Westministenders: The One Where We Finally Get A Leadership Challenge?

[RedToothBrush]

Tick tick tick.

What do we think?

Yes? No?

Another week of wtf-ing at British politics.

But this is all what May wants you to believe - that if we don't support this piss poor deal, we will crash out with no deal/no transition.

Exactly. This is Kerr’s view too.

by that time I expect the EU will have formally reorganised

bearing in mind the EU of 2018 is arguably not the same as the EU of 2016.

Colleague just sent me a Torygraph Opinion piece on DUP, entitled "The DUP are unpredictable, contradictory and defiant, but Mrs May needs them more than ever."

Second paragraph made me weep with laughter imagining Arlene's face as she reads it. "Historically, there is less common ground between the two parties than British politicians think. This is partly because Northern Ireland, while part of the United Kingdom, is nevertheless a foreign country; they do things differently there. And too few British politicians take the time to get to know these often sullen and apparently humourless individuals as they sit impassively below the gangway on the Opposition benches."

This is the thing, the DUP can make as many plots with ERG types as they like, but deep down they are not viewed as other British politicians, as equals. The toffs see them as foreign, just as they do everyone else in the north of Ireland.

Colleague just sent me a Torygraph Opinion piece

Have toilet roll shortages started already ?

This is the thing, the DUP can make as many plots with ERG types as they like, but deep down they are not viewed as other British politicians, as equals. The toffs see them as foreign, just as they do everyone else in the north of Ireland.

How many of us have seen the bowler-hatted Orange ones marching to show the world how "British" they are, whilst all of Britain looks on thinking "really ?".

Meanwhile, in a story tangential to these discussions, a Federal Judge in the US has torn Trump a new one ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46272666

"Whatever the scope of the president's authority, he may not rewrite the immigration laws to impose a condition that Congress has expressly forbidden," Judge Tigar added.

Now, if Trump was paying attention in dictator classes (and not many do) this is the point at which he declares that "laws are bad" ...

Personally, if you like a bit of Jung, it's interesting it happened the day the UK lost it's case to stop the A50 hearing in the ECJ.

Laws, eh ? What a draaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaag.

They would give us more time if they think we are actually likely to come to a decision
Not to reopen the talks with Corbyn starting from day 1

As we keep reminding oursleves, a PV would be very dangerous

Even the BBC had to report on the backlash to Mays speech ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46274118

Theresa May is facing a backlash after she said EU workers would no longer be able to "jump the queue" after Brexit.

(contd - contains Mike Galsworthy pic )

DG A US President is far more hamstrung by Congress than a UK PM is by the HoC
Most leaders of democracies have more cheks and balances on them than our PM

That is because the office of PM has inherited many of the former rights of the Monarch

Thank you. OhYouBadBadKitten.
Not being a woman I found the frequent jibes about men by one or two posters rather irksome. I fully appreciate that Brexit will affect many differently, but at this point creating yet more division by race/religion/sex simply makes resolution of the Brexit issues more difficult. Will lives of the 'average' husband+wife+ 2 children be improved by Brexit when the husband is made redundant from the factory, NO.
Will it be shit and cause a lot of extra tensions, YES.

Spanish Foreign Minister declares an independent Scotland would be welcome in EU

THE SPANISH Foreign minister Josep Borrell says that the government in Madrid would not stand in the way of independent Scotland joining the EU.

Speaking to Politico, the politician also said he thought the UK would break up long before Spain ever did.

“If they leave Britain within the accordance of the internal regulations," he said. "If Westminster agrees, we are not going to be more Papist than the pope. If Westminster agrees why would we be against it?”

He added: “I am very much worried about the unity of the United Kingdom than the unity of Spain. I think the United Kingdom will split apart before Spain. That is a clear sign of the United Kingdom’s weakness.”

The politician also revealed that Theresa May will be in Brussels tomorrow to meet with the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker.

With the withdrawal agreement backed by the EU and Downing Street, the talks in Brussels have moved on to the political declaration, which outlines the future relationship.

Borrell warned that Spain could withhold support unless there was an explicit statement that Madrid would approve any future trade deal with the UK covering Gibraltar.

He said: “Mrs May said that she will not agree with the withdrawal treaty ... without knowing the content of the political declaration about the future relationship.

“She has said she will not agree with one thing unless I know and agree with the other. Me too. I want to see both things. Maybe tomorrow. Mrs May is coming here.”

