Westministenders: A LOOOONNNGGGGGGGG Hot Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has officially demoted Raab and the Brexit Department to just being responsible for practical implimentation in the UK and not negogitions.

This shouldn't be a surprise, its been the case in reality for some time, much to David Davis annoyance.

The official government position now seems to be scare the shit out of everyone about the possibility of No Deal in order to force the EU to make a deal. Jeremy Hunt has been dutifully spelling this out, by talking about an 'accidental' Brexit.

The government are already outsourcing responsibility for this potential eventuality to industy and business by telling them they need to stockpile food in order to keep supply lines going. This WILL mean price rises will start to happen soon. It also means there is no coordinated government plan and if businesses can't afford to do this as its heavily dependant on having sufficient cash flow in reserve to be able to do it, or don't want to, then you, me and everyone else is going to be well and truly on their own. Whilst the public are not being told to stockpile, its hard to justify not doing so, if this is the current government line.

The government has also done a u-turn on when the repeal of the European Communities Act will come into force. They fought hard to have it fixed for 29th March 2019. Thats now been rolled back to Dec 2020. This is fine, but in practice, makes no difference what so ever if we have no deal or the EU refuse to honour a transition deal on the terms the UK want. The ERG will also go nuts at it and try to get May to roll back on it.

Raab has also made a point of saying that if we don't have a deal by October (rather than midnight 29th March 2019) we are going into No Deal land by default.

Parliament has now broken up for the summer, with May surviving, so things are likely to be a little quieter for a few weeks, but come September this is all going to blow up with avengance.

If you think the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster, just wait for the Autumn.

The not giving a shit of the rest of the UK is also terrifying wrt to NI.

Clash, apparently the uk now has better growing conditions than the champagne region for english sparkling wine. (We need a better name for it dont we?)

Its supposed to currently be better.

I had a bottle for my birthday recently, and I must say its damn good though I couldn't tell you if its better than champagne as im not that much of a connoisseur.

The wine industry in the uk is very much on the rise as a result. So thanks global warming.

NI story Yugoslavia./ Irish war
Anyone who wants this has blood on their hands.
Already.

Yes, the blood plasma service was mostly sold off:
www.theguardian.com/business/2013/jul/18/bain-capital-plasma-resources-uk

Iirc, the reason that a unilateral waiver on tariffs is that we have to drop them - and the checks? - on everything that comes into the country, not just stuff from specified countries (or the EU) - so that would include chlorinated chicken, subsidised agricultural products, GM corn, potentially contaminated baby milk powder, lead containing paint/plastics on toys.....

And the UK farming industry would be history (along with most of our manufacturing industry)

Happy to be corrected/reassured though.

Home distilling ....

I suppose that's good news on the wine front. But bad news for the planet in general.

And another good thing with brexit, I may be forced to give up smoking.

Well, the positives just keep stacking up.

Also, I believe their will be stricter limits on what tobacco people can bring back from their week in benidorm? My Brother in law will be most pissed.

Thing about cigarettes is - they're potentially currency.

Chocolate, cigarettes and dollars.

If sterling collapses.

☹️

More about the blood plasma service being sold on to China.

Can't believe I'm even thinking these things.

Normal is somewhere behind us.

🙁

Wrt 'nasty verbal assaults on women' - if nothing else, Brexit is all about 'othering', and putting people and groups who have been othered in their place.

It's open season on women, on foreigners or those perceived as foreign, on people with any kind of expertise, and empathy is in very short supply.

There is a link between Brexit and toxic masculinity.

Iwasntthere Under WTO rules, a unilateral waiver on import checks would have to be non-discriminatory and apply to all countries, not just EU ones and all UK international ports & airports

R North says it is the only immediate fix to avoid genuine shortages of food and essential supplies, components etc and clearly this would be the priority.

However, this means letting in food & other goods totally unchecked from countries with much lower standards like in Africa, Asia, China

• remember the 2008 contaminated babyformula in China that made 300,000 babies illm hospitalised 60,000 and killed several babies there - also unsafe electrical goods, toys etc

Obviously smugglers would take advantage of this to bring in guns, drugs, counterfeit goods, animals, people ...

