Westministenders: A LOOOONNNGGGGGGGG Hot Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has officially demoted Raab and the Brexit Department to just being responsible for practical implimentation in the UK and not negogitions.

This shouldn't be a surprise, its been the case in reality for some time, much to David Davis annoyance.

The official government position now seems to be scare the shit out of everyone about the possibility of No Deal in order to force the EU to make a deal. Jeremy Hunt has been dutifully spelling this out, by talking about an 'accidental' Brexit.

The government are already outsourcing responsibility for this potential eventuality to industy and business by telling them they need to stockpile food in order to keep supply lines going. This WILL mean price rises will start to happen soon. It also means there is no coordinated government plan and if businesses can't afford to do this as its heavily dependant on having sufficient cash flow in reserve to be able to do it, or don't want to, then you, me and everyone else is going to be well and truly on their own. Whilst the public are not being told to stockpile, its hard to justify not doing so, if this is the current government line.

The government has also done a u-turn on when the repeal of the European Communities Act will come into force. They fought hard to have it fixed for 29th March 2019. Thats now been rolled back to Dec 2020. This is fine, but in practice, makes no difference what so ever if we have no deal or the EU refuse to honour a transition deal on the terms the UK want. The ERG will also go nuts at it and try to get May to roll back on it.

Raab has also made a point of saying that if we don't have a deal by October (rather than midnight 29th March 2019) we are going into No Deal land by default.

Parliament has now broken up for the summer, with May surviving, so things are likely to be a little quieter for a few weeks, but come September this is all going to blow up with avengance.

If you think the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster, just wait for the Autumn.

Buzzfeed investigation:

www.buzzfeed.com/richholmes/care-price?utm_term=.hdmG7jLMWK#.oynLlAZO3a
Danger And Despair Inside Cambian Group, Britain's Largest Private Child Care Home Provider
Big rewards for investors and executives, “chaos” and “unhygienic” conditions for children.

But while Cambian has reaped the benefits of its corporate recovery, young people in its care have endured decrepit conditions and even suffered violent assaults, a BuzzFeed News investigation has found. Documents and interviews show vulnerable kids forced to share close quarters with dangerous peers, rooms marred by vomit spatter and broken furniture, and homes spiralling out of control under the watch of poorly trained staff.

And

A BuzzFeed News investigation has found severe failings across Britain’s children’s care sector, which has become dominated by for-profit companies. Private providers charge taxpayers millions, yet their facilities are rated subpar more often than homes run by nonprofits or local governments, according to a BuzzFeed News analysis of the latest available regulator data.

Does it not remind you the US and private companies being in charge of the detention centres (sorry what are they care centres?) for immigrants children?.

Some services just can NOT be left to private companies.
It’s true for care of children, who unlike elderly people, will not have anyone to come and see them and therefore protect them.
It’s true for the ATOS etc... for disability benefit. It’s also actually true for the NHS amd the education (see the academies).

I’ve never understood the british idea that things are always better done by private companies (better value for money etc..).

Food retailer to the bbc
"There simply isn't any spare slack in the supply chain to do this. There are no slightly-under-packed lorries or empty warehouses available to do this at scale.
To suggest it could even be done if required is incredibly naive."

Joking about stockpiling on the today programme. When will the panic buying start?

The government has said private citizens are not to be informed about stockpiling as they don't think they need to / should do.

Instead they have outsourced stockpiling to the private sector and will be informing them in August / September

Who have said they can't stockpile.

What could possibly go wrong?

Meanwhile there's a Norwegian journo looking for people to talk to on the preppers thread.

www.conservativehome.com/frontpage/2018/07/newslinks-for-thursday-26th-july-2018.html?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter
Support mounting for ‘EFTA option’ – but not for May

Con Home article.

Ons @ ons
UK households' outgoings have surpassed their income for the first time since 1988, with the average household experiencing a £900 shortfall in 2017

I’ve gone back to feeling a bit positive again.

It’s such a hideous car crash I simply can’t believe a no deal crash out will actually happen.

