Westministenders: The One Where We Finally Get A Leadership Challenge?

[RedToothBrush]

Tick tick tick.

What do we think?

Yes? No?

Another week of wtf-ing at British politics.

But then, as an Atheist I hear self-proclaimed Christians like Theresa May and just feel a bit of sick in the back of my throat.

Ditto!

HopelesslyDevoted

On your DUP question...

But if UK has no deal or hard brexit, wouldn't NI be pragmatically better off having a special status at least temporarily?

Yes they would.

Wouldn't they be in a really really bad situation if they crashed out with rest of UK?

Yes

I thought NI voted fairly strongly to Remain so isn't this the opposite of what their constituents would want?

55% remain. However the border counties where Sinn Fein garner strong votes voted strongly to remain but the North Easterly DUP heartlands voted to, either narrowly or strongly, leave. North Antrim was more than 60% leave, IIRC. (I'm oversimplifying as I'm a bit short of time - at work...)

Have DUP given a view of what they would want to happen with NI in a hard Brexit/ no deal situation?

Don't think so. Unicorns and rainbows and all that.

I'm confused because they seem to be arguing for something that could be very bad for their constituents and contrary to what their constituents voted for.

A Brexit with no special dispensation for NI's unique circumstances - their history, ongoing protection of GFA, border with EU, significant proportionhaving Irish passports and identity - would be massively damaging to all of NI. It would arguably be more damaging to people in border counties than around Belfast. And it would be incredibly damaging to the GFA, but significantly the DUP were the only major political party in NI not to support it. But really all this comes down to the old Loyalist mantra of no surrender. The reality is that there are a lot more elderly Protestants than Catholics in NI but a booming Catholic birth rate means that the population is now 50/50 or slight Catholic majority. With every year that goes by the unionists voting majority gets slimmer, and soon it will be overtaken. At that point the GFA will uphold unification referendums in NI and ROI. So, seeing that writing on the wall what these DUP loyalist loonies (certainly not all unionists or even a majority of unionists) have decided is to use Brexit to throw a grenade at the GFA.

Or are DUP just maintaining this position as a bargaining tool but actually are fervently hoping a deal will be reached?

Nope. don't think they want a deal.

In interest of full disclosure, I also know some fervent republicans who voted to leave because they assessed that the furore over Brexit would lead to renewed political and perhaps literal violence and therefore to a united Ireland faster than otherwise.

I think I have a new hero. Apologies if already posted: bit.ly/2PDHmAR

DG I'm pretty sure all 27 would agree to extend if the UK had approved a WA, but with not enough time for EP approval

They've also said they would for a PV with Remain as an option

or a GE - but there I'm not sure if both Tory & Labour go into a GE with a manifeto saying they will push ahead with Brexit

What they have said several times is that they won't extend if the UK is still fighting with itself
They want Brexit either stopped, or carried through on time:

e.g. Merkel's "Lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende."

Somerville imo the DUP have seized on Brexit as their last hope of destroying the GFA and avoiding a United Ireland

That's why they are so desperate

Even destroying the GFA won't change demographics,
but they hope without the GFA they can return to their old gerrymandering and dominance over Catholics to delay the inevitable and maybe even avoid it somehow

So Labour don't bother voting to ease child poverty unless they think they will win.
Lazy and defeatist

Robert Pestonn@Peston*

Finally on this, Labour sources insist DUP did not give them advance warning of intention to vote with them on important Corbyn child-poverty amendment.
So the whips are seen by their MP colleagues as being guilty of complacency not gross negligence
...
I am told that @jeremycorbyn missed crucial vote because “he had number of meetings etc after CBI”. Oh dear

Yes I entirely agree, BigChoc.This DUP lot are naturally anti-EU anyway (it's the antichrist and all that ) but this really all comes down to the GFA.
A lot of English commentators have been analysing the DUP incorrectly all year, and I venture a guess that May did too.
Memories are long in NI, and plans for the future are even longer.

I've said this before I think but the issue for some Tories is to have foreigners with equal rights (even though EU citizens don't have representation in government other than at local level, FOM grants all EU citizens the same rights). That is unbearable for them. Foreigners must know their place. That's what the "jump the queue" comment was really about.

