Westministenders: The One Where We Finally Get A Leadership Challenge?

[RedToothBrush]

Tick tick tick.

What do we think?

Yes? No?

Another week of wtf-ing at British politics.

Brexit: Draft agreement on future relationship right for UK, says May www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46300247

Just because the next EU stage is passed (with no objections from Spain now as rumoured) it still doesn't address getting it through Westminster though.

John McDonnell on Newsnight was minimising the scale of the changes to Theresa May’s brexit deal needed to get Lab support

Is it just me or is McDonnell everywhere? (Newsnight, Peston every other week, Sky news, mumsnet..)

Where is Corbyn? Growing pumpkins in his allottment?

Watching the PM's statement right now. OMG Keir Starmer's face

What is Starmer's face is like? I can't see the tv very well from my desk.

I could best describe his expression as a combination of incredulity and disgust. And as we know, he is not normally easy to read

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
EU/UK political declaration suggests that MPs will STILL have two choices for brexit future relationship after March 29

Either

1. Canada-style deal leaving NI in a special status breaking up Union

Or

2. Single market membership sacrificing ending free movement

That's it.

I also cannot bear how condescending the PM always inevitably is to the SNP - as soon as any SNP member stands up...

I can't decide if all these announcements to us followed by a Commons statement is necessary at each stage of the EU approval process.. or is it part of the marketing campaign?

Pippa Crerar @ pippacrerar
May specifically denying this. She says that U.K. has won a “spectrum” of choices, rather than binary Norway or Canada one.

Sam Coates Times@samcoatestimes
Yup. But there’s nothing I can see in the political declaration that suggests they are willing to either a) soften adherence to 4 freedoms b) change the agreement over how to avoid a hard NI border

There’s a lot of “maybe” future scenarios but also a lot of red lines reaffirmed

IDS' response demonstrates that even he doesn't understand the difference between the WA (which just "holds the place" allowing for transition and not too much disruption until the actual trade agreements are in place) and the future trade agreements that still need to be negotiated

I have to say, Barnier has been very clever - and considerate to the UK - in ensuring that the statement about the desired shape of the relationship is in a separate document to the Divorce Withdrawal Agreement. If he hadn't (and the UK numpties don't seem to realise this), then any one of the E27 (like Spain) could veto the WA, rather than it only needing to pass by QMV.

And as dh says, according to Twitter, it is somewhat ironic that having spent 2 years trying to bypass Barnier and divide and conquer the E27 Heads of State, May and her minions are now finding that some of the E27 heads of State are complaining that Barnier has been too soft

Thank you genie.

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Japan Times confirms Shinzo Abe will visit the UK in December

Japan Times confirms Shinzo Abe will visit the UK in December
To make sure Japanese car maker will still get the bungs promised?

The point about the proposed CU is that the EU demanded a "level playing field"
so that the UK could not gain an advantage by unfair competition without the rules that the EU must follow

That's why I see the similarities to a Norway--
Barnier shoe-horned in about 60 pages of SM rules the UK has to follow:^
workers rights - maternity, disability, working hours etc - environment, safety, product standards, food especially...
^
That is why the ERG hates this WA:^
Rules copied from the SM protect UK workers, the environment, the consumer^
It prevents an FTA with countries like the USA, which has rules which favour big business^
It removes FOM, but the ERG weren't genuinely bothered about that - their opposition to FOM is more for show^

^No it's not the SM
but it has a lot in common and is certainly not "just" a CU
It shadows the SM and the rules the UK has to follow would be updated dynamically as SM rules change
^
Barnier's Norway++ would have had all the SM plus most of the CU.
This WA has all the CU and most of the SM rules^
READ it through.

Remainer MPs hate it because it's not Remain
and because it stops FOM, also we lose our vote within the EU^

However, for business, the economy and travel under 3 months, most think there will be little change as far as our dealings with the EU go.

re non-EU trade deals & arrangements, the WA seems to be saying that the UK would be in effect taken under the EU wing and they will try to ensure the UK is treated as belonging to the EU.

That's one bit I'm not sure about - will all non-EU countries accept this, even with EU muscle applied ?

I want to know when the DUP's bung will get stopped
They aren't delivering what they were bunged for !

Not sure the DUP have been able to get hold of the bung anyway (even if it might have been was ringfenced, as with Stormont not sitting, there is no-one who can legally agree for it to be spent

Yup, pretty, the part relating to the possible future arrangement would count as a "mixed treaty" which any member can veto.

In fact, Spain have stated they wouldn't collapse the WA over Gibraltar, that their concerns could be addressed later, bilaterally with the UK

However, the concerns expressed by several of the E27 showed that Barnier went to the absolute limits of what he was allowed to concede by them all, once May chose the CU route

It's certainly not the simple CU she wanted ... basically it's not cake - the UK has to follow a lot of rules

However, for a CU, it is the most generous deal the Uk could get
and the EU are not going to make more than cosmetic changes to the WA to help May

During the transition, the negotiations could indeed end up with Canada++ or Norway++

• the direction of travel, as with these WA negotiations, depends on the British govt

pretty I gather the bill enabling NI civil servants to take extended actions is relevant here

together with the incestuous relationship - well, rl marriages - between top civil servants and the DUP

But on checking, it would appear that the (Westminster) government managed to release £430 million of the £1 billion bung - presumably to be spent by civil/public servants rather than agreed by politicians.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44438973

Starmer and McDonnell are lining up for leadership is my guess.

Starmer and McDonnell are lining up for leadership is my guess.

How will Corbyn go?

Essentially, the "Future arrangement" paper is not worth the paper it has been written on.

It is just a lot of hopeful thinking which can be vetoed by any of the E27 (and the UK) - but probably won't be, as all they need to do is veto the trade deal that will ultimately come out of it - which may or my not bear any similarity to what is written in it at the moment.

It's just a bone to throw at both the Brexiters and EU supporters in the UK and the E27 countries, who sure as hell don't want to see "the exact same benefits" for a non-contributing, non-member state. So it means all things to all men - and nothing

Leaked Political Declaration

LeClerc It says visa-free travel for temporary stays - that's normally under 3 months
So, that's your emergency travel covered

https://www.scribd.com/document/393865079/POLITICAL-DECLARATION-SETTING-OUT-THE-FRAMEWORK-FOR-THE-FUTURE-RELATIONSHIP-BETWEEN-THE-EUROPEAN-UNION-AND-THE-UNITED-KINGDOM