Westminstenders: Crisis. What Crisis

[RedToothBrush]

October is slowly rolling into November.

Your eyes, rightly, will be distracted by events the other side of the pond.

It won't be good and it won't be pretty and it will have an impact on what happens here in relation to Brexit in one way or another.

May seems to have headed off trouble makers for now. But that means nothing if she can't get a deal through parliament.

And if you think we are in anyway prepared for No Deal I'd like whatever drugs you are taking. That way lies only disorder and to put it bluntly, deaths.

We MUST find a deal, any deal to prevent that. Desperation is the final ingredients in this mess. Who will blink as they realise what's at stake?

The problem is though, is too few MPs have grasped what's at state, such is the quality of our elected representatives. And that's the truly terrifying bit.

If they can't work out the risk of no deal, they certainly not equipped to handle the fall out of no deal.

If you want to shit yourself anymore, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that the minister responsible for hauling all your food and medical supplies in the event if no deal, is Mr Christopher Grayling.

Start praying.

I's recommend digging out all documents you have, pretty and anyone else naturalised, or even born British but with a foreign surname, e.g. via marriage

So including passports ann any old ones you have, all the old tac returns and utility bills with you address on

Get 2 certified copies of your birth certificate if born British, but foreign name or accent

I still have a very foreign surname (never changed my name when I got married because I liked it too much and why should I? ) - but I am definitely a UK citizen . I have (I think) all my passports from my second one (which I got in 1979 as my first one was only a 5 year passport as I was under 16), then 84 and every c10 years since then (and one "extra" one as I lost one )

My dad probably has a copy of my naturalisation certificate he is very organised and good at paperwork

Looking at that "Impact versus Likelihood" chart, quite apart from the fact that the self inflicted Brexit is not included, methinks that their assessment of the likelihood of certain events - like severe weather and attacks in crowded places and electronic attacks - need to be reassessed

bigchoc I'm a forrin sounding name person... will double check I have everything.

Life gets weird sometimes...

Few tips for y'all

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/dup-budget-2018-vote-philip-hammond-brexit-northern-ireland-border-sammy-wilson-statement-a8608406.html

The Democratic Unionist Partyy^ has withdrawn its threat to vote down the Budgett^, saying it will give Theresa Mayy^ “another chance” to protect Northern Irelandd^ in her Brexitt^ deal.

However, it warned there would be “other opportunities” to defeat the prime minister – and potentially topple her from power – if its red lines over the Irish border are crossed.

The RoI budget included money to mitigate possible effects of Brexit

Irish commentators said €2bn in toto, proportionately rather more than the €5bn for the much much larger UK population and economy

https://www.pwc.ie/budget-2019-ireland/brexit.html

EU Citizens Being Forced To Prove Their Right To Work After Brexit Shows The Endgame For Us Has Come

E27 expat in UK, venting - scared, disgusted, angry, despairing

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/eu-nationals-brexit-no-deal-immigration-settled-statusukk_5bd9736ce4b019a7ab587dae

I thought that I had now seen it all.
That we had reached rock bottom in terms of how low the UK government would be prepared to sink - I was wrong

Bear in mind that the moment a persons immigration status becomes "unsettled", bank accounts will be frozen, and they may not be able to travel on their passport, if they have to brave use UK immigration channels.

So Facebook set up a system to ensure the transparency of political adverts.

Here's Carole Cadwalladr to explain just how well its gone:

twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1057563946939494400

Facebook look like a bunch of fucking amatuers way out of their depth.

Interesting thread from the 3 Million regarding citizens' rights after Brexit. No mention of the transition period which supports the theory that Caroline Nokes' remarks apply only to a No Deal scenario.

mobile.twitter.com/The3Million/status/1057362690119794688?fbclid=IwAR054ZT7WsZnvkElv_ESZ5vbaP1SgOSS7VVEHZAsEqchSSFgoXmPqmZSr_M

PS on the subject of Brits who don't look/sound British - I'm white English, not foreign looking, but have a very foreign name by (former) marriage. No problems yet, but will keep an eye on the situation.

Good reminder, DG - in fact many people are unaware of this,
including people who think their status is secure

The banks can freeze your money if they even SUSPECT govt regs require this

• and banks will always place the risk and the burden of proof on customers

"safe as a bank" = "safe as a bank robber"

This is true every now and again my bank threatens to do this because I have accounts in the UK and the US, even though they are both with the same bank and they have seen both my UK passports and US visa. I have to produce more evidence of the above, banks are getting twitchier.

