Majority now support remain

[SoloD]

www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45098550

If there were to be a second referendum now, 52% would vote Remain and 48% Leave, an average of polls over the past three months suggests.

We must have a #peoplesvote on Brexit as the Brexit we are getting is not the one which was promised.

Motherof sorry, three not a couple, I stand corrected.

And I do think you are missing the point on the numbers; there are "3.8m EU citizens in the UK and only 1.3m UK citizens in the EU, you need percentages not absolute figures." there are 3.8m EU citizens in ONE country, but there are only 1.3m UK citizens spread between the rest of the EU27. There is nothing xenophobic in stating that the UK is far more attractive to foreign migration than rEU is to UK citizens - there must be some good reason... maybe because the UK has one of the easiest welfare systems to access (not the most generous, granted, but far easier to access than some of the more generous ones). Huge numbers of incoming migrants who come here to work do not take up skilled professional positions but do take low skilled low paid jobs and part of the attraction is undoubtedly the top ups available to them that they would not receive elsewhere.

User do you have any actual figures for the huge number of EU nationals who are simultaneously working and claiming WTC ?

fullfact.org/immigration/migration-and-welfare-benefits/

there are 3.8m EU citizens in ONE country, but there are only 1.3m UK citizens spread between the rest of the EU27. There is nothing xenophobic in stating that the UK is far more attractive to foreign migration than rEU is to UK citizens -

Don't forget that many more UK citizens have emigrated to non-EU anglophone countries than to the EU.

It's more complicated than you are suggesting. Yes, the UK has been a popular destination for EU migrants, because relative to many other EU countries it has had more job opportunities, partly because of a more dynamic job market and partly because the UK education system has failed to train enough young people in occupations with skills shortages.

Language is also a big factor. Most students across the EU learn English: it's often compulsory to take a MFL until school leaving age (and beyond) and English is usually the MFL of choice. In the UK, OTOH, very few students leave school with functional skills in a foreign language. This drastically limits job opportunities in the EU27 - where I live in France very few British migrants are formally employed, because most don't have the language skills to work in a French-speaking environment. The majority seem to have small businesses catering for other English speakers (gîtes, odd jobs, building work, estate agency etc).

It is also probable that the numbers are wrong. We don't really know how many EU27 citizens are in the UK, and the estimates of UK in EU are even more problematic, because so many fly under the radar and remain theoretically UK resident, maintaining a property and paying taxes in the UK and relying on an EHIC.

But I guess User the main point is , what is the amount the UK pays out in benefits to EU nationals in comparison to the tax and NI contributions made by EU nationals. So what is the net amount ?

Whatever is it is , will be miniscule in comparison to the economic impact that Brexit will undoubtedly have on the UK.

I personally think that the dialogue has changed so much since before the referendum , where the public were offered so much , to the present day where we are being told that actually no-one said it would be better and it will in fact be worse for an awful lot of people who were expecting better.

The margin of error in political polls is accepted to be around 4% so it doesn’t show much unfortunately

Frumpety not sure whether this link will work, but according to government figures 43% of our tax credit bill and 16% of total in work benefits were paid to EU nationals. 43%. I'd say that was a huge figure.

“between 37 per cent and 45 per cent of the EEA nationals (excluding students) who were resident in the UK having arrived in the preceding 4 years were in households claiming either an in-work or out- of-work benefit or tax credit" - again, this shows that a significant number of migrants are not in jobs which allow them to support themselves and their families.

I absolutely agree that some skilled migrant workers are essential to any country's socio-economic development, but a large influx of low paid and often overworked and undervalued people degrades both hose individuals and also the lower end of the native working population who see their wages depressed and blame this on the migrants.

Those complaining post-referendum that the price of their fruit or their barista coffee will increase if the migrants leave should be utterly ashamed of themselves. First world problems.

researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7445/CBP-7445.pdf

Mistigri Don't forget that many more UK citizens have emigrated to non-EU anglophone countries than to the EU.

