Westministenders: The One Where We Finally Get A Leadership Challenge?

[RedToothBrush]

Tick tick tick.

What do we think?

Yes? No?

Another week of wtf-ing at British politics.

Mark Di Stefano @MarkDiStef
Retweeted Damian Collins
Pro Remain Tory says no to May's deal.

damiancollins.com/why-i-will-not-be-supporting-the-proposed-eu-withdrawal-agreement/
Why I Will Not be Supporting the Proposed EU Withdrawal Agreement
Damien Collins

Tatiana's model palace at Legoland in Holland (suddenly not remembering where LEGO HQ is) is lovely. Created by a senior army officer for his young daughter who I think was quite well into middle age when it was finished.
There is also the issue that the EU would like to recoup the money that it has been forced to shell out for Brexit. I think I am correct in that the UK will be underwriting at least some of this, but I would expect that post March 29 negotiations will get significantly tougher with tighter deadlines and fewer 'concessions'. The EU has been kicked hard and forced to consider if not actually enact, alternative options for trade and could reasonably use this as a vehicle to realign itself with other parts of the world. Abuse gets a lot of 'pixel time' on MN and many replies get the 'LTB', 'Ducks in a row' and move on reply, The EU are in this situation. The UK may have been a childhood sweetheart with a cute bum (or whatever aspect you may find attractive) but if it's over it's over. Just hope it doesn't get to the 'shredding the clothes in the wardrobe' situation.

{How can we have such a shower of incompetents in charge in both parties at a time .like this?}
It was entirely a UK decision to start any of this, the UK needs to own it.

Labour is planning to force amendments within weeks that would make it impossible for Britain to crash out of the EU with no deal.

Let me just address this.

This is not an option.

We AUTOMATICALLY crash out if there is no deal reached.

The EU also need to ratify any deal. This includes an extention to a50. We can not just decide on 28th March that actually, yes we will sign the deal, if the EU have not said yes to the final format of the WA.

It is NOT IN THE POWER OF THE LABOUR PARTY TO PREVENT AN AUTOMATIC CRASH OUT, UNLESS THEY SIGN UP TO THE DEAL ON THE TABLE. Which they have said they won't do.

The entire purpose of the Withdrawal Agreement is that is the mechanism by which we prevent an automatic crash out!

You are believing in unicorns if you believe this Labour suggestion is a possibility. You have been sucked in by Labour utter nonsense.

Remind me what do you think the WA is for? What is the WA?

At this point, no revoking a50 as an option to prevent an automatic crash out is not on the table - its not until the ECJ court case has concluded.

If the ECJ rules we dont have power of revokation then it is out of our hands and an automatic crash is still possible unless the EU agree to let us revoke.

Honestly Labour are as bad as the flipping ERG at the moment.

Thx trees, only ever been me. I’ve read this thread but I don’t post much.

I should clarify that by ‘EEA+‘ deal, I meant EEA+ CU - that is what doesn’t curently exist. San Marino has a CU+ FTA hybrid that replicates the single market.

Labour can only stop No Deal if they blink and support a withdrawal agreement in the national interest. Yes I said those words. Yes it's shit but no deal is absolutely fucking catastrophic.

I agree with holding out as long as possible, then signing the WA if otherwise it's No Deal.

Many of us can afford a No Deal without much problem, including having the option to move / stay abroad for a few months or more;
many others depend on meds, or already have no savings, no luxuries to cut back on

Playing for time is important, because what will determine how most MPs vote is public opinion:
very few would try to stop Brexit as long as straight Remain vs Leave polls still show Remain only narrowly ahead.

They would be worried about destroying their careers and their party, plus also causing a large minority of the public to be seething and rebellious for decades.

Still fuming about May's "jumping the queue" comment yesterday. Along with her "citizens of nowhere" insult, it just shows what a spiteful and xenophobic (and downright nasty) individual she is. And this time it can't be blamed on Nick Timothy, it's obvious that these are her own true thoughts.

All those "unskilled" EU citizens coming here, arrogantly exercising reciprocal treaty rights as though they're entitled to do it, helping sick people in our NHS, paying taxes and contributing to society; we'll be better off when we can keep them out.

I find it hard to express my utter contempt for her line of thinking.

