Westministenders: The One Where We Finally Get A Leadership Challenge?

[RedToothBrush]

Tick tick tick.

What do we think?

Yes? No?

Another week of wtf-ing at British politics.

Hear hear! ^

Cameron's stupid moaning and posturing about making demands for more concessions in early 2016 helped to blot out all the advantages of our sweet deal with the EU and that we already had it good. More to thank him for

I would add that not many talk about the lack of voice for EU nationals during in referendum. We're happy to use their services in the workforce and take their taxes from their pay but don't give them say in the most important decision of our generation. Disgraceful!

We could rejoin, might possibly lose some optouts, might not

I expect the EU to be keen to avoid the impression of humiliating a desoerate UK - Versaille and its consequences have been whispered several times on the continent

Still a hell of a lot better to Rejoin than to be a lone country trying to negotiate with the economic giants, while our economy is going down the toilet

In fact, the reasons for rejoin are much stronger than in 72:
the world then was not nearly so integrated and JIT hadn't taken off

It would take a decade to reproduce all the agencies and the supply chains would never recover properly
We'd lose a massive amount of business in the meantime
and the average standard of living would plummet

Sick Man of Europe on steroids

I agree Corbyn is a massive problem
in fact a roadblock.

Without him, there would be a much clearer way to avoid Brexit

The extreme ERG tail has been wagging the Tory dog
With Labour, the extremists have taken over the dog's brain

The very limited weapons the HoC has to change govt policy on Brexit are rendered impotent, when both the PM and the leader of the Opposition are determined to push Brexit at all cost

I agree Spudlet.
If the U.K. was allowed to rejoin, it would mean agreement of all the countries and the U.K. having so special circumstances. It wouldn’t be joining back with the same special conditions.

And I don’t think it’s about Versailles and making it awful for the uk either. But the uk has proven how hard work it can be and how far their ideals are from the EU ideals. That would be something to take into account for any organisation that is trying to do MORE than just commercial agreements (which the EU is)

The best possibility - still v slim - is that May at the last moment puts country before party and revokes.

I feel certain that May's experience is so narrow that she can't comprehend that what she wants for the Tory party isn't necessarily in the best interests of the country.

I am so angry with Labour and Corbyn. They could be preventing this and they aren't. What the hell is the point of an opposition party if they can't even be arsed to turn up.

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
Times

If she loses the first time, can we have two “meaningful votes”. Well yes think cabinet ministers

Ministers already planning second Commons Brexit vote

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/762c0cf6-ec47-11e8-8888-d940336e3709
Ministers already planning second Commons Brexit vote

So first vote. ERG and maybe others vote against.

Then more talk of another leadership challenge which may or may not happen

Everyone panics and it all goes crazy

Then another vote.

I wonder if we can have three votes.

We need to stop talking about rejoining and start getting this leaving stopped!

Mother I couldn’t agree more! Obviously if at the last minute it looks like there is no political will to stop Brexit then we should sign the WA, because no deal is so much worse, but until then there is all to play for.

Jessica elgot @jessicaelgot
My day starts with a joint ERG press conference, hosted by Rees-Mogg and Peter Lilley. The theme is "fact not friction" on customs under WTO rules....

The group is arguing it is better to leave with no deal and then negotiate a Canada-style agreement from that point onwards, in order to skirt the Withdrawal Agreement and the backstop. That would mean a hard border in NI, of course.

Twitter going mad at the inaccuracies and bullshit eminating from Lilley's gob

OhYouBadBadKitten Exactly my feelings.

Sorry a bit late but:
{Theresa May Did vote.}
I'm a PM, get me out of here!'.

Oh, and thank you for the Terry Pratchett quotes. He moved up my reading list.

Nothing about a no deal scenario is clear Bigchoc, I agree with missmoon there. There is no precedent constitutionally so we have literally no idea.

Nor is there a one size fits all no deal scenario - there are two principal types:

1. Belligerent no deal. In which U.K. gov gives two fingers to the EU - elective no deal, hard Brexit WTO trading rules etc.

1. Accidental no deal. U.K. government desperately tried to agree a deal but fails, leading to constitutional crisis, meaning we do not reach an agreement within the allotted timespan.

The first the EU would have little patience with, the second they may feasibly have sympathy for - for a time at least. Apart from anything else the EU seems concerned to play fair.

Personally, I think the penny has dropped among the even darkest recesses of government that an elective no deal scenario = national emergency and political suicide for whichever party enacted it. There is no plan for no deal because the government has no intention of carrying it out.

