Westministenders: The One Where We Finally Get A Leadership Challenge?

[RedToothBrush]

Tick tick tick.

What do we think?

Yes? No?

Another week of wtf-ing at British politics.

red Both Bojo and Hammond are attending 🤔 and at least Hammond will be sending them to sleep speaking

www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-46281483

Senior Conservatives Boris Johnson and Chancellor Philip Hammond are set to attend the Democratic Unionist Party's (DUP) conference, the BBC understands.
...
It is understood that Mr Hammond will give a speech to DUP members on Friday night.
...
Former foreign secretary Mr Johnson is expected to attend the conference on Saturday.

I thought the deal would get slaughtered by Tory MPs, but most sounds persuadable:

James Forsyth@JGForsyth

3 Ministers who have spoken to some of those saying they will vote against the deal have all said the same thing to me today, that a lot of these MPs just want a reason to vote for it.
Question is, can the govt find enough fig leaves to whittle down this rebellion to 20 or so?

BFC Jeez why on earth is any Government go ahead with brexit ? it really does beggar belief.

Even (some) hardened leavers i know think we should stay now, due to the mess its causing.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-nicola-sturgeon-snp-tory-labour-theresa-may-coalition-eu-remain-leave-a8643746.html

Sending my warmest thoughts to Nicola Sturgeon, she might be my hero if she can kick labour up the backside and get them doing something .

Robert Peston @Peston
A view from the Tory benches of government capitulation tonight on finance bill

Jas I don't know any leavers who have been converted to remainers, even with this shitshow going on. I do know a lot of leavers who want a No Deal - I live in an area that was 73% leave, so I know a lot of leavers!

Nobody seems to want the WA, and I suspect that a PV would be closer between No deal and Remain than would be comfortable.

I'm not sure who said up thread about leavers dying off, but there are a lot of leavers in their 20s and 30s too.

I asked DM earlier what she'd vote for given the three options - No Deal. This is despite knowing that this could cause medication shortages - I'm dependent on medication, being without it could well be fatal. I suppose she always has been extremely critical of politicians who abandon their principles when it's inconvenient, so at least I know she's not hypocritical

I usually just lurk as RTB and DG et al are so knowledgeable, but I'm not sure the strength of feelings among ordinary leavers is taken into account with calls for a PV.

73% leave - that's pretty extreme.

BigChoc - unfortunately not - but I filled in the closest approximation to "wanker" in every case

ginandtonic - I've only ever directly come across one Leaver - he is the boyfriend of my cousin (a Commonwealth citizen), who, at the time of the referendum, was having to jump through hoops to get a visa to come and work in the UK (and live with him), so voted Leave because he thought that Commonwealth citizens would get visas more easily. He acknowledges he was conned made a mistake

ginandtonic not converted to Leave but think its now just a pointless endless mess & that they'd now vote remain, one is a IT specialist, a telecoms business owner and the 3rd, my cousin, a former barrister, told me in an email over the w/e.
My sister (teacher) is a dyed in the wool leaver, pugnacious woman, we've never got on, in fact cold have been a mix up at the hospital!
None of these fits the stereotype do they?

True most leavers i know haven't changed their minds and dont talk about it either, which possibly is telling!
Cornwall was 56% leave, lower than i thought.
Where voted 73% out?

gin I also think not many people have changed their opinion

• imo the polls change is mainly because of elderly mostly Leavers dying and young mostly Remain voters reaching 18

I've family in the NE
They still say just Leave without a deal, no problem
They are educated, teachers etc but they have switched off their brain for Brexit

Second highest in the country. I live there but work in London and there's a massive difference in attitudes and beliefs when it comes to Brexit.

South Holland - it's in Lincolnshire. The constituency with the highest vote was the next door one. They all think I'm strange as I voted remain

I live in an area that voted 70% Remain - which explains why I don't know any Leavers.

My cousin and her boyfriend (he's now a Remainer, and she, as a Commonwealth citizen now working on the visa she finally got also has a vote and will vote Remain) live in Manchester.

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
Is the big #brexit climbdown beginning?

Are the Brexiteers about to decide to 'buy into' the idea that Mrs May can fix the Irish border with technology? That unicorns do exist?