Despite the risks, we'd still have to do this
BUT
^it would take organising and emergency legislation to forbid any British lorries but empty ones travelling to EU ports
and EU drivers would have to take over at the ports, as only a total of 103 Uk truck drivers would be licenced there.^

So, there would have to be significant infrastructure at the British end to check lorries, to guarantee to the EU countries that all are empty, so they just wave them through to be loaded.

That's a concern: how long this incompetent govt - or an equally incompetent successor - would take to set up the legislation, resources, infrastructure, staff - presumably existing personal from the armed forces or Customs

I'm certain, even with no deal, that the EU would agree immediately to prioritise essential food and goods that the UK needed, not the highest value luxury goods the EU manufacturers wanted to export.

That's goodwill to a neighbour, even one with rude and aggressive politicians and doesn't styrain any EU or international laws.

Yes, I certainly agree things have felt more hostile lately.

When I've been out there's always more of an undercurrent of tension. Reports of violent crime and sexual assault seem to be up where I live.

And more worryingly their seems to be less of a reaction to it.

I live in a small northern city that really isn't much more than a town, and with a relatively low crime rate. If there was a stabbing or a sexual assault it would be talked about widely and condemned. Now its making the press but barely anyone is batting an eyelid other than trying to find someone to blame (including in more than one comment, the victim herself).

I'm going to check out some figures later to satisfy my curiosity.

Waving through all imports would mean a horrendous trade deficit, with exports mostly stopped and essential imports still coming through

Many farms and businesses would go bust, unless the govt haemorrhages money and subsidises them fully, to tide them over - and some still would later, because of lost customers

However, the UK has currency to last several months at least, which should be time for the govt to hopefully accept an emergency Norway+ deal = the EU wouldn't turn the screw; it would be just the deal that Barnier has been recommending - with a long transition period under current (2018) conditions

Or if it / the country remains batshit, an efficient govt () could negotiate enabling the UK to regain its international certification rights for its manufactured goods, pharma, food, airports, ports, planes, ships, captains etc
and take the minimum 6 months to get on all the EU databases for exporting as a 3rd country (under WTO terms)

Sorry, yes - a waiver as an emergency measure must be non-discriminatory and brings the safety risks you describe, so is definitely an emergency rather than ideal plan. But in the article he describes a unilateral free trade agreement with the EU - zero tariffs on imports, export tariffs to EU would apply (can't remember if article specifies how these would be defined - WTO schedules?). So a stop-gap trading arrangement while a deal can be obtained. Safety concerns mitigated by the fact that it isn't a unilateral waiver for all countries but a free trade agreement with EU.

clash First wait until there are flights / ferries there, in the event of no deal !

Are you old enough to remember before the Single Market and FOM ?
I remember the import controls and customs checks.

There will be strict ( fairly low) limits on how much you can bring back for personal use only of:
each of alcohol, tobacco, perfume, plus a total value limit on other consumer goods like electronics or clothes

Trade deficit of a one-sided FTA would be mitigated to an extent by currency slide - obviously depending on the tariffs and currency valuations.

Iwasntthere North explains in various earlier blogs why most UK exports would be stopped for some time - not so much the tariffs that the EU is required under WTO rules to apply to all 3rd countries without a deal -
but NTBs (Non-Tariff Barriers):

• all food / agricultural exports immediately and iirc he said for at least 6 months until we get on the EU database
• all other goods that need certification, since the UK automatically drops out of being able to certify its products after no deal Brexit so that's most manufactured goods, components, pharmaceuticals etc - for the whole world - until the UK negotiates with all the various international bodies to regain its certification rights

I'm sure the EU will work out some emergency waivers if there are any goods it still needs from the UK, but it will be have to be on a case by case basis and new emergency EU legislation issued by the Commision for each case.
This is a real pain for them legally and takes key manpower resources to work out, so they really will only do it for what they need

• they aren't allowed to just give waivers for all UK goods, or they fall foul of WTO and MFN clauses in all their non-EU trade deals.

I’m trying to think of some post Brexit walkers crisp flavours

Gammon and Soverignity
Unicorn with malt Treason