Borrell said that the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, was “trying to write a paper that fits everything together and makes [everybody] happy”.

He added: “We have always been working with one idea, an idea approved several times by the European council. On the future relations, it will not include Gibraltar.

Gibraltar is something apart ... Spain has to agree … we want it to be clear one way or another.

“I don’t mind about the instrument but I want it to be clear the future will be negotiated about Gibraltar with the agreement of Spain.”

In the run up to the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence, Spain made clear it would resist an independent Scotland's application to join the EU for fear of fuelling the Catalonian sepratist movement.

However, last year, Borrell’s predecessor as foreign minister, Alfonso Dastis softened Spain’s position.

“We don’t want it [Scottish independence] to happen,” he said in 2017. “But if it happens legally and constitutionally, we would not block it. We don’t encourage the breakup of any member states,

because we think the future goes in a different direction.”

The SNP MSP George Adam welcomed the comments from Borrell.

“This intervention confirms what people in Scotland already know – and demolishes a favoured Unionist scare-story.

“Independence will allow Scotland to be an equal partner within Europe – instead of being dragged out against our will by the Tories.

“That message of hope is increasingly powerful as the reality of a Tory hard Brexit begins to bite.”

David Mundell refuses to deny Scots will be worse off under Theresa May's Brexit deal

DAVID Mundell has refused to deny that Theresa May’s controversial Brexit withdrawal agreement will leave Scots worse off.

Appearing on the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland programme, the Secretary of State for Scotland would only say the consequences of May's deal would not be as cataclysmic as crashing out of Europe with no deal.

The draft agreement, published last Wednesday, triggered a crisis for the Government, with ministers resigning and leaving the Prime Minister facing a possible vote of no-confidence.

Of the 13 Scottish Tory MPs, just Mundell and West Aberdeenshire Andrew Bowie have said they’ll support the agreement when it comes to the Commons.

Mundell told the BBC show: "I'm supporting the deal because I believe a 'no-deal' outcome would be catastrophic for Scotland. I believe it would be a fundamental threat to the continuation of the United Kingdom

and therefore, in the round, you have to weigh up all the issues.

“These are difficult and complex judgements, but I'm not prepared to countenance a no deal outcome for Scotland.”

“So it's not the best deal, it's the least worst deal?” the programme's host Gary Robertson asked.

"Everyone is clear it's not a perfect deal. It's not as bad a deal as characterised. It contains many positive elements, elements we've talked about previously in relation to the rights of EU citizens.”

Robertson then asked the veteran politician: "You believe Scotland would be better off as a result of this deal?

Mundell replied: “I believe Scotland would be considerably worse off if there was a no-deal scenario.”

The presenter pointed out that the MP had answered a different question.

“I'm assuming you went into politics to make people's lives better are you saying that this deal will make their lives better?” he asked.

“It will make their lives considerably better than having a no-deal scenario and voting down this option,” Mundell responded.

Asked if it was the least worst option Mundell replied: “That's where we are now.”

He added: “We're heading for a meaningful vote in two or three weeks time when MPs will have to look at what are the alternatives to this deal."

Asked again to say if people will be better of as result of this deal, he replied: “What I can say is that people will be better off with this deal than a no deal which is the alternative”.

“It’s less bad than the alternative?” Robertson said. “That's the best you can tell people after two and a half years of negotiations?”

Mundell said: “I have just set out for you some of the very ... some of the positive aspects that this deal will provide in terms of business, providing that access to markets for goods in the EU

without tariff and quotas. That’s absolutely fundamental for Scotland’s businesses.”

The SNP said Mundell’s position was untenable.

“David Mundell makes himself look and sound more ridiculous with every day that passes,” MSP Tom Arthur said.

“First he indicated he would resign if Northern Ireland was given special treatment, then he reportedly voiced concerns about the proposed deal while in cabinet and now he has admitted

Theresa May’s plan will leave Scotland worse off.

“But still he clings to office, without a shred of principle or credibility.”

Scots LibDem chief Willie Rennie said Mundell was, at least, accurate: “The Scottish Secretary can’t bring himself to say the Prime Minister’s deal will make life better for people in Scotland,

and that’s because it won’t. Tearing ourselves out of Europe will hit every single Scottish household.”

Scottish Labour's Lesley Laird said Mundell was putting his party before his country: “Theresa May once believed that no deal was better than a bad deal. Now David Mundell is saying the exact opposite,

yet sees no conflict with his position in Cabinet.

