How would having an election help?

[Bouledeneige]

Just been reading about the options for Brexit on the BBC news site and one option is to have a general election. Irrespective of the outcome how would that help?

We'd still need to decide between some key options:

1. leave with a deal based on the chequers proposal
2. leave without a deal and fall back on the World Trade Organisation trading status - ie tariffs for exports to EU
3. seek a new deal based on the Norway, Ukraine or Swiss options (like by March!?!)
4. hold a referendum on the options either with or without re-running the in or out vote again.

If Labour won a general election do we think the negotiation/resolution of this issue is that more likely before The end of March?

If the Conservatives won is resolution of this issue more likely? (I suppose their might be a new hard Brexit PM who would go for option 2)

If there was a hung parliament is success more likely?

Anyone out there who thinks the answer to any of these questions is yes?

Unless Labour ran on a "we will stay in" ticket, I would not vote for them. I don't want to crash out either.

If there's an election or another vote then we may extend the Article 50 period?

Would that help though ?

Bellini if there was an early election then would you vote for the Libdems as they are the only party who have promised to cancel Brexit.
If everyone who wanted Brexit cancelled (if mumsnet is to be believed) voted Libdem then they would win the election.

3 elections and possibly 2 national referendums in the space 3 years. And getting nowhere. God no.

In theory the UK can withdraw its A50 notice right up until 22.59 on 29 March 2019. So says Lord Kerr, who wrote the clause.

Not sure that the EU wouldn't want reassurance from the UK that the UK couldn't invoke it again for x number of years.

Don't see the EU extending the A50 notice for more than a maximum of 8 weeks (and that's pushing it) as anything longer would mean the UK participating in the 2019 EU Elections. And it wouldn't want to have to suffer from have the pleasure of the UKIP MEPs for the next 5 years (apparently, as the law stands, even if the UK subsequently leaves, the MEPs get to stay and draw salaries and expenses for doing nothing/be difficult )

@Ilovewhippets - I could hold my nose and vote Lib Dem but I'm not convinced about them either.

Can see how it would help, I feel like we would end up where we started. TM called the last election to get a clear mandate for Brexit - it wouldn’t be any clearer with another vote unless the campaigned on a specific deal or hard Brexit.

I guess the only benefit would be to get rid of the DUP who’s influence is not helping resolve the Irish border issue.

There is a tiny hope that if Theresa can get a big enough majority that she can ditch the DUP, she could do the "Irish border in the sea" compromise accaptable to the EU. Since Labour are currently focussing hard on pissing off what remains of their voters, that may be a possibility.

There is a tiny hope that if Theresa can get a big enough majority that she can ditch the DUP, she could do the "Irish border in the sea" compromise accaptable to the EU.

Alternatively she could lose the non-majority we have now. The best result for the country would be a parliament with no overall majority, nor way to form one without a larger party (e.g. LibDems, or SNP) being involved.

(I pity the Tory leader that has to approach the LibDems for help.)

Personally, any election is probably likely to result in little change. The mess we are in at the moment is too big for any single party to handle.

SNP have said in the past that they'd be willing to work with Labour in WM, but I don't see Labour being pragmatic enough to accept. It's a shitstorm in any event.

SNP have said in the past that they'd be willing to work with Labour in WM, but I don't see Labour being pragmatic enough to accept.

I really don't know enough about Scottish politics to comment. My view goes as far as if the will of the Scottish people is for a fresh IndyRef, then Westminster owes them one, since they were conned in the original one.

It's a shitstorm in any event.

We can certainly agree on that.

Doesn't help that Richard Leonard, the leader of the Scottish branch office Labour Party said in his speech yesterday that Scotland shouldn't have another Indyref, whereas Corbyn the day before hadn't discounted the possibility but there again, that would've meant actually taking a position

Now Corbyn has put himself in the position of, if he were to accept the principle of allowing a 2nd Indyref, over-ruling Richard Leonard and reinforcing the perception that the Scottish Labour Party is just a branch office or definitively ruling out a 2nd Indyref and pissing off all the former-Labour-now-SNP voters (like me).

The problem with the tribalism of UK politics is it tends to drive parties to feel they have to be different to "the other lot".

I don't think it would help at all, given how things are.

• it's not only the DUP who would object to NI being inside the CU. This would be a non-starter for many Conservatives.

• Labour have no clear position on Brexit and are still just wibbling.

• The EU are unlikely to grant an extension for us to have yet another GE.

• Many remainers would struggle to bring themselves to vote for Corbyn.

I suspect that another GE would lead to another hung parliament, no clarity at all.

Prettybird, it's not clear whether we can unilaterally revoke. The Q has just been referred to the Court of Justice www.crowdjustice.com/case/strengthening/. Unfortunately Lord Kerr's opinion is neither here nor there.

Many remainers would struggle to bring themselves to vote for Corbyn

I'm a remainer and have thought Corbyn a liability from the start. IF Labour ran on a Stay In platform I'd vote for them, though.

Flipflopping - hans't the EU itself acknowledged that the UK I refuse to say "we" could revoke?

I know that Jo Maughm's case has been referred to the ECJ for confirmation as to whether it is or isn't the case in law .

But one would have thought that the person who wrote the clause would have a reasonably accurate view as to what the legal intent of the clause was . I know he has gone on record in recent months saying it can be revoked. But you're right - he never expected anyone to be stupid enough to invoke it, so maybe he didn't think through all the eventualities.

Op I have no clue.

I'm a remainer and have thought Corbyn a liability from the start. IF Labour ran on a Stay In platform I'd vote for them, though.

+1

No deal means very, very big problems for the Irish border.

There is an element of doubt as Lord Kerr is a politician rather than lawyer so it may not have been nailed down as hard as it might have been. The INTENTION was there. I believe this to be the case.

This was the BBC's Reality Check analysis of whether A50 could be revoked.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39291512

Even though Tusk has also said it could be revoked, it does look like the ECJ needs to make a definitive legal ruling.

What there does seem to be agreement on is that it could be extended beyond the 2 years - but that that would require the unanimous agreement of all 28 countries and the UK has done soooooo much to get other countries behind it to look upon such a request favourably

So that goes back to my view that at most, the E27 would allow an extra 6-8 week extension - and even then, only if the UK were to give even just a hint of actually wanting to make a realistic deal. Not very likely.

Tories are utterly split but the leadership want OUT
Labour are utterly split but the leadership want OUT
LibDems want IN but have no clout
SNP want IN but have no impact south of the border
DUP want OUT
Sinn Fein want IN but never take their seats (just the cash)

Its an utterly depressing situation

Around a million Expats in Europe (presumably) want in.
Around 3 Million EU Expats in the UK (presumably) want in, unless they have voted with their feet and left already.
So that's 4 million that didn't get to vote.

To be fair, I don't think Sinn Fein do take their salaries.

I agree it's a shit storm with no good resolution whichever way you look at it.

Sinn Fein MPs don’t take an MPs salary as they don’t take their seats. They are entitled to expenses relating to the work they do for their constituents, as is any other MP.