I think the danger is that it will happen BECAUSE people are convinced it couldn't possibly happen.

My DH keeps saying things like, "But they wouldn't do that! Voters would be angry!"

It's taken me two years, but I've come to the realisation that the whole point is that "they" are a wealthy hard right cabal who think "the people" are all lazy and entitled. Their view is that we need a good dose of Victorian-style desperation to get us off our arses and so we'll work harder and stop depending on government providing things like food security, healthcare, or pensions. That's why Boris is in close contact with Steve Bannon - he wants what Steve is selling.

The EU have just published a transcript of Raabs first meeting with Barnier.

I'm derailing this a bit now: look at what's happening in the thread I started in AIBU. Immediately attracted negative posts about how MNetters don't want to talk about it and how we should stay in our corner. I hope it's not a reflection of wider society (probably is)

Immediately attracted negative posts about how MNetters don't want to talk about it

The Leavers are angry that negative discussion will frighten the unicorns away.

Another traitor here.

I am always a bit uneasy about the idea of patriotism, but then I read Obama's speech at the 50th anniversary of the march in Selma.

As we commemorate their achievement, we are well-served to remember that at the time of the marches, many in power condemned rather than praised them. Back then, they were called Communists, half-breeds, outside agitators, sexual and moral degenerates, and worse – everything but the name their parents gave them. Their faith was questioned. Their lives were threatened. Their patriotism was challenged.

And yet, what could be more American than what happened in this place?

What greater expression of faith in the American experiment than this; what greater form of patriotism is there; than the belief that America is not yet finished, that we are strong enough to be self-critical, that each successive generation can look upon our imperfections and decide that it is in our power to remake this nation to more closely align with our highest ideals?

That’s what America is. Not stock photos or airbrushed history or feeble attempts to define some of us as more American as others. We respect the past, but we don’t pine for it.

I think I could sign for that

We respect the past, but we don’t pine for it.

Nice soundbite ....

#respectthepastdontpineforit

A TImes report claims “There is potential to have talks between all 28 EU leaders.”

The Uk govt fears that, unless EU leaders intervene directly, the commission will kill off May’s proposals, isolating her and increassing the chance of no deal.
However, the EU leaders are likely to say the same as Barnier, possible exceptions being far-right Hungary & Poland

Nathalie Loiseau, the French Europe minister

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/26/brexit-not-too-late-for-uk-to-change-its-mind-and-stay-in-eu-on-same-terms-says-french-minister-politics-live

Barnier does represent views of EU member states

“There should be no mistake. Michel Barnier does not represent only the commission.
He is the negotiator for the European Union.
He gets his mandate and his guidelines from the heads of state and government.
And we have discussed it regularly at the level of ministers.
We meet with Michel Barnier on a regular basis. So do the heads of state and government.
So there is no difference between what Michel Barnier says and what we would say individually, each and every member state.”

Also said:
Brexit: Not too late for UK to change its mind and stay in EU on same terms

She stressed the disadvantages of any A50 extension

#nevercomplacent

Norman Smith @ bbcnormans
No Deal Brexit likely to mean "pretty significant increase" in cost of fruit and veg says former trade minister and Waitrose boss.

When will the panic buying start?

I'm half-joking but partner went to buy some food on Sunday and had to go to various shops just to get basics. He said (jokingly) "Brexit has already started" when he came in. But since then, I keep noticing emptier shelves but it might be because I'm conscious of it.

So with the exception of Wetherspoon and dyson are there any other businesses that haven’t spoken out by the negatives of Brexit?

No Deal Brexit likely to mean "pretty significant increase" in cost of fruit and veg

Sounds overly optimistic to me.

An increase in the price of the stuff we can still get. I'm guessing an awful lot we won't get anymore.

And that's before bananas are a thing of the past.

Stockpiling in the short term will be sold as a boost to the economy.

When will the panic buying start?

And would you notice at Sainsburys ? They sometimes look like they've been hit by preppers anyway.