Westminstenders: Crisis. What Crisis

[RedToothBrush]

October is slowly rolling into November.

Your eyes, rightly, will be distracted by events the other side of the pond.

It won't be good and it won't be pretty and it will have an impact on what happens here in relation to Brexit in one way or another.

May seems to have headed off trouble makers for now. But that means nothing if she can't get a deal through parliament.

And if you think we are in anyway prepared for No Deal I'd like whatever drugs you are taking. That way lies only disorder and to put it bluntly, deaths.

We MUST find a deal, any deal to prevent that. Desperation is the final ingredients in this mess. Who will blink as they realise what's at stake?

The problem is though, is too few MPs have grasped what's at state, such is the quality of our elected representatives. And that's the truly terrifying bit.

If they can't work out the risk of no deal, they certainly not equipped to handle the fall out of no deal.

If you want to shit yourself anymore, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that the minister responsible for hauling all your food and medical supplies in the event if no deal, is Mr Christopher Grayling.

Start praying.

Asking to be a member of your 5 a side while they look around for something they think is better, having had a strop with the Premier League. So uh oh, we'll try the US leagues - they will fall over themselves. Er no, no joy their either.

Norway at least seems receptive to us becoming a permanent member

What they obviously don't want is the upheaval of negotiations and all the associated resources if the UK only plans to spend a few years say in EFTA

Any UK accession into EFTA would require about 2 years negotiations if the govt knew exactly what it wanted

• even with EFTA, we'd probably have Tory divisions as to desired arrangements and clauses. So it could take 5 years

A lot of effort if the Brexiters master plan is only to stay there until Canada++ has been negotiated

However, it's academic unless the NI backstop in agreed in the WA

The DUP might just agree if the transition is on current terms and the medium term plan is EEA / EFTA, so that the backstop wouldn't be applicable for several years.
However, they are probably not that sensible

DG I think the debt ratings from Fitch & co affect the interest rates for any new loans, or extension of existing ones, that the UK govt might need - in a hurry - after Brexit

Agustarella The transition period is for trade, flights etc and probably the various agencies like EURATOM, not FOM.

There may well not be a transition period for new expats.

I've been advising pp on these threads wanting permanent residence abroad to arrive there before Brexit Day

The gift that keeps on giving...

That’s not how I read that article augustarella.
I understood that all the marlake was if there was a No Deal.

The very big issue I have with this article is that it present things as if EU citizens hadn’t bothered to registered yet as only 650 have done so far. But it doesn’t mention that no RU citizen can register yet because the system isn’t open for them. Only two trials have been done (hence the 650).
It mentions the issue with the app been available only on android as if it was news when it has been known for yonks. And is certainly not Apple’s fault or responsibility.

And says that EU citizens will just have to show the proof of their settled status - HOW???? There is no paperwork available!! Or that companies will have to sort out if they are indeed ok to stay/are settled, basically telling companies theymwill ahve to replace the HO.
How this acceptable or how is it going to work, I have no idea...

But somehow it is ok to say that there will restrictions and checks on EU citizens wo thengivernemnet having done their actual homework and given EU citizens the ability to prove they fulfill the criteria.
It’s bonkers

The draft WA said that FOM would continue until the end of any transition,
but Noakes appears to be saying that is no longer the case.

Maybe she's just confused, but I would not bet on FOM lasting past Brexit Day - so move before then if you plan to work in the EU.

@BigChoc I'm working on it, but I thought FOM would continue during transition, as indicated in the draft WA (or did I read that wrong?) Of course with a WA increasingly unlikely it may not matter, but it's looking like we're screwed either way.

Off to pack some more boxes now.

The article says:

"Nokes said that determining people’s status would be tricky during the planned two-year transition period, whether or not there a deal was agreed."

It may be just that the UK is to disorganised to enable FOM from the EU, but that the EU will still allow UK immigration,
since its gross incompetence on the UK Home Office side, rather than planned ending of FOM.

It depends on what the EU are willing to sign up to, maybe whether they can get adequate terms for their own citizens to circumvent this HO idiocy

The EU may naturally be unwilling to allow FOM to continue during transition, if its own citizens can't work in the UK,
even if this is because of lack of HO planning, not intentional

In an e-mail that was sent to all the staff at my university they explicitly said that there was no hurry, an you didn’t need to have registered before Brexit day. I’ll see if I can find it.

