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Brexit

Westministenders: The One Where We Finally Get A Leadership Challenge?

987 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/11/2018 22:50

Tick tick tick.

What do we think?

Yes? No?

Another week of wtf-ing at British politics.

OP posts:
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bellinisurge · 19/11/2018 13:25

@prettybird - [waves to someone with similar academic background], it's uncanny isn't it? Corbyn wants the chaos. It's his only chance of electoral success.

SkinnyTrinny · 19/11/2018 13:31

The new Labour party members seem to be in three groups, the well meaning, the losers who want to take everyone down with them and a group of sadists who want to be modern day SS controlling and hurting the public (there seems to be quite a few who are into BDSM joining the momentum ranks).

BigChocFrenzy · 19/11/2018 13:33

red I wonder if Brady will keep to the 48 hr notification for the PM Eyes Only
In which case we might officially only hear EOW that there is to be a vote on her

Hasenstein · 19/11/2018 13:34

"He's an old school "changing society is worth breaking a few [million] eggs" politician. Didn't work out too well in the Soviet Union."

To update Stalin's bon mot, one job loss is a tragedy, a million job losses is a statistic.

Spudlet · 19/11/2018 13:35

As was so often the case, Terry Pratchett was right on the money when it comes to revolutions.

People on the side of The People always ended up disappointed, in any case. They found that The People tended not to be grateful or appreciative or forward-thinking or obedient. The People tended to be small-minded and conservative and not very clever and were even distrustful of cleverness. And so the children of the revolution were faced with the age-old problem: it wasn't that you had the wrong kind of government, which was obvious, but that you had the wrong kind of people.

What would he have made of all this, and where is Lord Vetinari when we need him?!

DGRossetti · 19/11/2018 13:36

.

Westministenders: The One Where We Finally Get A Leadership Challenge?
tava63 · 19/11/2018 13:36

@prettybird - honestly it's extremely worrying. The UK is at the mercy of extremists on the right and the left - unfortunately not enough people have woken up to this. The two main parties clearly have a minority grouping within them that is calling the shots. The push for a leadership contest is part of their strategy of sneaking through a No Deal Brexit. Likewise Corbyn thwarts the decision of his Party by pushing for a GE when it is clear that this has got very little hope of taking place - again in my suspicious mind so that we end up with a No Deal scenario simply because time has run out. The best option is No Brexit and the best mechanism for that is a People's Vote. I hope PV campaigners can get this over the line in time and that the Electoral Commission do include "No Brexit" on the ballot paper. Keep writing to you MPs everyone.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/11/2018 13:37

I've been saying all along that the far left - and the far right - want the chaos of No Deal,

in order to carry out policies that they would never be able to do in normal times

DGRossetti · 19/11/2018 13:38

As was so often the case, Terry Pratchett was right on the money when it comes to revolutions.

Terry Pratchett was right about a lot of things ...

The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.

Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles.

But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that’d still be keeping his feet dry in ten years’ time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.

This was the Captain Samuel Vimes ‘Boots’ theory of socioeconomic unfairness.

compare and contrast with cheaper energy for paying in advance etc etc ...

DGRossetti · 19/11/2018 13:39

The UK is at the mercy of extremists on the right and the left - unfortunately not enough people have woken up to this.

Because they aren't immediately affected, and can enjoy the idea that other people are. "First they came ...."

Spudlet · 19/11/2018 13:40

Yes, the Boots theory! He was an extremely astute observer of human nature.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/11/2018 13:41

There has been quite a bit of speculation that the WA may fail at first attempt, in mid-December,
but that this failure would cause the markets and business to really panic,

at which stage May will try to get it through again - so probably in Jan / Feb
Even rumours - paranoid ? - in the Sunday Times that she would deliberately leak and encourage a crash, "Kamikaze May:"

Westministenders: The One Where We Finally Get A Leadership Challenge?
DGRossetti · 19/11/2018 13:44

Maybe not have a meaningful vote then (which may have been the plan all along).

Sorry, Dom [Grieve], me old mate. You were stitched up like a kipper.