And imo, that doesnt reflect racism as such. More the way the British (English?) society is structured with that ability to look down on people who are above or under you. It’s the wish to put people in a little box and immigrants just do not fit any box (as in mc, wc etc..) and that is an issue. Because how do you know how to be towards them if they don’t fit the box?
Easier to make a new box for them, been an immigrant, and say that we can all look down on them. Basically creating a new box that does below the wc one.

DUP wanted to be seen to vote against government, but not necessarily have the government lose. And they hate Corbyn, I can't imagine them having much time for Labour whips. But various of us guessed before the vote that DUP might try for a show of strenght, and Corbyn/his whips should have too. It was well within the realms of possibility.

If there was a general election I don't have a clue who I'd vote for. Even with the sorry state of the country under this government. Which is shocking.

Mother

1. An amendment for a PV would have to be passed to become law - currently too few MPs would vote for this.

2. The UK Parliament cannot request the EU to extend A50 - it would have to come directly from the PM
   and there is no modern precedent for Parliament to order a PM to ask a foreign bloc to do something

3. The PV absolutely has to have No Deal as an option, because it has so much support, currently the #2 favourite

Leaving it out would be more shameless gerrymandering than Banks or CA did
It would be denying currently ⅓ of voters their choice - that abandons any semblance of democracy

4. A PV could easily choose No Deal - a 2nd vote for Leave would make it politically impossible to revoke later

can we leave off the Christian bashing please. It's fine to say that some people are really crap ambassadors for their faith, but let's leave out general derogatory comments. Some of us really do try to live out our faith as best we can.

I think I’ll post it again because it got swallowed: bit.ly/2PDHmAR

Matthew Pennycook, Shadow Minister for Brexit

The HoC can block legislation or even pass a No Confidence vote to bring down the goverment

What they can NOT do is to use the PM as a glove puppet to carry out HoC wishes on foreign treaties

That's very good Talkstones.

Talkstotrees! huh! that was a strange autocorrect!

If we left and then later re-joined, we would have to join the euro, wouldn't we? (If it still existed at that point, of course)

Mother I'm saying we must have plans which are actually possible^
I'd suggest playing for time in the hope that Remain really gets a boost in the polls and / or bad economic news in 2019
... causes May to ask for an emergency revoke

So maybe vote down the WA the first time, then pass it if need be in early 2019

I'd absolutely avoid a PV unless we are damn sure of the outcome - in which case it could be an emergency and / or pointless anyway

I'd hope Remain MPs have better suggestions, but currently they seem in lala land about what the HoC can do

British (English?) society is structured with that ability to look down on people who are above or under you.

We're essentially still a feudal state in outlook. The Lord in his Manor, and the Poor Man at his Gate. It's a complex stratigraphy as "foreigner" can slot into a variety of levels. "Rich foreigner" at the top, and "poor foreigner" just below dog shit.

The famed British "tolerance" was simply having an awful lot of slots in the hierarchy to be able to put people in, that's all.

"Doctor" - generally above most people.
"Foreign Doctor" - generally below most people.

I'm sure people of mixed heritage like myself are finding that sounding slightly familiar ?

Olennas Theoretically the recent joiners like Sweden also had to join - they have no plans to do so !

In practice, the economic criteria for the Euro - budget deficit etc - are now so strict it would be decades before we'd be eligible
and by that time I expect the EU will have formally reorganised into the much discussed inner and outer rings, where the latter are outside the Eurozone

The U.K. cannot change the wording of A50, but as we know, Kerr, who wrote the damn thing didn’t expect it to be used.

There is no hard provision for what happens if the whole thing takes longer than the arbitrary 2 years, and an extension is needed, other than the EC would have to agree with the member states.

Nor do yet know if it will be possible to revoke A50 unilaterally, or after negotiation with the EU.

Kerr has always held that it is reversible. He said ‘at any stage we can change our minds if we want to’. He also said:

‘The Brexiters create the impression that is because of the way article 50 is written that having sent in a letter on 29 March 2017 we must leave automatically on 29 March 2019 at the latest. That is not true. It is misleading to suggest that a decision that we are taking autonomously in this country about the timing of our departure, we are required to take by a provision of EU treaty law.’

Indeed following discussion with politicians and officials from Brussels and the EU, Kerr claims to have clear indication that if the U.K. needed more time for the population to vote on the deal, that the other 27 member states would agree to extend.

Now I am not saying this will happen, simply that this is his perspective.

OhYouBadBadKitten

Thank you for that. Was going to ask the same, but you did it far better.