Westministenders: A LOOOONNNGGGGGGGG Hot Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has officially demoted Raab and the Brexit Department to just being responsible for practical implimentation in the UK and not negogitions.

This shouldn't be a surprise, its been the case in reality for some time, much to David Davis annoyance.

The official government position now seems to be scare the shit out of everyone about the possibility of No Deal in order to force the EU to make a deal. Jeremy Hunt has been dutifully spelling this out, by talking about an 'accidental' Brexit.

The government are already outsourcing responsibility for this potential eventuality to industy and business by telling them they need to stockpile food in order to keep supply lines going. This WILL mean price rises will start to happen soon. It also means there is no coordinated government plan and if businesses can't afford to do this as its heavily dependant on having sufficient cash flow in reserve to be able to do it, or don't want to, then you, me and everyone else is going to be well and truly on their own. Whilst the public are not being told to stockpile, its hard to justify not doing so, if this is the current government line.

The government has also done a u-turn on when the repeal of the European Communities Act will come into force. They fought hard to have it fixed for 29th March 2019. Thats now been rolled back to Dec 2020. This is fine, but in practice, makes no difference what so ever if we have no deal or the EU refuse to honour a transition deal on the terms the UK want. The ERG will also go nuts at it and try to get May to roll back on it.

Raab has also made a point of saying that if we don't have a deal by October (rather than midnight 29th March 2019) we are going into No Deal land by default.

Parliament has now broken up for the summer, with May surviving, so things are likely to be a little quieter for a few weeks, but come September this is all going to blow up with avengance.

If you think the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster, just wait for the Autumn.

Also, it isn't a one-sided FTA at all, just an emergency wave through by the UK
as there would be no time for the EU to pass a trade deal:

it has to go through the EU heads of govt (Qualified Majority Voting), the EU Parliament (majority vote) and all the national and regional EU member Parliaments (about 40) and any ofn them can veto - remember the Belgian state Walloon vetoing the first Ceta draft in 2016

I forgot one terrible disadvantage:

If all countries can export freely to the UK - no tariffs, no checks - they have no incentive to do any trade deal with the UK, because no deal would be that good

That would last until the UK can at least get a quick trade arrangement with the EU for essential supplies

• no time for a full FTA which typically take 5-15 years (not just the EU) -

so possibly indeed a limited one-sided FTA, with a framework for a CETA type or whatever later

I really hope in the event of no deal that the UK would instead see sense within a few weeks, abandon its red lines
(new PM ?) and plump for Norway+, with a long transition under 2018 terms (except voting rights) to start immediately.
That would immediately allow all UK exports to the EU as before, all UK certifications etc
The UK trades now with the rest of the world under EU terms, so hopefully the UK & EU could work out some waivers to also reapply the EU trade deals with non-EU countries immediately too

Any trade deal has to be agreed unanimously with the EU 27 (and some of their regional assemblies) so you then come up against the rock and a hard place of May/the ERG's red lines on immigration and the EU's 4 pillars including freedom of movement.

Brexit section on The One Show about the possibility of a 2nd Ref. It has already mentioned that May is planning stockpiling and army on the streets!!!

Blimey, that's strong stuff for a Monday teatime on the Pravda BBC. I hope it knocks some sense into some people.

A CETA-type deal wouldn't cross redlines

EXCEPT
the RoI - and other member countries it persuades to support it - might veto any deal that did not remove the need for an NI border (that would have had to been brought in after Brexit, in some form under WTO rules)
AND
the EU would probably refuse to negotiate any deal - other than a one-sided deal to send essential imports the UK needs -
until the UK pays its previously agreed bill of €45 billion or whatever over the next few years.

This is an example why EU countries might not be too concerned about losing some Uk tourists,
but would want to keep respectable residents

Another example of what pp have referred to upthread, of increased callousness and less feeling of being restrained by social conventions of decency ?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/30/british-stag-group-in-spain-paid-homeless-man-to-get-tattoo

British tourists on a stag party in Benidorm have provoked outrage by paying a homeless man to have the name of the groom tattooed on his forehead, a local business leader has said.

Karen Maling Cowles, the president of the Benidorm British Business Association, said the group gave 34-year-old Tomek, originally from Poland, €100 (£89) to have “Jamie Blake, North Shields, NE28” inked on his head,
although it was not completed because he was in too much pain.

Residents of the Spanish resort criticised the stag group after the tattoo parlour posted a photo on Facebook, since taken down, of Tomek getting the tattoo.

Maling Cowles, who tracked Tomek down after seeing the picture, said:
“I was shocked to actually see it staring out at you.
On a human level, that’s disgusting; that could be my son.
The community is disgusted about it and many tourists too.
It’s awful, taking a vulnerable person’s situation and thinking throwing a bit of money gives you a quick bit of fun.”

She said Tomek was jaundiced, had the shakes and told her he was an alcoholic.
He said he had walked 2,700km to Benidorm after the collapse of his relationship with his girlfriend, and as a result had back pain which visibly hampered his ability to walk.

&He added that after spending some of the money the British tourists had paid him, he was attacked and robbed of the remaining €17 on the beach.^

That story is disgusting BigChoc

The only thing I can say for it is that at least Jamie Blake of North Shields NE28 is well and truly named and shamed. If I were his fiancee, I'd dump him. If I were his boss - I'd be thinking about sacking him. That's very specific information about himself he's given out and his actions might bring the company into disrepute.

