Westministenders: The One Where We Finally Get A Leadership Challenge?

[RedToothBrush]

Tick tick tick.

What do we think?

Yes? No?

Another week of wtf-ing at British politics.

Mrsr8 - why do you think we need to leave? You say people may die - so we need to try to stop this happening in a democratic way - a People's Vote. If we leave, we'll be out for generation. Our kids will have opportunities snatched away from them. People have changed their minds. Brexiters are dying out. We can win a People's Vote. And if we don't, we're no worse off than we would have been without one.

There's probably an analogy about wasting time deciding which fire extinguisher to use while the building burns down written somewhere. (Well, there is now )

Is Brexit an electrical fire, or a liquid fire ?

user I really do not think we can win a PV.
I have the feeling, just like Mrs8, that only the full force of leaving and its economic consequences would concentrate minds.

DGR Brexit seems to be wildfire from the Game of Thrones awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Wildfire

ElenadeClermont - but if the WA goes through then we will not feel the full force of leave and its economic consequences until 2020 as it's basically a can-kicking exercise. And then what?

It isn't a can-kicking exercise:
Transition is when we negotiate a new deal ... and despite what May claims, it will need to be extended 10 years !

Plenty of time even before 2022 for this hung Parliament to dissolve or for opinion in the govt to soften and go for Norway++
That is more likely than the ERG taking over, after they've shown what a hopeless rabble they are

If the deal goes through and we have a transition period, the end of that transition period should not be as bad as a no deal Brexit would be. Where bad is a relative term because you loses all your EU rights.
The magic trade deals that Brexiteers promised us may come to pass in transition and our preparations as a nation should be better. Again, relative to the batshit awfulness of No Deal.

Stretching analogies again ...

when I was little - 2, 3 years old, we popped down to Cornwall to see my DGM (Mums mum). She had a parrot in a cage ("Fred" ) which was a present from my Merchant seaman uncle.

Being me, I was fascinated, and teasing Fred a bit in his cage. My DF (who amazingly sometimes seemed to worry more about us kids than my DM ) said to my DGM that she should move the cage, so I didn't get hurt. She just said "If DGR goes too far, he'll know it, and won't do it again.". Sure enough, a few minutes later there was a poke, a nip, and a crying child who never put his fingers in the cage again. Because wise old Nan damn well knew that no amount of trying to explain things to me in a reasoned, measured way would make me change my behaviour.

It's very, very, very hard not to see the parallels with Brexit there. The only difference being my DGM and DM have now passed, and aren't seeing this shitstorm.

Yes, I know that No Deal would be a disaster that could shock the public into demanding immediate Rejoin
That seems Blair's main plan

I'm just not that ruthless

But in the meantime we all lose FOM - that is a massive loss for a significant number of people.

Except for those who can wangle a second passport somehow ... like Fartage's kids.

Part of the problem is that the government itself genuinely believe that there's some sort of magic wand if no deal happens. For them, we need no-deal to prove it really is that bad. Only on 30th March, when something that was working stops because of Brexit, and no amount of hyperbole, or fine speeches or HoC votes will get it working again will they realise.

I still think there's an element of the Bystander Effect in play here.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
DUP sources tell @EmmaVardyTV they're set to abstain on govt votes again tonight

But in the meantime we all lose FOM - that is a massive loss for a significant number of people.

I think that's gone anyway. Whether on 30th March 2018, or 2020. Generally it meant - and still means - nothing to Brexiteers except for a way of queue jumping.

user I am not advocating leave, I just cannot see how we can get out of it.

Those who advocate a NO DEAL have not given any indication as to what that means, am I correct here?

Whereas those who are of in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement are similarly goosed. Any positives? Well yes, it gives us a Transition Period to gather thoughts and make loads of FTAs with the world.

I don't think anyone knows much about anything TBH. It is a power play and the most vulnerable are being played like a fiddle. Keep them silent and without information maybe?

Personally I think we are being bullied by Brexiters who haven't a clue, and believe this is an anti May issue now, but I don't see much positivity from them either.

Baffled and bruised person here regarding all this.

user1471448556
I am repeating myself but anyway the rest of the house is too cold to work in so better to be typing here!
There is too much 'we are better than you 'cos we have an Empire' burned into far too many UK heads. The fact we are around the same as most other Europeans (or even worldwide) is one thing, and we squandered the Empire many years ago. This is of course reinforced by not having been 'occupied' in any living memory (omitting issues in NI for the purposed of this).
It is this mindset that needs to change to become truly 'European' which is an oblique legacy of German occupation. Europe, including most Germans didn't like it and would prefer to work together. There is certainly tension, it is not a bed of roses, but the threat of war is pretty remote.

The way to get out of leave is through a People's Vote. Democracy didn't end in 2016. A lot of leave voters are not getting what they voted for - they were sold a lie. We can push to stop this, or we can acquiesce and let it happen. I'm going for the former - I'm not keen on apathy ... I believe it's dangerous.

Sadly, in some ways, the best thing about the (well, this) WA, is that it seems Brexiteers hate it.

If we view happiness as a continuum, rather than a binary state, then childish as it may be, in the absence of my getting what I want, I'll settle for the unhappiness of Brexiteers at how things are going.

As the old joke goes: "You started it ..."

Don't just concentrate on a PV:
Concentrate on changing minds so we could actually win it !

We would need about 60% Remain in the polls to avoid another referendum after the next GE if we won narrowly
Best thing with 60% is that there's a fair chance the govt would revoke on its own

fieldgold
Those who advocate No deal are either pretty wealthy, possibly with investments abroad, or are so rabid that they don't care how bad things could get, quite easily. Reading through the governments preparedness notes suggest that things have a possibility of getting very out of hand even to having troops on the streets to quell violence.
FTAs while being brilliant as a soundbite are rather more difficult to come by, often taking 10 years or more to set up and several countries that could have been very beneficial to the UK have already suggested that things will not go easily.

The way to get out of leave is through a People's Vote.

Agreed. And the best way to get to the moon is to build a rocket. They both write easy, until you realise you haven't a clue how to do it. There's no mechanism in British politics for the electorate to do anything other than vote in properly convened elections (and even then, some people can't be arsed). You can march. You can petition. You can hire every single TV channels, and buy all the newspaper advertising you like. You can commission a searing drama series, starring Benedict Cumberbatch which achieves unheard of viewership of 100%.