Westminstenders: Crisis. What Crisis

[RedToothBrush]

October is slowly rolling into November.

Your eyes, rightly, will be distracted by events the other side of the pond.

It won't be good and it won't be pretty and it will have an impact on what happens here in relation to Brexit in one way or another.

May seems to have headed off trouble makers for now. But that means nothing if she can't get a deal through parliament.

And if you think we are in anyway prepared for No Deal I'd like whatever drugs you are taking. That way lies only disorder and to put it bluntly, deaths.

We MUST find a deal, any deal to prevent that. Desperation is the final ingredients in this mess. Who will blink as they realise what's at stake?

The problem is though, is too few MPs have grasped what's at state, such is the quality of our elected representatives. And that's the truly terrifying bit.

If they can't work out the risk of no deal, they certainly not equipped to handle the fall out of no deal.

If you want to shit yourself anymore, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that the minister responsible for hauling all your food and medical supplies in the event if no deal, is Mr Christopher Grayling.

Start praying.

I hope Red is ok.

I'm here.

The budget is the most soul destroyingly dull day.

No one ever understands it. Its all smoke and mirrors.

You don't actually learn anything.

Plus Brexit 50p make me want to hurl things.

Most of the rest of the world would prefer that the disgusting stag and hen 'do's were contained within the UK.

When FoM vanishes, Europe might actually like the difference ...

I found Dehouses articles both very interesting. I don't entirely go along with his suggestion that the EU could have thought more strategically, or at least not faced with the way the UK was negotiating. May immediately took a belligerent stance and then in an appeasement of her right wing drew some red lines which made negotiating virtually impossible - whatever the EU suggested the answer was no, the UK wants to have its cake and eat it. He talks about co-operation on defence, but the UK had threatened to withdraw co-operation here and then use EU citizens as bargaining chips to get what they wanted. Even when the UK does come to a half agreement, like the Irish backstop last December, Davis immediately shot it down on his return to the UK. The proposal was more tightly drawn, signed, and then 8 months later, Davis and Johnson tell us they hadn't read it properly and didn't agree. Negotiating under those sorts of conditions is impossible.

If May had come with a willingness to find areas in common and a constructive attitude, and told her right wing to put up or shut up, when she had the authority to do so, I think we would have been much further forward now.

Any willingness to compromise on the part of the EU has immediately been seized on as a "victory" from acting tough by the Brexiters.
It just encourages them in their fantasy that they'll have their cherried cake if they just hold out long wnough

red Preview of Brexit coin:

Yay! An extra £10 a month for us and an extra £10 per week for top rate tax payers. Still, we're all in this together...

I'm here.

Phew!

This been posted?

Rumoured 100+ MPs across party have lurched a motion for a ref...finally. The key phrase is informed consent gov don't currently have it.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-second-referendum-eu-killer-amendment-sarah-wollaston-a8605686.html?amp&fbclid=IwAR2kUUofQeS33RDz-hkk_tUiOM7YUWsxGYquotBUkdLfgR94BKpOrqlRK3E&__twitter_impression=true

It's being spearheaded by a conservative backbencher...Sarah Wollaston between her and Greening am I gonna end up voting Tory? 😫

I saw that Hazard.
I thought it was interesting that the timing was considered so important - table it now rather than wait for May’s deal to be rejected in the HoC (as some preferred.)

Also that, although they reckon to have 100 cross-party MPs in support, it all depends on how Labour (are whipped to) vote.

The problem for those MPs is if no deal at all is agreed - because no deal happens automatically, without any vote

The HoC cannot stop that, other than by Passing a No Confidence motion to bring down the hovernment

I kinda thought it was important for MPs to start flexing, this motion won't save us because it's likely to be no deal but MPs will have the muscle memory for working cross party which will be beneficial for a no confidence vote.

MPs need to know we like them when they do things that support informed consent.