SkinnyTrinny · 19/11/2018 13:46

Corbyn doesn't really want to be in power. Corbyn is a little boy in a mans body looking to SM and JM to tell him what to do - evident in that he feels he has no need to read the government document on the agreement with the EU he will vote on.Hmm

Corbyn will mess things up as will Matt Zarb-Cousin and Owen Jones during a general election campaign despite JM and SM doing their best.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/11/2018 13:49

Cross Party Alliance:

TheGirl There is no need for a GE to have such an alliance, because once elected, MPs can do what they wish - break their manifesto promises, even change parties - until the next GE

So, if ever enough MPs decide they want a cross-party alliance, it can happen right away

They don't need a longterm alliance for the next GE, just long enough to pass the WA / call a PV / revoke A50 (if this can be agreed / is allowed unilaterally)

Problem is: they fear for their careers afterwards - deselection & expulsion would loom

If only 20-30 of one party join up with other parties, then those 20-30 are probably doomed
However, if they can collect say 100+ from each of Labour & Tory, then there'd probably be some safety in numbers

RedToothBrush · 19/11/2018 14:10

2pm Graham Brady Watch Update:

From Twitter
tumbleweed

If we are having that scheduled leadership challenge tomorrow, he better pull his finger out.

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BigChocFrenzy · 19/11/2018 14:27

Talks If we had more capable and courageous MPs, they would be more likely to be able to develop - and carry out - something cleverer than the WA
Such as a cross-party alliance that would have a majority to pass a bill for a PV etc

We don't, but most MPs - hopefully - now realise that No Deal is the worst option of all and must be avoided
Unfortunately, the only feasible way atm of avoiding this is to vote for the dog's dinner of a WA that May has cooked up
She also has no ability to create anything better

I expect that if they refuse to eat it the first time, then May will say there is nothing else available and produce it again in 2019, when they are desperate

BigChocFrenzy · 19/11/2018 14:29

I should add that those imaginary clever & capable MPs would have to first convince the public that Brexit is a bad idea, before organising a PV

RedToothBrush · 19/11/2018 14:29

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
Confidence Vote Watch ERG source tells me that if vote doesn't happen today a] It's a victory for the Tory party machine whipping operation over weekend b] It's delayed not forgotten.. apparently some MPs thinking it better for put letters in after she loses the WA vote in HoC

Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
Why let Rees-Mogg do that triumphalist press conference last Thursday? Why let Simon Clarke go on radio this morning saying it has to be today?

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BigChocFrenzy · 19/11/2018 14:42

BBC Politicss@BBCPolitics*

#Brexit implementation period should be over "before the next general election", says Theresa May

  • earlier than 2022 date suggested by EU negotiator Michel Barnier

She means the transition should have ended before the next GE,
which must be held by 2022 at the latest

That depends on
a) when the next GE is - could be within months !
b) what extension date the UK and EU agree - if the trade negotiations go like the WA ones, expect 2099 !

BigChocFrenzy · 19/11/2018 14:44

Why does JRM remind me of the song about The Grand Old Duke of York ? 🤔

BigChocFrenzy · 19/11/2018 14:48

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Excl: Brexiteers still at least 6 MPs short of triggering confidence vote in PM - 48 needed, but only 42 assurances given to ERG (25 publicly, 17 in private).
And that’s only if all telling the truth

Hasenstein · 19/11/2018 14:49

Aaron Banks and his dodgy dealings (and equally dodgy sidekick).

www.facebook.com/insideoutwest/videos/2007952172617955/

And Carole Cadwalladr gets it in the neck for telling the truth!

BigChocFrenzy · 19/11/2018 14:51

Steven Swinfordd@Steven*_Swinford

NEW
Government preparing to accept amendment tabled by 11 Tory Remainers calling for comparison of economic impact PM's Brexit deal with staying in the EU.

Terms of amendment broad enough to defer publication until after meaningful vote, ie when bill gains royal assent

Hasenstein · 19/11/2018 14:54

Terms of amendment broad enough to defer publication until after meaningful vote, ie when bill gains royal assent

So what would be the point of that? I can just imagine Jim Bowen unveiling a sailing boat and saying "Let's have a look at what you would have won".

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