Labour is planning to force amendments within weeks that would make it impossible for Britain to crash out of the EU with no deal. What comes of that remains to be seen.

The real options are WA or Remain. All needs to be fought out now before it’s too late.

However I don’t disagree that this may not happen. MPs across parties are just as afraid of constitutional crisis as you, they may accept this deal however poor the outcome, for fear of something worse.

But if anything is wishful thinking it is your assumption that if we accept this deal now it can be changed to an EEA+ deal later. (This doesn’t actually exist in the EU - what does exist is a San Marino style CU+ which effectively reproduces the rules of the single market). We might, we might not, it would be safer to get it right now, rather accept something we then have to try to change.

The fact that Corbyn is pro Brexit is an issue for both our theories. But as I said before, a Labour government elected off the back of opposition to the WA now before the deal is signed, is a very different scenario from Labour inheriting a signed deal in 2021.

In a yougov poll in September, 90% of 1000 Labour members say they would vote to stay in if there were a referendum today. There’s more support for Remain in the Labour Party than in the Tories. 135 Tory MPs voted Leave, vs 10 Labour MPs. Corbyn and McD are in a small minority in their party.

Similarly to peregrina I was wondering how Carlos Ghosn's fate will affect Nissan in Sunderland.
They have already trashed Ghosn's legacy which includes his secret agreement with the May government. Not good. Uncertainty for a factory already on the edge.

Always happy to promote Sir Pterry!

I agree that if we leave, it would make sense to try and rejoin again at the right time, politically. I just don't think we can rely on it being a smooth ride. I don't think it would even be a Versailles-style revenge thing, just a bit of self-preservation on the part of the remaining MSs!

(The fact that each Member State effectively has a veto on new members is of course why all that Brexiteers scaremongering about Turkey joining was such bullshit - as an MS we could veto it. Had that self-same conversation with my PiLs, not that it helped. As we all know, boring old facts had no place in that debate...)

Great post Tatiana. (I assume you are a name changer..? Who did you used to be? Apologies if I should know ).

{We need to stop talking about rejoining and start getting this leaving stopped!}
Unfortunately although entirely a sensible idea there are a couple of serious problems.
The 'Leave' would not bee seen to be done so perceived as a 'loss of democracy', making any further negotiations very difficult.
Add on to that the fact that the UK (some parts more than others) have a very entrenched 'we rule the empire' mentality and are not capable of really embracing equality and pooling of resources.
The average person in the street sees life as just 'being there' without considering how the life as experienced in 'middle England' got to where it is now. With so many having the 'Empire' mentality with its watered down remnants being all around us we do not appreciate 'other ways' as are often ingrained in the European ways of life.
If you live in the Alsace part of France, you will probably speak French and German and use either depending which town you may go to for your shopping. Belgium and Holland, especially near the German borders will speak at least 4 probably more languages and be appreciative of the different regional customs. This creates a different mindset and at least an appreciation, if not 'love' of others.

If we have to have one of the current lot of the Labour party as leader i.would actually rather it was McDonnell. Not that I really want him either but when he's interviewed he at least sounds enthusiastic and as if he wants to get things done. I listened to a bit of JCs speech on the radio last night and he sounded like half his mind was wondering what to have for dinner and the other half was wishing he was at home listening to gardener's question time.

The Labour party needs to sort itself out but I can't see it happening soon. How can we have such a shower of incompetents in charge in both parties at a time .like this? It's like a perfect storm.

Did anyone catch the programme on radio 4 last night about when we joined the EEC? It was really interesting and showed really how little has changed in the last forty years.

Theresa May sings Arlene.

twitter.com/WritersFrock/status/1064600922528075777

twitter.com/JohnJCrace/status/1064815297813770247
Lots of anticipation for the ERG Press Conference

Delayed until Dec

Hugo Gye @HugoGye
Jacob Rees-Mogg has admitted the Tory leadership coup looks like being delayed to December - after the 'meaningful vote' on the PM's Brexit deal.
Speaking on his @ConHome 'Moggcast': "Some people don't want a leadership vote now, they would like it when the meaningful vote comes up and think that is the time to put in letters."
JRM: "I think the strength of feeling against the meaningful vote is much stronger than the number of letters that has gone in. If there are letters in, very few of those letters will be withdrawn - so the hurdle is much lower when the meaningful vote comes."
He tells @ConHome the apparent failure of the coup could be a blessing in disguise: "In a way it is better that there has been this delay, though I can't pretend that there has been some cunning plan, because we have allowed time for people to see the failures of the policy."

How can I make a defeat look like we aren't complete muppets? You can't Jacob