Westminstenders: Crisis. What Crisis

[RedToothBrush]

October is slowly rolling into November.

Your eyes, rightly, will be distracted by events the other side of the pond.

It won't be good and it won't be pretty and it will have an impact on what happens here in relation to Brexit in one way or another.

May seems to have headed off trouble makers for now. But that means nothing if she can't get a deal through parliament.

And if you think we are in anyway prepared for No Deal I'd like whatever drugs you are taking. That way lies only disorder and to put it bluntly, deaths.

We MUST find a deal, any deal to prevent that. Desperation is the final ingredients in this mess. Who will blink as they realise what's at stake?

The problem is though, is too few MPs have grasped what's at state, such is the quality of our elected representatives. And that's the truly terrifying bit.

If they can't work out the risk of no deal, they certainly not equipped to handle the fall out of no deal.

If you want to shit yourself anymore, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that the minister responsible for hauling all your food and medical supplies in the event if no deal, is Mr Christopher Grayling.

Start praying.

All the UK can do after Brexit is just bend over and take it from every country not as desperate as the UK

"taking back control" from the UK and giving it to friends & enemies alike

How would Scotland react and accommodate to say a million or more 'refugees' from (arguments sake) Northern England (Sunderland when Nissan closes?) or elsewhere? If they are semi skilled, from industries that does not exist now, mostly living on benefits.
I would have been interested in 'emigrating' to Scotland but it would have put me further away from my work and I am not keen on midges!
I am not 'knocking' the generosity of spirit but acknowledge that an uncontrolled influx does cause resentment if it detracts from the living standards of the existing residents. So if say 30,000 'appeared' in a certain area, would the Scottish government AUTOMATICALLY increase health provision, schools and other social structure to maintain the status quo with the existing population?
It is a massive failing in England that when new housing developments get approved, which show maybe a new school, surgery, shops etc, the expensive houses get built, some more affordable ones get built but after a year or two 'whoops' the developer can't afford to build the school and shops that was part of the granting of the application. It seems that because the housing developers are donors to the Tories (typically) the enforcement notices seem to get 'lost in the post'.

pretty RNorth keeps insisting that in EEA / EFTA, the UK could use Article 112 to unilaterally stop FOM

However, I'd expect that in any negotiation to join, the other EFTA members would consider whether they want to restrict this use to certain specified conditions

iirc, the EU has to approve any new EEA member, since the EU and EFTA are the current 2 pillars of EEA.
So they might block the UK too, unless A112 was restricted in some way.

Of course, both the EU and EFTA might decide they actually don't mind if the UK stops FOM,
since EFTA is a much looser association, a very different entity to the EU,
in return for having so much less power, such as voting rights wrt those EU regulations that the EFTA countries have to follow

Also, the E. European econmies have developed so quickly
and Germany in particular would welcome more of the young, fit, educated immigrants that come to the UK

it would come down to whether using A112 is regarded as damaging the 4 pillars of the SM, in which case I expect it would be restricted for the UK

The piece on being the right kind of immigrant was uncomfortably close to the truth

I love the mash report jasjas and yes you are right the “right immigrant” piece was extremely close to the truth. Rachael Paris in particular is fantastic.

All those unicorns seem to be fading to grey.

The SM to which the EFTA countries belong is not quiote the same animal as the EU SM - which they call the "internal market", btw

Important difference WTO negotiations vs rolling over trade deals

Even without agreement, the UK can continue in practice with trading on WTO terms

What it can't do - if other countries object - is continue with the trade deals that the EU has with those countries
So, it could mean reverting to WTO terms in many, or even all, cases

No country in the world trades purely on WTO terms, without any trade deals with any other country
With good reason

TisILeClerk - Scotland has already explicitly said that it needs more immigrants - many of exactly the sort of low/semi skilled ones you mention, to pick all the soft fruit/vegetables and to care for our aging population. (I recognise that some of the unemployed from Sunderland might not be willing to do that )

And we are also able to build schools if required - unlike England, we don't have an Academy default system (although we call many of our schools Academies and Grammars, despite having been fully comprehensive for over 40 years ) so that local authorities can build new schools as and when necessary.

