How would having an election help?

[Bouledeneige]

Just been reading about the options for Brexit on the BBC news site and one option is to have a general election. Irrespective of the outcome how would that help?

We'd still need to decide between some key options:

1. leave with a deal based on the chequers proposal
2. leave without a deal and fall back on the World Trade Organisation trading status - ie tariffs for exports to EU
3. seek a new deal based on the Norway, Ukraine or Swiss options (like by March!?!)
4. hold a referendum on the options either with or without re-running the in or out vote again.

If Labour won a general election do we think the negotiation/resolution of this issue is that more likely before The end of March?

If the Conservatives won is resolution of this issue more likely? (I suppose their might be a new hard Brexit PM who would go for option 2)

If there was a hung parliament is success more likely?

Anyone out there who thinks the answer to any of these questions is yes?

But they do not represent the interests of their electorates in the house to which they were elected.
Sinn Fein cover many of the border constituencies which will be hardest hit by Brexit.
They really should hold their noses and represent their people.

There are many non EU residents in the UK who want in as well (Yanks for example)

Ta1kinpeace I’m not defending them, I’m just correcting a mistake upthread.

It won’t.

Except no one has the faintest idea how to get out of this shit, and they need to be seen to do something.

PB, the EU have indicated that they would probably agree to us retracting. Not the same as us being able to do so unilaterally.

As to Lord Kerr, intentions of draftsmen are really irrelevant to legal interpretation. To the extent that intention is relevant at all (and it often isn't), it's the intention of those who give the text its legal effect (so legislatures in the case of statutes, parties in the case of treaties etc). FWIW I think Lord Kerr is right, but it's not him saying it that makes it right, IYSWIM.

Not sure that I could stomach any more of watching politians putting their own career and ego ahead of national interest. Let’s be honest that’s what has led us here in the first place. We’ve been lied to all along an election is just going to be more of the same.

I can't keep up... didn't Labour promise to stay in the single market, and that solves a lot of the problems? Subject to possible revisions in future, but SM as the starting position.

People had the chance to vote for a party that actively campaigned on "cancelling Brexit" only just over a year ago. That was the Lib Dems. They tanked! All these people saying if only a party would campaign to stop brexit we'd vote for them. You are being ridiculous , you had this chance just a year ago!!

I'm not sure I want anyone but the Tories to handle Brexit. There is no possible way it can turn out good. If we stay, the hard core Leavers will be pissed off, if we crash out, the economy is fucked, if we have a Norway etc deal we might be able to salvage what is left of the economy but hardcore leavers will be pissed off and we'll be subject to all EU trade laws but with none of the say.

At this point, it's a case of damage limitation and whichever party handles it will take all of the blame (even though the Tories started this mess) and will not be in power in our lifetimes again.

Frequency

That's an interesting POV, does it come from a desire to Remain, or to Leave ?

I'm a committed remainer, but I have a similar thought process to you in that if we have to have Brexit, then only the Tories should curate it. Not because they are any good at it (the time to say "they would be" passed years ago) but because as (Macron said ) it's their baby, and they can bloody well look after it, and suffer the consequences.

I voted remain and I still think remaining is the least damaging option but we need to balance the damage Brexit will cause to the economy against the damage remaining will cause in terms of civil unrest.

Though I do think civil unrest is inevitable at this point. If we leave and things are as bad as its predicted, there will be civil unrest from those most effected. If we remain, there will be civil unrest from leavers. We were fucked from the second Cameron thought his willy-waving exercise was a good idea.

Frequency

Thanks for the reply. It's an interesting dynamic as the Tory party will need the support of Tory remainers in future ...

There will be civil unrest from those most affected. Though I do think civil unrest is inevitable at this point. If we leave and things are as bad as its predicted, there will be civil unrest from those most effected. If we remain, there will be civil unrest from leavers.

What if "most affected" and "leavers" are pretty much the same ? By your casting of the runes, we have civil unrest whatever, which is where I'm putting my money.

I suppose at the end of March, early April it is still pretty cold so less risk of widespread violence, compared to a nice sunny day like today.

I suppose the old 'not the nine o'clock news' gag could be appropriate.
'Come home to a real fire, buy a property in Wales'.

Maybe Theresa May should withdraw article 50 and reinstate it later when Parliament have agreed exactly what relationship we intend to have with the EU and what the solutions are to issues such as NI . It would buy us more time and take the pressure off so avoiding hasty decisions and deal making.Then if the EU reject all this, we have a second referendum.

if we have a Norway etc deal we might be able to salvage what is left of the economy but hardcore leavers will be pissed off and we'll be subject to all EU trade laws but with none of the say.

Norway is not subject to ALL EU trade laws and although it does not get to vote, it does have it's views heard so it does get a say

Part of the trouble is that the UK wants to be dominant in the EU (or better than it) but fails to acknowledge that the UK is a pretty small island, economy similar to France and a bit over half of Germany's. When the UK had the colonies it was of course a much bigger player.
There is a certain ruthlessness to Germany's capabilities as a manufacturing powerhouse and I think it is part of their 'psyche'. France has a different mindset, and most of the other Northern Europeans are I feel somewhere between the two, as indeed are the British. If the UK could lose the super competitiveness and be more collaborative, and make a better stab at making ALL of the UK good for it's citizens, things would be a lot better.

As much as I loathe JRM, the ERG are right: Canada ++ plus a FTA would work to sort out Norn. But Labour cares more about their party than best interests of UK. So Labour won't support that plan & DUP won't support FTA that isn't shared by rUK. Hence the mess we have.

No, an election won’t help, it would just delay the inevitable shit storm.

If the country is going to commit suicide it may as wel just get it over with.

IMHO Labour only want an election to win power - I don't have any confidence in them being able to sort out a deal or that they really have a coherent policy (though I'd trust Keir Starmer more than JC or JMD on that)... I really don't trust the Labour Party to manage the economy at all.

I can't imagine Theresa May would volunteer for another election with her magnetic personality... and she knows if she lost seats Boris would go all out to oust her. Sadly, I think I trust the Tories more than Labour to sort it out!

Ha! That's not saying much is it! That shows how deeply we are in the shit!

We're all doomed!

As much as I loathe JRM, the ERG are right: Canada ++ plus a FTA would work to sort out Norn.

That's just nonsense. "Canada" is a FTA. (What on earth do you think the agreement between Canada-and the EU is?!)

And it doesn't sort out the border (without the backstop).

An election doesn't seem likely to solve anything at all. I can't honestly see why Labour want one, given that they are polling up to 6% behind.

Part of the trouble is that the UK wants to be dominant in the EU

Yes we have delusions of greatness and yet an insecurity about the greatness we did have too.

My Italian and Polish friends ( one of whom did a politics degree) both said others saw the U.K. as a major EU player. They said and said their countries envied and aspired to the influence and position within the EU that we had.

The UK was dominant in the EU. Whatever you think about Thatcher, Blair and Brown, they were prominent in EU decision making. The single market was a policy driven by the British, as was the eastward extension of the EU to former eastern bloc states. Brown helped drive decisions taken during the financial crisis that prevented a meltdown on the US scale.

Cameron took a step back from that role, and May relinquished it completely.