Mad? Let me explain... 1/Thread

First @tnewtondunn reports Brexiteers like Iain Duncan Smith and co are 'biting' on a No 10 briefing that "special arrangements" could fix the Irish border - ie 'technology'

Tom Newton Dunn*@tnewtondunn*
Max Fac is back... No10 says Cabinet today discussed the new “alternative arrangements” option to avoid the Irish backstop (which we revealed last night), and how technological solutions could do that. Fresh work now under way on it.
t.co/XMMCJNV7MM

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
Then FT's Laura Hughes says 'Gang of Five' are too /2

Laura Hughes @laurakHughes
Officials close to Brexiters in Cabinet (the famous five) say some of them are "feeling very positive" after PM promised to explore “technological” solutions to maintain a soft border in Ireland in place of a backstop.

Wow. Amazing....suddenly, after all these months of negotiating it seems like Number 10 has put it's hand down the back of the sofa and found a 'fix' for the border issue that has bedevilled these talks for all this time.

I love this quote particularly... /3

I also think not many people have changed their opinion

We know a few who have. Originally very strong leavers. We live in an area which has apparently seen the biggest change in opinion. They are talking openly about it and aren't closet changers.

BTW re Peter Foster thread above, he's been particularly good at spotting what's going on with the deal side of things and how it's being sold / spun.

It makes sense with how the DUP are throwing a hissy fit too. They realise its not just May who sold them out already (and it was pretty obvious for a long time that she would). It's also the sense that they will soon be sold out by others. And they are flexing muscles to remind everyone of their importance.

It won't work of course, because a deal was always about keeping the GFA.

red Belief in Unicorns Mk II could work, because this time it is the ERG who need to do the believing

Mk I version didn't work because Barnier & the EU had to believe in them and he's neither gullible nor delusional

Am I right in thinking the EU have already ruled out any 'max fac' nonsense?

Yes, Barnier immediately knew it as nonsense

No, it doesn't matter if the "moderate" wing of the ERG believe - or pretend to believe - in the max fac unicorn
That's just to give them a fig-leaf for agreeing to the WA

because, like most Tories, they see that this row and the attempts to topple May have already hit their poll ratings
and they are panicking
The main aim of the Tory party is always to stay in office

After Brexit, the EU is no more likely to agree a trade deal with max fac than before
So, the backstop will stay, as agreed.

The Moggsters, as the ERG Provisional wing, will never agree,
because they will never give up their dream of a USA FTA and Singapore-on-Thames

The British Conservative Party deserve a lengthy spell in opposition

https://spectator.us/british-conservative-party-opposition/

Brexit is not being done well because it cannot be done well;
the surprise remains that it is being done at all
...
Such is the madness into which the Conservative party has descended, however, that dozens of Tory MPs now scurry from television studio to television studio ... that you cannot believe a word this Conservative government says.

They deserve a lengthy spell in opposition;
the pity for the country is that this Labour party has no business being anywhere near power.

They deserve a lengthy spell in opposition;the pity for the country is that this Labour party has no business being anywhere near power.

Yep. We're totally screwed.

https://www.ft.com/content/34fcfce0-ecc9-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57

There were signs that Mrs May’s approach had driven a wedge into the Eurosceptic camp.

Mr Duncan Smith was infuriated by suggestions by some pro-Brexit colleagues he was working constructively with the prime minister in order to gain a peerage.

< who me ? 😇 >
...
Separately, Mark Carney, Bank of England governor, backed Mrs May’s draft Brexit deal on Tuesday,
telling MPs that it would “support investment” and would increase certainty for business.

He said the guaranteed transition period up to the end of 2020 gave greater clarity for companies to invest and spend.
He also welcomed the possibility to extend the transition if no permanent UK-EU trade deal has been agreed by the initial expiry date.

Mr Carney emphasised that leaving the EU without a deal and with no transition would leave many companies and workers “stranded” so that capital and their skills were unable to be used.^

This would represent a “negative supply shock” of a scale not seen for many decades.^^

While the financial crisis 10 years ago was mostly a sudden reduction in demand owing to fears that banks were about to go out of business,
for negative supply shock such as a no deal Brexit, “you would have to stretch back at least in our analysis until the 1970s to find analogies”

Gin,

This leaver did change his mind
www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/what-have-i-done-to-my-country-leave-voter-breaks-into-tears-as-he-apologises-for-backing-brexit/15/11/?fbclid=IwAR01TcZr_gGs0zbJdlSPlA8Rm5QeEww2XFAmj_r4a52NrbT3nabGCV2I_2U

Depressingly two of my friends have recently hinted that if there is a new vote they would consider voting leave rather than remain.

I don't really get their reasons but I think it's down to fatigue with the whole thing. Didn't want to get into it too much as I love them dearly and not worth it to me to have a heated debate, but it's made me feel quite disheartened and concerned about the push for a new vote.

I really think there is more risk from losing a new vote than from supporting getting the WA through