Westminstenders: Crisis. What Crisis

[RedToothBrush]

October is slowly rolling into November.

Your eyes, rightly, will be distracted by events the other side of the pond.

It won't be good and it won't be pretty and it will have an impact on what happens here in relation to Brexit in one way or another.

May seems to have headed off trouble makers for now. But that means nothing if she can't get a deal through parliament.

And if you think we are in anyway prepared for No Deal I'd like whatever drugs you are taking. That way lies only disorder and to put it bluntly, deaths.

We MUST find a deal, any deal to prevent that. Desperation is the final ingredients in this mess. Who will blink as they realise what's at stake?

The problem is though, is too few MPs have grasped what's at state, such is the quality of our elected representatives. And that's the truly terrifying bit.

If they can't work out the risk of no deal, they certainly not equipped to handle the fall out of no deal.

If you want to shit yourself anymore, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that the minister responsible for hauling all your food and medical supplies in the event if no deal, is Mr Christopher Grayling.

Start praying.

born I don’t tend to visit coffee shops either due to the cost. But I do love / need a cup of coffee of three in the morning.

I’m seriously considering weaning myself off tea and coffee, it will be easier to do it now than when I’m dealing with no deal fall out.

left without care for most of a day when SNOW hits.

Nescafe ?
and tea bags are so cheap, so light and easy to store in bulk, that I see no need to wean yourself off tesa

Coffee isn't that mad a thing to think about it. Us preppers call it "morale booster" preps - it even has a name . Stuff to cheer you up.
I have a hand grinder that, years ago, was used by friends in anothe country as a social event. We'd sit chat and take turns grinding coffee. Dh has an electric coffee grinder.
Also have a coffee maker that you make on the hob. Dh uses an electric one now but I gave him one for the hob years ago.
Coffee problem? Sorted.

Elderly people are massively useful in a crisis. They may struggle to do stuff but they know stuff that's really handy including the geography of an area and work arounds that we have now replaced with gadgets.
A sick and vulnerable relative with dementia is a challenge for the family in any event - have been through this.

Although I wanted remain I am not sure now, on one level. If it wasn't for friends, family and you folks I would really like the UK to crash out very badly just to teach the (leavers) a lesson. The full works, no planes, ships, power cuts, everything, for about 4 weeks.

There is the bloody minded part of me that wants this too. It's like some one pushing in front of you on an airport queue. I think is better to stand back with a generous sweeping arm gesture and say "you really want to go ahead of me, be my guest"

So sort of say 'you want this- have it then!' But the problem is the only reason for this approach is to teach people the consequences of their actions. But it doesn't work, and on this context the price is too high.

The negatives happen progressively so that makes the true effect. For example,our high street and household names are taking a huge hammering. It's easy to say it's s global recession, it's the increase in internet shopping etc.

However we have had internet shopping for over a decade. Many of these shops supply internet shopping too. The reality is I f it hadn't been for the fall in the pound (and the knock on effect on supplies and profit ) many businesses would have traded through it.The straw that is breaking the camel's back is our relinquishing leadership and membership of a mighty trading bloc. However because reasons are multifactorial it's easy for Leave politicians and voters to deny fudge the effect of our overall decision.

Nescafé! Noooooo...

• 'masks' the true effect not 'makes'

Must learn to proof read and wear my glasses.

But what about the coffee chains? Will people spend £2.75 on a cup of freeze dried coffee or cheapo teabag tea?

The estimated annual turnover of coffee chains in 2017 was 3.7 billion! Don’t know what actual profits are but that’s quite a lot of money.
In comparison, in 2016 the fishing industry landed fish worth £774 million.

My sources are of course reliable (I Googled).

Already on the look out for BeLeavers blaming it on everyone else.

So I’m looking forward to Brexit being overturned by the combined commercial might of Costa, Starbucks and Coffee#1, egged on by irate metropolitan elite caffeine addicts. (Or traitors as they will be called by the Daily Express.)

@Olennas
{[email protected]}
For the 'source' of the government notices. I only copied and pasted this from my 'inbox' so you may need to rummage on the gov.uk website to find it.

Part of the reasoning for my comment last night was that I am wondering if it would be fairer on the EU if the UK just left, as soon as possible. They are having to fork out loads of money that is damaging their companies and social infrastructure, although not as badly as the UK.
Although writing to Mr Barnier would be good, the EU is already well aware of how slim the vote margin was, and are probably aware more than they would say, of the various attempts at 'vote rigging'. Although the 'secret services' and security across the EU work collaboratively, you can bet that because of European history that each country will have a secret, secret service just as 'reserve'.

I believe you can make coffee from acorns, however the European crop fell a few weeks ago I think.

foragedfoods.co.uk/how-to-make-acorn-coffee/
I particularly like the way it says that the taste doesn’t actually resemble coffee.