Another lovely story here... There's a thread about it in active at the moment.

www.msn.com/en-gb/news/crime/four-teens-arrested-after-yobs-‘attack-disabled-woman-with-flour-and-eggs-before-posing-for-snapchat-photo/ar-BBLfpQI?li=BBoPRmx&item=personalization_enabled%3Afalse

In the parallel Tory Universe, British trains are the envy of Europe.

Lets make angry people angier.

Cos there is no other news.

The Columnist @Sime0nStylites
So let me get this right, we’re going to preserve the UK’s financial hub status by making it more difficult for European institutions to sell into the UK...🤔

I missed this earlier in the month:

Liberty and Organisations campaigning for Disability Rights said the government’s trade bill gave ministers powers to give up disability rights protections in exchange for deals with other countries

https://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/brexit-bill-will-give-ministers-power-to-exchange-trade-deals-for-rights/

Martha Spurrier, director of Liberty, said: “This trade bill turns crucial protections into bargaining chips.

“With no consent from parliament or the public, ministers would be able to dispose of vital protections against discrimination and prevent equal access to jobs, education, transport and public services simply because another country thinks equality gets in the way of trade.

Yup, and then disabled people are being told they are fit for work so they can't get benefits either. Can't get access to work or training, can't travel there anyway, and then can't get benefits either.

We don't know the half of what goes on in the sleazy world of Westminster...
Steve Baker and the Institute for Economic Affairs ( 'an educational charity, does not routinely declare its donors, which are known to include tobacco, oil, alcohol and gambling companies or associations.' ) are right in the middle of this one.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/30/labour-calls-for-inquiry-into-iea-thinktank-over-cash-for-access-claims

Here is Pete North's unrolled thread telling more of the story, including Vote Leave and the ERG:

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1023913655337996288.html

Twitter link:

mobile.twitter.com/PeteNorth303/status/1023913655337996288

And another sleaze story from last year:

mobile.twitter.com/PeteNorth303/status/891758316921270276

Also, re the Sky survey - is it very wrong of me to think it might be slightly skewed towards leaver views, given Sky’s customer base? Or am I making unfounded assumptions?

Sorry, Talkstotrees, as ever I’m playing catch-up on these threads. I know the thread has moved on (still not caught up...) and this is an aside anyway, but what is Sky’s customer base, in your view, that makes you think that? DH and I are remainders but we’re Sky customers. We subscribed after a woeful experience with another internet provider and DH wanted the sports channels. I’m a bit taken aback someone might assume I’m likely to be a leave voter - or worse(!) - based on this.

I’m hoping it’s something to do with the age of Sky subscribers. We’re both over 50 so already being pigeonholed by some on that basis - at least in that case it wouldn't be an extra factor for people to make assumptions about us!

There’s quite a lot of good stuff on Sky Arts and Sky Atlantic btw

BBC talking about 5 ways Brexit could affect your holiday.

Presumably holidays are too divisive a subject for discussion ?

Singing, yes I was an arse Sorry. I’m not sure exactly why I thought that -just my predjudice I guess. Your post has made me look at myself, and I thank you for that. Nothing to do with age (I’m 54), more to do with my faults. Even attempting to explain my comment is tying my brain in knots.
Apologies.

(Btw, what did you mean by “or worse!”)

Sky News has been noticeably more informative than BBC news for quite a few years now, not just Brexit

I’m hoping it’s something to do with the age of Sky subscribers.

Sky know exactly what - and when - you like to watch. They can micro-micro-target into their customer base, if they wanted to.

Stewart Lee (mentioned upthread) made a good point, when he commented that after his second BBC series, Sky offered him a lot more money to do 2 series on Sky. The point being that Sky gave not a toss for any artistic endeavour, but just wanted to hoover up a tranche of Stewart Lee fans who they could "marketarize" to (my word).

That's why there are sometimes some surprisingly highbrow shows and events on Sky. Not because the Dirty Digger appreciates the finer things in life. More because it's a relatively cheap way to snap up certain moneyed demographics that might have missed Skys charms before now.

Seems I need to revisit Sky. Trouble is, I’m awfully tight

news.sky.com/story/13-mile-lorry-park-may-last-many-years-after-brexit-impact-reports-reveal-11454991

Pretty much everything we have said on here. Is it not rather dangerous to have the hard shoulder used as a lorry park? What do you do if your car breaks down?

Sky news is on freeview/freesat :)

Just a thought about the heat wave and subsequent shortages. If the brexiteers argument is that European farmers will demand no checks on the borders and food will get through because they won't want to lose the trade, will they be less worried about this if they have a smaller harvest anyway because of the weather?

Or will the shortages be over by next March? I am a totally useless gardener so I don't really know anything about crop times. My grandad would be horrified, he was a market gardener and developed his own strains of tomatoes and things!

Just thinking that a perfect storm of events could come together next March.

I’m not even slightly a farming expert, but even at the best of times I don’t think March is usually considered a bountiful month for harvests - maybe there are hitherto undiscovered winter-fruiting Unicorn Bushes that we’ll be able to exploit?

YouGov pressing issues ....