them and forcing them to pay their taxes to the UK exchequer.
And finally there are the disaster capitalists who would love to see the economy crashing because they get assets cheaper and can invest in 'rebuilding'...
But for the other 99% of us who have jobs to lose, rely on NHS, police, peace in NI, education, pensions, medications, maybe like a foreign holiday once a year, a no deal scenario is truly dire...but it seems for some of the 99% waving a union Jack flag is worth the hit

[1tisILeClerc]

The 'theatre' that is the government's disclose this, reveal that, up and down will be racking up the hedge fund profits as just described above.
Possibility of a big crash at the end is just the icing on the cake (that 99.99% won't be getting).

The Union 'Jack' is only a 'Jack' when it is flown from a sailing vessel, otherwise it is just the union flag.

[Daddybegood]

...and here is that picture again that shows how happy another collapse in sterling (under a no deal scenario) will make some people

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/335am-june-24-2016-sterling-is-in-freefall-and-nigel-farage-is-beaming-picture-exclusive-1-5580360

[Daddybegood]

...and this guy has found another good reason to get on with brexit

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[OutsideInTheGarden]

nuttynutjob - "There are far more homeless people in the street since 2008.

The NHS is buckling already (I work in the NHS and know how bad it has been since 2008)"

If that is so then one might question the wisdom of unfettered immigration.
If your house was full would you invite 50 more people into it?

[OutsideInTheGarden]

talkstotrees - "My small midlands town has several rough sleepers now - 8-10 most nights. I never remember seeing any until about 6 years ago"

Yes. We are importing homeless people. They aren't really homeless, just in the wrong country.

[OutsideInTheGarden]

1tisILeClerc -"Jobs may be at a 'high' but the VALUE of the jobs has fallen. Sales may be up, but much of this is in preparation for the uncertainty ahead. "

I see. Ignore or dismiss any evidence that conflicts with your pre-determined views. Excellent.

What could cause a fall in wages I wonder? Perhaps a larger labour supply. My Ladybird book of economics has a page or two on supply and demand.
Apparently the laws of supply and demand don't apply to the labour force.
Sure.

[Talkinpeece]

People are homeless because of the Universal Credit and the benefits cap, not because of immigration.

There are 500,000 empty homes in the UK
There are 1,000,000 second and third homes in the UK

but because Landlords no longer get HB paid directly to them in UC areas, they will not take people on HB so the most vulnerable end up sleeping rough.

Go talk to your local homeless day shelter if you do not believe me.

EU migrants are heading back to the mainland and leaving us to pick our own veg and clean our own care homes and serve our own cafeteria meals.

[Talkstotrees]

ERGinthegarden doesn’t seem to understand the causes of homelessness.

This might help.

//www.crisis.org.uk/media/238700/homelessness_monitor_england_2018.pdf

[Talkinpeece]

ERGinthegarden is a troll. I can see that. But their views have to be rebutted for the sake of other posters.

[OutsideInTheGarden]

fishesaPlenty - what's the point of that graph? It's only over the last 3-4 years and doesn't tell you anything. So UK growth was higher and is now lower than the EU average.
The UK economy, not being in the euro, being far more internationally-focused, with a much larger financial services sector etc is not the same as the European economies.
Our business cycle has never been in lock-step with the other EU countries. It's an entirely meaningless graph.

[OutsideInTheGarden]

Talkinpeace - "
EU migrants are heading back to the mainland and leaving us to pick our own veg and clean our own care homes and serve our own cafeteria meals."

Yet more Remainer lies. Net EU migration is still running at 87,000 (up to March 2018). Yes that's right, 87,000 more EUers came to the UK than left it, last year.
Individual EUers may have left (I know a couple - both went for family breakup reasons) but more are still coming in.

You are either ignorant of this fact or are deliberately lying

[1tisILeClerc]

{I see. Ignore or dismiss any evidence that conflicts with your pre-determined views. Excellent.}
OutsideInTheGarden:
They were other peoples views from a variety of sources combined with a small thought about what could be happening.
In the end I don't give a damn what you think (if indeed you are capable of thinking) but I have concern for everyone else in the UK.

[prettybird]

People can make their own judgement about the trends of EU immigration.

https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/

Back to the levels of 2013 - while non-EU immigration remains steady.

[Mistigri]

^Yet more Remainer lies. Net EU migration is still running at 87,000 (up to March 2018). Yes that's right, 87,000 more EUers came to the UK than left it, last year.
Individual EUers may have left (I know a couple - both went for family breakup reasons) but more are still coming in.

You are either ignorant of this fact or are deliberately lying^

Those are estimates, not facts, and quite problematic ones too. Much better to look at the trend than the absolute numbers.

If you take the numbers at face value, net EU2 migration (migrants most likely to take unskilled jobs) is now close to zero. EU8 and EU14 numbers are falling sharply.

It's quite possible EU net migration will be close to zero before Brexit happens and that is not a good thing, at all, for the UK. Migrants tend to be younger and healthier than UK citizens; they are more likely to be in work and they often do shortage occupations that cannot be filled by locals.

[OutsideInTheGarden]

prettybird - EU net immigration is still extremely high by historical standards.
I don't deny non-EU immigration is absolutely sky-high and unsustainably so. Bliar started that off to rub the right's noses in diversity, in the process alienating Labour's core voters. This, combined with Brown wreaking havoc on the economy as Chancellor with his tax credits, raids on pensions whilst letting the financial sector run riot has caused untold and unnecessary damage that has taken a decade to even scratch the surface in terms of repairing it.

[AndhowcouldIeverrefuse]

Wow outside I hadn't read stuff like that since the referendum campaign. I am expecting the £350-million-a-week-for-the-NHS thing to be trotted out any time now

[Theworldisfullofgs]

outside immigrants bring far more in tax paid than take in benefits. Far more.

And automatic car washers ruin your paintwork.

[bellinisurge]

Feed the mansplainer and he/she will gush.
Outside isn't much for listening so don't bother anymore.

[nuttynutjob]

Garden, Carwashing- are you willing to do this type of work? Would your husband/wife or children do this work?

Abbatoir- most workers are EU migrants. Can you or any of your family members do this work and stay in employment? Are you or or family strong enough to withstand the psychological and physical damage of this work. Don't care if you're vegan or vegetarian because there would be someone in your family who had or is a meat eater.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/19/christmas-crisis-kill-dinner-work-abattoir-industry-psychological-physical-damage

Get out of your bubble life and live in reality.

[1tisILeClerc]

{EU net immigration is still extremely high by historical standards.}
Depends how far back in history you want to go but the inhabitants of the UK have come from all over Europe and Africa and have enriched the life and culture of the UK. Management of the ebb and flow of people who wish to move is necessary but it needs to be done intelligently and sympathetically, both of which UK governments have failed to do for many years.

[nuttynutjob]

Automatic car wash = ££££ when it breaks down, ££££ maintenance.