I don't want a no deal Brexit at all, because of the risks to people on certain meds and to others already vulnerable due to poverty, disability etc

However, the flip side is that anything but a no deal Brexit will keep the current divisions as Brexiternity,
because Leavers will always blame any restrictions on Britannia Unchained as the reason for all bad effects of Brexit

Even the best case is that the divisions persist, with the bitter culture wars continually holding back the country and making it slide further down in relation to other developed countries

It would increase the chance of a very authoritarian govt, whose actions might also result in far more vulnerable people dying

The option that imo the EU now prefer is Barnier's original Norway+++, basically SM +a CU

After a few weeks / months of no deal, a desperate UK govt might well apply for this and a majority of the publi would agree

That would be like some form of Associate membership, which has been proposed before in the EU as a possible way for countries that would prefer to be in an outer hub

During Cameron's negotiations, this was one option offered, but his ego / nationalism would never accept that the UK could be anywhere but at the top table.

He just wanted this top spot without the obligations - he reportedly wanted the right to ignore any EU laws the UK doesn't like and ignore the ECJ
The original cake fantasy

It strikes me as very much like WW1 where we blundered into it, with devastating consequences. Historians will look back with incredulity to see a once still prosperous nation crash out of a union which was on the whole beneficial to it, because of a spat in one political party. A political at that which between 1997 and 2015 hadn't managed to command a majority of the electorate.

What is most worrying is that as far as I am aware everyone is concentrating on March 29th. Where are the plans for March 30th and preferably beyond?
Surely in the Budget (Monday?) Mr Hammond should be announcing huge funding of manufacturing infrastructure in the North and elsewhere. Restructuring of farming, and all the things that will be necessary to make the UK 'Great'.
So far it would appear that on March 30th, there will be a whole country and government sitting up in bed and saying/thinking, 'what the hell happens now'?
From the papers it suggests that Mr Hammond will be announcing much of the 'same old' which will NOT get the country out of the mess.

The option that imo the EU now prefer is Barnier's original Norway+++, basically SM +a CU

Which I am quite sure could have been well on the way to being agreed if the UK hadn't been so belligerent.

I have mostly given up coffee and drink a German "grain coffee",
ingredients: rye, chicory, barley, acorns, figs
it tastes nice, imo

peregrina from the EU side, that could have been agreed very quickly, with some UK bolt-ons for the City etc

Part of me also now thinks that a crash-out, No-Deal Brexit will, in the long term, be the only way of lancing the boil

I understand Babooshka's concern that the more rabid Brexshitters will just blame the EU for all the ills that then inevitably befall the UK (because it's a 3rd country you numpties and No, they don't know nor care who we are ) - but in my desired scenario, if Scotland gains its independence as a result of the clusterfuck that is Brexit, rejoins the EU, and is able to demonstrate by example that it is the fucktards in Westminster that are the problem , then it becomes more difficult to continue to blame the devastation on the EU. Plus of course, Scotland would welcome refugees from South of the border

But it's a very high price in the short term for the poorest and most vulnerable and too many "ifs" in that scenario

{Part of me also now thinks that a crash-out, No-Deal Brexit will, in the long term, be the only way of lancing the boil}
There has been a permanent criticism/distrust/ridicule/??? of the EU (and the structures before that) from the UK, by newspapers, public and too many in the government who were happy to sneer at the 'Europeans'.
A period where the UK really does have to 'go it alone' and lose the 'we are better than you' attitude is necessary. Unfortunately it is a high risk strategy and for the undeservedly poor and elderly, potentially fatal.
Europe has been forced to spend billions preparing for the UK exiting and while the preparations may not be complete it will annoy the hell out of them all if the UK just says 'OK, just bluffing'.

On a less serious note, Forget HIGNFY !

The Mash Report last night was a Remainers dream and all from the BBC !
The piece on being the right kind of immigrant was uncomfortably close to the truth!

Trade deals

Brexiters have always saif they expect the other countries in the world to happily roll over the treaties they have with the EU,
granting the same terms to the UK alone

After Brexit, I have always expected that other countries would take advantage of a UK on its own, suddenly without any trade deals at all.
Even Anglosphere "friends" - the US is especially ruthless in trade negotiations and uses its full bullying power, ask Canada

I expect the same reaction over the 40 or so FTAs the EU has with 60 non-EU countries and the 750 trade arrangements with countries around the world as this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/26/russia-brexit-liam-fox-wto-plan-uk

Russia is among 20 countries that are looking to squeeze a commercial advantage from Brexit
after blocking an attempt by the international trade secretary, Liam Fox, to fast-track a World Trade Organization deal on the UK’s terms of trade with the world.

Whitehall is now facing “up to two dozen” different negotiations with countries over how much meat and dairy produce will be permitted into the British market and what tariffs the UK will set on imports.

The development will pile pressure on the UK’s already strained resources.
< that's just the WTO. Now for the remaining 800 negotaiations >

Saw this tweet from one of the Icelanders that I follow

[[https://mobile.twitter.com/sigrunda
]]
Sigrun Davidsdottirir*_ @sigrunda

For us who come from an EEA country, it’s long been clear that for a country that’s against freedom of movement EEA isn’t a solution. And since EU is unlikely to break asunder the 4 freedoms just to please the UK, “customised” EEA is hardly on offer to the U.K...

EEA/EFTA is not an option for the UK if it keeps its red line on FoM.

Barnier explained it in pretty pictures with his "staircase" slide of the different options with the different redlines. But the UK Government still thinks it can ignore the rules and have its cake and eat it