EU Settlement Scheme pilot

Following the EU Referendum in June 2016, the government is introducing the EU Settlement Scheme which allows resident EU citizens and their family members to obtain the UK immigration status which they will require in order to remain here permanently. It is anticipated that the scheme will be fully launched no later than March 2019. In the meantime, the scheme is being rolled out in a series of pilot phases.

From 15 November 2018, the next pilot will open, which will allow all EU staff working at a UK university to access the scheme and make an application for ‘Settled’ or ‘Pre-Settled’ status in advance of the public rollout. The pilot will be open until 21 December 2018. There are some limitations as to who can access this pilot. Full details can be found here: www.gov.uk/guidance/eu-settlement-scheme-pilot-applicant-eligibility.

Note: There is no obligation or requirement to access the pilot scheme once it goes live on 15 November 2018, and all EU/EEA nationals in the UK will have more than 2 years to gain either ‘Settled’ or ‘Pre-Settled’ status after March 2019. There is no requirement to gain these statuses before the UK formally exits the EU on 29 March 2019.

I gather the problem is distinguishing between current E27 expats - who have 2 years -
and those arriving after Brexit Day - who may not be eligible to work if thre is no deal

If the govt gets really nasty after no deal, they could even repeal the recent law passed which allowy E27 citizens to settle

Yes, I think they need at least 6 months before applying for pre-settled status. It’s unclear what will happen in the case of no-deal. A disaster for most universities and the NHS I would have thought.

Even if there is no deal, FOM is being negotiated with Norway

I suppose because they are rich enough and white enough for Theresa

quite shameless how some EEA ciizens are good enough

• she'd probably love FOM with e.g. Germany, Switzerland too -

and some aren't - e.g. Eastern Europeans = poor and slavs (not accurate but maybe explains her hostility)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6333769/Norwegian-PM-dismisses-calls-Britain-join-EEA.html

No, sorry, having read it again, it’s not clear to me what happens if they arrive after Brexit day, but I don’t think they need to show any amount of residency to qualify for pre-settled status during the transition.

Haven't some former Turkish citizens gor German citizenship? There has been a long standing setup between Turkey and Germany but not sure if this is included. Of course France has ties with Algeria and other countries who typically have darker skin.

ssshhh Theresa may not know that !

The shock of crashing out of Europe would bring the UK back to the table quickly – so member states are willing to stand firm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/30/no-deal-brexit-not-end-negotiations-eu

In reality, as cabinet ministers are realising, no deal would quickly bring the UK to a halt,
and destroy the government which presided over it.

Blaming EU intransigence would not hold as a line for very long, with motorways gridlocked and essential supplies uncertain.

Very senior customs officials compare this scenario privately to a first world war battlefield.

“It will be triage,” says one; customs officers on the ground making individual decisions to wave through suffering live animals, or medicines, holding back almost everything else.

The National Audit Office shows how far away the UK is from being able to cope with the realities of a third-country relationship with the EU at 11pm on 29 March.

The EU will not choose this route just to make a point.
It would be painful for many member states, and particular regions – such as Calais and the surrounding Hauts-de-France – would suffer.
A prolonged no deal would be disastrous for Ireland, trapped by geography.
It could fracture EU unity over Brexit.

But the important fact is that key EU leaders think they can take the risk,
confident it would only last a matter of days before the UK had to seek a deal.
< always been my view too, about no deal: it wouldn't be for long at all >

It is a huge risk.
The British government would either come to terms or quickly fall.
Even if the UK agreed a deal, we would be facing an unprecedented political crisis.

The beached whale:

Since there is already some early form of 'civil unrest', the actuality of a 'no deal' would likely bring it on 'big time' within a few days.
The Gov could help matters by putting a form of 'gagging order' on particularly the tabloid press as the continual jibes and shit they are continuing to 'print' is turning the rest of Europe off any idea of being helpful.

Do the 'Far right' factions in parts of Europe see the UK far right as 'kin' or would they scrap between themselves? I have no idea but feel the 'European' far right have a different 'manifesto' compared to the UK.

And says that EU citizens will just have to show the proof of their settled status - HOW???? There is no paperwork available!!
Have i missed something or is a PR card not a proof?

Sorry, missed the point- there's no proof for pre-settled legal EU workers (ie less than 5 years).