“To back this bad deal as the only alternative to a no deal Brexit is to accept a false choice. Instead of leadership from Theresa May’s government we are getting brinkmanship."

She added: "Scotland deserves better than Tory ministers and MPs who slavishly put party first and the people second. Mr Mundell must resign if he is to retain even a scrap of credibility on this."

The great problem with that Matthew Pennycook's idea and similar ones from other Remainer MPs is
they don't affect A50

All they do is make No Deal even more painful and chaotic for the UK, if MPs run down the clock

It's the political equivalent of blowing up the govt emergency meds store, to pile on the pressure

It even gives the govt a chance to avoid blame after a No Deal crash

• they can claim the problems are because Remainers sabotaged their prep

and they wouldn't be entirely wrong

The WA is bad. The only way we can retain our current EU membership and rights as EU citizens is through a People's Vote. If we go with the WA, that's it - NEVER again will we have the same benefits. IF we then campaign to rejoin, we will have to take the Euro and Schengen - both of which are unpalatable to large parts of the UK population, so we may well be unsuccessful. Yes, the People's Vote is a risk BUT it's a risk worth-taking and it's what we should be pushing for right now. If the WA goes through, what's to stop the ERG pushing May out in April, installing one of their own and dismantling the WA? We need a People's Vote.

{Not to reopen the talks with Corbyn starting from day 1}
If the Labour party had been a credible opposition and had created a reasonably well worked out cunning plan that the EU could work with, it could have been whipped out of a pocket and presented to the EU team and say 'this is how we would move things forward'.
Instead we have old father time and another squabbling party.

can we leave off the Christian bashing please

I don't consider calling out Theresa May for being a cunt Christian-bashing as I don't consider her a Christian.

My (admittedly limited) understanding of the matter is that there's a lot more to being a Christian than just saying you're one. Compassion, love of your neighbour, forgiveness, protecting the weak - that sort of stuff. And I have no problem with that or the people that practice it ...

If the Labour party had been a credible opposition

But - like the Tories - the Leave/Remain split was sort of down the middle.

It's like someone whose partner has sold his house, where they live, against her wishes
and she's trying to make it as awkward as possible

She can invite her family from Australia to stay in their old house for Christmas
She can order a new kitchen and bathroom, to be fitted there

It doesn't stop the sale going through because she doesn't have that power;
it just costs her money and family aggro to cancel all that

No, we don't qualify for the Euro, so it can be put off for many years - like Sweden has done since 1994 ! - until we have the inner and outer rings

We can negotiate about Schengen too - the UK does have a lot of clout, probably enough to regain most of our optouts, especially if Rejoin happens during transition

• we were promised a "Fast Track" if that happens

Some polls still show Remain only 2% ahead of Leave.
That's less than the margin of error and could soon disappear in a PV if Farage, Bojo etc say "just leave, EU punishment, bla bla"

If we vote down the WA and end up with No Deal, then those Remainers and Brexiters alike must take responsibility for those who suffer from shortages of essential meds and food, for the job losses, for the bloody disaster.

We need a better plan

The conventional wisdom for decades was that the country would never risk prosperity and try to severe a relationship of 45 years,

like getting back our eggs from a 45-year-old omelette

Leavers didn't give up and they won .... for now

Mother We risk No Deal:

That's no transition, a cliff edge
with no flights, no ships, logjammed ports, possible shortages of meds and food, exports collapsing, unemployment shooting up by maybe 2 million .....

It would be a catastrophe that would send the economy spinning down and we might never recover
A high price to say we were right

No Deal is far far worse than a bad deal - which could even be changed later if we have a new govt / opinion
AT least, we have a transition for business to adjust, to make arrangements for glights etc to continue

If we win narrowly, expect to see the far right rocketing in popularity

Bigchoc - you say 'we need a better plan', but what should it be?
A better plan would not be accepting a rubbish WA in a kind of blackmail situation.

There are enough votes to defeat the WA

There are not enough votes in the HoC atm to have a PV - the DUP would vote with the govt against this,
as would 4-10 Labour MPs, possibly nearly all of them if Corbyn still opposes it

The PM could probably still refuse to ask for an extension, so the clock just runs down to No Deal

EVen if the PV returned a vote of Remain, I don't think in practice that a PM can be ordered by the HoC to rvoke

May either has to be toppled and repaced by a Remainer, maybe a crosśparty alliance, or convinced to Revoke