Agustarella It would be very unwise to think that Noakes remarks only apply to no deal
I suspect they at least apply to the ERG / govt favoured Canada +++

Noakes says E27 expats must prove their rights to work / residence, but she doesn't know how - would this really change in a transition to Canada++

A minimum WA deal that contains the NI backstop is such a priority that rights during a 21 month transition may be quite minimal

• the EU may consider there is no point in giving false reassurances to their citizens who may be kicked out at the end of a Canada transition period

An example where bank froze my account (British citizen with all British names):

Several years ago, during high interest rates, I had longterm bonds at a UK bank

Then a new UK law meant all customers had to prove ID and address to a much higher standard than when they started
and my bank gold-plated these rules, to 100% protect their arses

The bank gave a 3 month grace period in which current acount holders could close their accountany time

So, I instructed the bank to close my bonds, sacrificing one quarter-year interest and transfer all money to my current account - as the original terms of the bond allowed.

They refused, saying bonds could not be ended until ID had been proved

So, I had to take time off, get passport photos, travel by train to visit a German Notar and pay them to certify the required documents
because they had altered the original terms under which they had taken my money and frozen my account

PS on the subject of Brits who don't look/sound British - I'm white English, not foreign looking, but have a very foreign name by (former) marriage. No problems yet, but will keep an eye on the situation.

Well I'm whiter than white (no hint of Mediterranean heritage) as is DW and DS. I'm also sick of being told that I'm imagining things.

@DG I'm sure you're not imagining things, I was just reporting my situation. Obviously the nature of one's contact with officialdom varies from person to person. It's when lots of people compare their situations that things get interesting because trends can be seen, so I just wanted to contribute my experience, it wasn't a way of saying "Well I've had no problems so you must be paranoid". The only time I've ever been hauled into the local council offices and interrogated about my links to Russia was well before the current Hostile Environment policy, it was during the Blair/Brown era in fact, and no problems of that nature since.

@BigChoc I've re-downloaded the draft WA to see what it says about citizens' rights in transition, though I'm obviously aware that a) it might be superseded by a future, less generous version and b) there might be no deal and c) there could be a deal protecting citizens' rights and the likes of Ms Nokes could renege on it, leading to the breakdown of relations even after a WA has been signed. Interesting times.

Why the UK’s Brexit negotiation tactics drew a blank

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/31/why-the-uks-brexit-negotiation-tactics-drew-a-blank

Whether down to irritation or indifference, efforts to sidestep Brussels’ ‘technocrats’ failed

From that Guardian article ...

...
The argument has few takers in Brussels. “If a choice has to be made between colder UK-EU relations and weakening of the single market, I think [leaders] will choose the former,” Lamberts says. “Don’t forget Brexit is the creation of the United Kingdom.”
...

Not quite sure if that's a little too-clever writing, or just an accident, but there's surely a fucktonne of irony in the fact that Brexit is likely to be the destruction of the "United" Kingdom ?

Incidentally, has anyone else noticed that while there are no Brexit stories on the BBC at the moment, there's quite a lot written about big penises.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45735061

Interesting article there by Jennifer Rankin, and welcome news that the negotiation teams were in touch yesterday. Let's hope that Mr Raab's next visit to Brussels will be to sign the WA, not kill it (again).

I think Mr Lamberts' meaning might have been clearer if he'd said that Brexit was the creature [like Frankenstein's monster :)] of the UK, rather than the creation of the UK.

"the creation of the UK" just means the UK created Brexit, not the EU
i.e. our problem, our fault

Note from Lambert: Fast-track EU Rejoin

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/31/eu-prepares-for-a-no-deal-brexit-amid-lack-of-progress-on-talks

Philippe Lamberts, a Belgian MEP, who sits on the European parliament’s Brexit steering group .....
“Since the British government started backtracking on its commitments in the joint report [of December 2017] I have become less optimistic about a deal being clinched,”
....
Lamberts argues that British remainers should accept leaving the EU and campaign for re-entry during the 21-month transition period.
< say after a disastrous Brexit crash >

He voiced confidence the EU would fast-track the UK’s re-admission.

“This is a special case, where you cannot as EU27 demand full re-application...

If during the transition a popular majority, or a political majority in the House of Commons or House of Lords come to the conclusion that the UK should exit the transition by stepping back into the EU I really do not see how, politically, the EU27 could say ‘no thanks’.”

^"the creation of the UK" just means the UK created Brexit, not the EU
i.e. our problem, our fault^

Is that what mansplaining feels like ?

I know that. But I found it an interesting phrase, given that Brexit stands every chance of breaking up the Union, and was curious whether it was intentional, or incidental.

Let's hope that Mr Raab's next visit to Brussels will be to sign the WA, not kill it (again).

Since I'm on a lexical sojourn, that immediately echoes:

I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him