No Brexit

[Singletomingle]

As it seems the tone on here is remain what does everyone think will happen should we revoke article 50. How will the EU react, what will Brexiteer MPs do and how will the 51% react.

@bellinisurge

I think my wit might have gone over your head lol!

@jasjas1973 - your wit is fantastic.

I am quite sure that jasjas was being sarcastic, but those were my thoughts too. We didn't want to know about the EU, so why are we trying to do deals with them? Leave and get on with recreating the Empire negotiating the trade deals that the rest of the world is desperate for. They should be done in an afternoon!

I do try!

But i'd love to know why, when we ve said we are leaving, we are soooo desperate to stay in so many aspects of the EU.....to the extent we'll be a rule taker, pay in and have no say....

May has even talked about a Mobility framework = FOM.

Of course leavers can't explain this can they?

The problem with 'just leaving' with no further discussion would be the payment of about £25 Billion for 'work in progress' that has to be paid. That is what the EU expects, and is legally binding.
At that point the UK will be out on the street in it's pants with NO deals, NO incoming food, NO external transport. And probably much reduuces electricity and a host of other things.
So on 30th March, Mr Fox can phone up the African countries where he pencilled in a deal, and says, OK I have my pen ready and make it official.
Similarly other deals he may have penciled in, in the USA.
Getting the CAA 'up to speed could take 6 months (airoplanes). Shipping, maybe a bit quicker for 'emergency' supplies. Manufacturing may well not class as an emergency, so you have BMW, JLR and many others screaming at you.
Depending what is agreed about the Ireland/NI border, whether it would be in the sea, there is a strong risk of 'tension' which may well appear in the UK.
Some or all these things WILL happen to a degree, so a 'just leave' is not simple.

1tisILeClerc not sure how legally binding the 25 billion is certainly if we refused to pay the EU would be struggling. Only 30% of the uks food comes from the EU only 20% of the UKs medicines come from the EU. As for flights I'm fairly sure you dont need to be in the EU to fly there ask Africa, Asia or America. If there are problems these will be solely down to the EU being bitter. As for the UK's reaction at a mild reaction half of those who voted for brexit are disillusioned with voting and abstain add in those who dont vote you could be looking at a ruling party supported by less than 20% of the population.

The 25 Billion (or thereabouts) has already been agreed by Mrs May and to default would crash the UK credit rating so low that hardly any other country would deal with the UK. It would be the equivalent of 'cash only'.
Flights have been covered to death on this and other threads, all the permissions and insurance is part of being in the EU. That would stop and it could take months to reestablish new systems. The EU is not being bitter, it is following rules that are written down that the UK is failing to read.

1tisILeClerc yes the 25 milliion has been agreed as part of a deal, no deal no money. Everything else there are international established rules including flights, it may be more expensive but that works both ways. It will be interesting how Spain and Greece manage without 6 months of British tourists or Germany without 6 months of exports to the UK.

Jesus Christ, not again!

Well, that would wreck our tourist industry on the high street, Ryan air, Easyjet, our car dealer network and lead to the collapse of 1million jobs in the Auto industry as they relocate to Europe.

Germany on the other hand would carry on exporting around the world, VW sells 250k cars to the UK, 4.2 billion cars to China.... they must be quaking!!!!

Our tourists make up 1 % of Spanish GDP, harsh but survivable.

Our agreements to fly etc are done through the EU, we d need to negotiate new memberships, that would take weeks and Heathrow would be closed.....

The 25 billion to be paid is over many years, its not a lump sum.

million NOT billion

The EU is not being bitter, it is following rules that are written down that the UK is failing to read.

Rules which the UK has helped to write. Even though the ERG tries to pretend that they never had a say, but then contradict themselves in the next breath by saying that May's plans will leave us as rule takers, not rule makers.

Singleto
If you walk out of a restaurant before the dessert course, you are still required to pay the bill for what you have had.£39 Billion has been established and promised by Mrs May IF we get the transition period until 2021 or whenever, the lower figure is what we will owe up to March 2019.
Who will trade with the UK if it is shown not to pay it's bills?

Only 30% of the uks food comes from the EU

That 30% also includes food imported to the EU under trade deals. The average WTO tariff on imported food would be around 20%, and there is no evidence that the countries that supply the remaining 20% of the UK’s food would be able to increase supplies.

As for flights I'm fairly sure you dont need to be in the EU to fly there ask Africa, Asia or America.

Ask the USA about the Open Skies agreement that covers flights between the EU and the USA.

you could be looking at a ruling party supported by less than 20% of the population.

The Tory vote at the 2017 election equates to around 20.4% of the UK population.

Everything else there are international established rules including flights

See Open Skies above.

It will be interesting how Spain and Greece manage without 6 months of British tourists or Germany without 6 months of exports to the UK.

UK tourists have a low per capita spend. Countries like Spain will target tourists with cash to spend, such as Northern Europeans, Scandinavians and the Chinese.

As for imports to Germany, German supply chains are factoring that in already by sourcing parts from EU27 countries and abandoning UK suppliers.

{As for imports to Germany, German supply chains are factoring that in already by sourcing parts from EU27 countries and abandoning UK suppliers.}
The German CBI TOLD German industry to diversify sources and to factor in the loss of the UK. To keep supplying the UK will now have to produce it to the same quality, but cheaper and maybe cheaper still if tariffs change. That means UK suppliers will be able to supply but being hit by a REDUCTION in income.
Food supplies are not really an issue as food will continue to be available from current sources, it will simply get rather more expensive.

Food supplies are not really an issue as food will continue to be available from current sources, it will simply get rather more expensive.

Don’t think it’s quite as simple as that - have a look at the HoL report “Brexit: food prices and availability”

publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeucom/129/129.pdf

I agree it is not as simple to implement, but I was taking from the point that the food exists in the world somewhere so can be bought. The food itself hasn't disappeared but the cost primarily will change and if a real 'no deal' happens then imports will stop for a while. It would certainly be a hell of a mess but given a month or few it will settle down to a new expensive normal.

If you have a product to sell and a desperate customer, you get to dictate terms. At least the customer will have a blue passport.

Is that some form of taking back control and dominating the world economy?

From that HoL report:

This contrast between Government confidence and industry concerns is striking, and reflects the tone of the evidence to this inquiry more broadly. The Government may not be worried about the potential for Brexit to impact on the price and availability of food, but the representatives of the food and farming industry, importers, port authorities and consumer organisations were vocal in their concerns.

I suspect you’d be looking at shortages for some considerable time, as well as short term and long term price increases.