And I know of cases where planning permission has been awarded on condition that the extra amenities/the affordable homes required were built first - at the developer's expense - to ensure that the "oops, we ran out of money" scenario can't happen

Given that in most cases (contrary to DM/Express tropes), people who are prepared to uproot and start a new life in another country are willing to (and do) work hard and make a positive contribution to their new country, I don't see it as a major risk.

BCF

"I have mostly given up coffee and drink a German "grain coffee",
ingredients: rye, chicory, barley, acorns, figs
it tastes nice, imo"

We agree on most things, but we'll have to differ here. I've tried various coffee substitute concoctions (SIL is very keen on them) and they all taste like low-grade Ovaltine. I do love that the Germans call them "Muckefuck" though .

Thank you Pretty.
I have relatives in Scotland and have worked briefly in Glasgow and Edinburgh, holidaying further North.
I wasn't trying to be negative, just asking the question as there is nowhere on the planet that is true utopia.
You didn't deny the midges though!

Anyone else having probs accessing the RNorth blog today?

@Mightybanhammer EU ref site working fine here

Tried everything. Reloading old pages, links, google - nothing works. It just won't load.

I absolutely don't deny the midges

And it's dark for a long time in winter - but compensated for by lovely long days in the summer

And on the West Coast it rains a lot And the East Coast gets bloody cold winds in winter

We have our problems - no country is perfect.

Europe has been forced to spend billions preparing for the UK exiting and while the preparations may not be complete it will annoy the hell out of them all if the UK just says 'OK, just bluffing'.

So I would expect them to try to utilise the provisions that they have made. Like the super large ferries due to go from the UK to Rotterdam, but now planned for Dublin to Rotterdam - why change that plan? The UK has shown itself to be unreliable. It will take a lot to rebuild any trust.

And don’t forget that some accents are bloody hard to decipher - looking at you Peterhead

@SingingBabooshkaBadly

I can’t actually think of a scenario where Leavers would be taught a lesson
I agree. Whatever happened next they will just get more angry about the situation and Brext lies will NEVER be blamed.

Whatever happened next they will just get more angry about the situation and Brext lies will NEVER be blamed.

I agree Babooshka and Kenn - if anything less than wall-to-wall golden unicorns happens, it'll be because of the bullying EU, negative-thinking by Remoaners, sabotage by UnBeLeavers, etc.

{The UK has shown itself to be unreliable. It will take a lot to rebuild any trust.}
That will be the massive downside of any agreement, and part of why I don't think remain is an option. 40 odd years of not really joining in the EU project wholeheartedly followed by this shambles, it simply won't work.
It is totally heartbreaking for the many in the UK who have embraced being European properly to lose it all.

The worst time for a recession in the uk, ever. I am properly worried now.

I agree about the Leavers. They will never ever take responsibility, either for their original vote or the insane doubling-down that has followed.

prettybird I am hanging onto the idea of 'emigrating' to Scotland. It will mean leaving my DF here in the south east, as he would not want to come with us, but my Dbro and SIL will have to take responsibility for once. We will have to wait a couple of years until ds finishes school but tbh the way I feel at the moment I'd go tomorrow if I could.

The irony is that dp's (Leave-voting) parents say they would move to England if IndyRef2 was successful. Two retirees out, two young(ish), highly skilled 'migrants' in

Fennel

TisILeClerc No midgies on the East Coast

The wind is cold and the dark does go on a bit, but it’s also beautiful.

WhatWouldScoobyDoo
I have not seen much of the Scottish East coast, except a 'day trip' to Aberdeen. I am fortunate in that I have been, albeit often too briefly, to many beautiful countries but as my bones are getting on a bit I opted for somewhere South rather than North.

Aberdeen is a long way from anywhere. And it’s expensive. And the winters are long. And if you get a lovely sunny day the haar comes in - you can feel the temperature drop and it rolls in like a big brown smudge.

Apart from that it’s lovely