The government just lost their appeal. The article 50 revocation question will go to the ECJ.

red I agree.
Too many Remain MPs are just as delusional as Brexiters in what they promise
They are giving false hope

The only reason I refer to an emergency revoke in maybe February / March is at least there is a clear constitutional path to that
PROVIDED May / the cabinet are sufficiently panicked by say business and capital flight happening then.

I put the chances at about 1/10, with the roadblock being that screeching U-turn we would need

I just can't see any genuine route for the HoC itself to stop Brexit, unless they bring down the govt and install a temporary cross-party alliance

• chances 1 / 1000 ?

It was a disgraceful appeal:
going to the UK Supreme Court after the highest Scottish court had refused them permission to do so.

Yet again, showing contempt for Scotland

Steve Bullock (whom I believe was an EU negotiator) was pondering on Twitter the possibility of an amendment which would mean that the WA had to be ratified by public vote. So, the WA is voted through by Parliament, this stops us crashing out of the EU, an extension to A50 is sought - and EU bod was quoted in the papers this morning saying this would be fairly straightforward up to the end of June after which the UK would have to hold delayed EU elections - and the public vote on whether they would prefer to leave under this deal or revoke A50.

Btw, I don't think anyone has posted this from Jolyon Maugham:

The Supreme Court has just rejected the Government's last ditch attempt to block the [A50] hearing before the Court of Justice next week.

Actually Susan did.

If the WA is passed by Parliament, what PV does Bullock want to specify as an amendment ?

WA vs Remain would not be acceptable to a large minority
Any PV would have to include No Deal, which is far too dangerous

So it might not stop us crashing out, only delay it a few months

Why would a PV have to include No Deal?

very few would try to stop Brexit as long as straight Remain vs Leave polls still show Remain only narrowly ahead.

I think this is the big problem and it's exacerbated by people believing that once we have left we can just forget about all this Brexit nonsense, not realising that this is just the the beginning.

No Deal is unacceptable to an even larger minority and is being used as a default position to garner support for a WA that pleases no one. However, under SB's suggested approach, the default would be WA which, while far from perfect, does stop complete meltdown.

There have been suggestions by a couple of commentators that the EU would not countenance extending A50 to allow any sort of PV if No Deal were to be an option on the ballot paper and an extension is in their gift, not ours. From an EU pov, it would draw out a situation that they want to resolve, and cause far too much volatility.

DUP question

I don't understand what the DUP are aiming for. I read today they are saying May must keep her side of their bargain and not agree for NI to have separate status to rest of UK, even as a backstop in case of hard Brexit.

But if UK has no deal or hard brexit, wouldn't NI be pragmatically better off having a special status at least temporarily? Wouldn't they be in a really really bad situation if they crashed out with rest of UK? I think lots of their electricity comes from ROI and lots of people travel across daily so they would be in a worse position than mainland UK.

I thought NI voted fairly strongly to Remain so isn't this the opposite of what their constituents would want?

Have DUP given a view of what they would want to happen with NI in a hard Brexit/ no deal situation? I'm confused because they seem to be arguing for something that could be very bad for their constituents and contrary to what their constituents voted for. Or are DUP just maintaining this position as a bargaining tool but actually are fervently hoping a deal will be reached?

But if UK has no deal or hard brexit, wouldn't NI be pragmatically better off having a special status at least temporarily?

NI already has "special status". Just try getting married there if you're gay. Or a termination for that matter. In a board game of life, Theresa May should have told the DUP that since NI is clearly different from rUK, it's perfectly logical to treat it separately.

I thought NI voted fairly strongly to Remain so isn't this the opposite of what their constituents would want?

How do you think Scottish folk feel ?

MerryMouse No Deal has the highest support after Remain

You can't exclude the #2 option just because you don't want it
That would make a PV totally undemocratic

It would be like excluding Labour from the next GE

I realise this is 'feelz' rather than legal fact but I expect the EU will be exceedingly reluctant to delay anything further. They can see that there is no 'superhero' with a brilliantly worked out plan/roadmap with credible deals stuffed into his/hers tights, so there is no point in extending for a new election in the UK. The UK is being governed by a rag tag assortment of f^ckwits and unless the PM were to grab the Henry Viii powers and run with them and to hell with the consequences there is no one outstanding to get anything sensible done.
The world is turning and everyone else wants to get on with it.