I agree, but in order for all those UK citizens to emigrate they will have had to go through rigorous visa and immigration control procedures to ascertain whether they were able to support themselves and also contribute to the local economy and community. Generally, those with serious criminal records would be rejected; as it currently stands any EU citizen with a criminal record could potentially be refused entry to the UK but in practice this is less likely as not all entrants are scrutinised at the borders.

Motherof thank you, you are correct; EU citizens make up 43% of non UK claimants. The 16% is correct as an overall in-work claimant figure.

Just created an account to point out that it is 6.8% not 43%!! So not huge at all.

Ahhh...too slow!

That is an interesting report and pretty much supports the case for allowing EU citizens to work in the UK. Thanks for linking.

I agree, but in order for all those UK citizens to emigrate they will have had to go through rigorous visa and immigration control procedures to ascertain whether they were able to support themselves and also contribute to the local economy and community.

So what? We were talking about numbers; I gave some reasons why there may be more EU in UK than the other way round. Your response is "look! squirrel!".

It is by the way open to the UK to register EU citizens to ensure that they meet FOM criteria; the decision not to do this is the UK's alone.

The main reason why more British citizens don't work in the EU is their lamentable language skills.

I grow my own fruit User , got a bumper pear crop should you start to exhibit worrying symptoms of scurvy when post Brexit Farmageddon occurs

Thanks Frumpety. Would you like some of my bountiful tomatoes in return? 🍅🍅🍅

Mistigri your opening line was "Don't forget that many more UK citizens have emigrated to non-EU anglophone countries than to the EU." and you think I've gone off squirrelling?

"partly because of a more dynamic job market" given that a large percentage of migrant workers come for seasonal and low paid jobs, can we really describe that as part of the dynamic market?

"and partly because the UK education system has failed to train enough young people in occupations with skills shortages." chicken and egg; do we welcome migrant labour because we don't train enough people to fill our skills shortages, or do we not bother to train our youth because it's cheaper to brain drain other countries who've already done the training for us, leaving those countries with a deficit and us with a circular training argument?

An argument that yet again could be solved by the UK Government should they ever be bothered User

Would love your bountiful toms , nowt better than homegrown toms

^^ Except for gin

I wonder what the stats are on seasonal workers , how many of them come for a short season then return home ?

You can believe these polls if you wish but they prove nothing. Curtice - the BBC poll - is a remainer, the same as the BBC who employed him.

The Guardian 'poll' was carried out by some unknown market research company, based on churning two lots of YouGov data, not new research, for a paper that has always opposed this country being a self-governing democracy. YouGov are fundamentally unreliable anyway - run by the husband of a former EU Commissioner, they do not poll random people but rely on their own self-selected panels. They were the people who, after the referendum polls had closed, announced the result as 52/48 - for Remain.

There is no need for, and will not be, any 'people's vote', or however you try to disguise a second referendum. All we are seeing is Project Fear Part 2, trying to frighten us into accepting May's ludicrous BRINO. No thanks.

We will be leaving at the end of next March, almst certainly on WTO terms. It will be fine.

And I'm convinced at least a few of the anti-Brexit commenters on here are paid EU shills.

@WhollyFather .... You'll get your wish, whether we'll be fine is another matter but we all love an optimist, especially one with nothing to back it up with.

@WhollyFather - still waiting for my payment for repeatedly saying this vote has left us in the shit. How much will I get per post?

Wish I could get paid . It might have provided a nest egg to cushion the shit storm that a No Deal/WTO Brexit would bring upon the UK even if it might have the positive effect of bringing forward Scottish independence

And this is the last comment I will make in relation to paid schills - given my suspicions about certain posters who consistently post anti-EU (and/or "squirrel" type) posts. Given that I've never had a post deleted, I'm not going to elaborate on my suspicions .

I don't want what are otherwise constructive conversations derailed