Alternative to crashing out with no deal, it seems possible that revoking A50 could be legal. Jo Maugham’s case being considered at ECJ in November.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/21/triggering-article-50-reversed-european-court-justice-brexit-bad-dream

That 50p piece ... was it such a good idea ? (Personally they missed a trick here, they should have called it a Sovereign. (I wonder if we could trick a few Brexiteers into believing Remainers deliberately spiked the idea. Give them something to froth about for a bit ?)

Anyway, back to the 50p piece ....

The budget nicely summed up...

I shall donate my extra £10 per week to our foodbank.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/consultants-paid-1-6m-in-a-month-for-brexit-planning-7x2d9wq2w

International Rating Agencies: Fitch says it no longer assumes Britain will get a smooth Brexit

The penny is beginning to drop: the UK govt is just as lost & chaotic as it appears

When the Tories came to power in 2010, they claimed austerity was necessary to protect the UK's top notch AAA rating

That was lost in 2013, when Fitch downgraded the UK to AA, with a negative outlook
Further downgrades likely after Brexit, almost certainly if there is no deal

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-fitch/fitch-says-it-no-longer-assumes-britain-will-get-a-smooth-brexit-idUSKCN1N02SJ

LONDON (Reuters) - Ratings agency Fitch said on Friday it no longer assumed that Britain would leave the European Union in a smooth transition
and said an acrimonious and disruptive “no deal” Brexit could lead to a further downgrade of its sovereign credit rating.

“In Fitch’s view, an intensification of political divisions within the UK ... has increased the likelihood of an acrimonious and disruptive ‘no deal’ Brexit.

“Such an outcome would substantially disrupt customs, trade and economic activity,
and has led Fitch to abandon its base case on which the ratings were previously predicated.”

I would find it easier to give a shit what the ratings agencies said if they hadn't been caught so spectacularly wrong about the sub prime shitfest 10 years ago.

For my money you may as well use astrology. So here's a question for fans of horary ... what starsign is Brexit ?

From Twitter:

@nick_gutteridge
"Norwegian PM Erna Solberg says the Nick Boles plan for Britain to temporarily join EFTA would be ‘a little bit difficult’ for the other members to accept. That’s a diplomatic no thank you, then. But Oslo remains open to permanent British membership."

@NickBoles
"Nick Boles MP Retweeted Nick Gutteridge
This is obviously disappointing. But what matters is being in EFTA pillar of EEA, not full membership of EFTA. And if Parliament rejects the PM’s deal the question for everyone will be: which do they prefer Norway for Now or no deal?"

Catherine McKinnell
‏
Verified account

@CatMcKinnell
"Catherine McKinnell Retweeted Nick Boles MP
‘Norway for Now’ might be a catchy alliterative soundbite but doesn’t solve any of the fundamental problems with #Brexit (Irish Backstop, rules alignment, Divorce Bill, future relationship.....). If Parliament can’t agree, we need a #PeoplesVote"

And in pictures for the Brexiteers

Why on earth should the EEA/EFTA countries pander to us? We have messed around with the EU and still 28 months on can't say what we want. However, now that it looks as though we won't get any joy there, it's Oh well, we'll join EEA/EFTA. Jog on, I think is the correct response.

Why on earth should the EEA/EFTA countries pander to us? We have messed around with the EU and still 28 months on can't say what we want.

Write large, I think this may be a real problem. After all, why let the UK into any form of agreement when it clearly wasn't happy with probably the best deal it could have ever wished for ?

It's a little like someone asking to be a member of your local 5 a side team after deciding the Premier League wasn't to their liking.

What the hell?! Caroline Nokes the Immigration Minister seems to think that migrants arriving during any transition period won't have the right to work or stay in the UK:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/30/employers-required-brexit-check-eu-nationals-right-to-work-uk

If this is true, it will presumably be applied to Brits in Europe too. So not much point having a WA/ transition period if there's going to be a cliff edge on 29th March anyway.