Westministenders: A LOOOONNNGGGGGGGG Hot Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has officially demoted Raab and the Brexit Department to just being responsible for practical implimentation in the UK and not negogitions.

This shouldn't be a surprise, its been the case in reality for some time, much to David Davis annoyance.

The official government position now seems to be scare the shit out of everyone about the possibility of No Deal in order to force the EU to make a deal. Jeremy Hunt has been dutifully spelling this out, by talking about an 'accidental' Brexit.

The government are already outsourcing responsibility for this potential eventuality to industy and business by telling them they need to stockpile food in order to keep supply lines going. This WILL mean price rises will start to happen soon. It also means there is no coordinated government plan and if businesses can't afford to do this as its heavily dependant on having sufficient cash flow in reserve to be able to do it, or don't want to, then you, me and everyone else is going to be well and truly on their own. Whilst the public are not being told to stockpile, its hard to justify not doing so, if this is the current government line.

The government has also done a u-turn on when the repeal of the European Communities Act will come into force. They fought hard to have it fixed for 29th March 2019. Thats now been rolled back to Dec 2020. This is fine, but in practice, makes no difference what so ever if we have no deal or the EU refuse to honour a transition deal on the terms the UK want. The ERG will also go nuts at it and try to get May to roll back on it.

Raab has also made a point of saying that if we don't have a deal by October (rather than midnight 29th March 2019) we are going into No Deal land by default.

Parliament has now broken up for the summer, with May surviving, so things are likely to be a little quieter for a few weeks, but come September this is all going to blow up with avengance.

If you think the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster, just wait for the Autumn.

One thing that jumps out about low information voters: their idea of "moderate" and "reasonable" is fairly unconnected to what's actually happening.

Errgh: I made the mistake of dipping into those threads that have been shunted into Brexit. There are still idiots going on about Y2K and nothing happened. It doesn't matter how many times we tell them that people worked to prevent it they won't listen. Then some saying it was all a con for people to make money. There is an element of truth about this: I got a well paid job as a result of Y2K work. You can't get it into their skulls that in that case we only had to trawl through code to look for dates. Much of this could be done by running automated scripts to see where the dates occurred and then fixing that code, or deciding that getting a new system was better. Brexit means unpicking hundreds of laws and agreements, half of which they haven't even thought of yet.

So I stopped reading those threads. I feel for Remainers who are worried sick about getting essential medicines, I feel a little sorry for Leavers who were conned into believing that they were voting for the NHS, if they can't get supplies. I have zero sympathy for the crowing leaver, get over it you lost, brigade. If they can't get their medication, well, that is what they voted for.

What exactly does the government view as adequate supplies?

I suspect they don't have beer, fags and baccy on the list. However, I bet we see a reaction if they become hard to come by. Possibly more so than the bulk of food stuffs.

In fact, based on my own attempts to quit smoking, I can imagine people getting Very Very Grumpy by the time April fourth or fifth rolls around.

I'm being slightly flippant, but I know when I was on my arse I'd buy baccy over food, and everyone I knew in the same situation would do the same.

adds Gold Leaf to stockpile list

< cuddles Lindt choc stack - no, I don't expect shortages in Germany, but I want to show solidarity with prepping Westministenders >

DH was laughing about me stockpiling today (Leo Varadkar has mentioned it for here in Ireland too). I had already said I'd get some of the things we use and prefer from Tesco and M&S, which seemed reasonable, but I said I'd be getting more due to possible supply disruption and trying to figure out what comes in from the UK as opposed to directly from Europe. There's very little info on this as far as I can figure out.

He smokes. When I mentioned tobacco he stopped laughing.

Finally, 3 weeks after quitting as Foreign Sec
Shameless squatter Boris Johnson appears to have accepted that “leave means leave”

Press Association reports removal vehicles have been spotted outside the magnificent grace and favour home he lived in as foreign secretary .. and has been allowed to continue to live in afterwards for some reason
‎

www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/30/post-brexit-scheme-for-eu-nationals-should-be-prototype-for-national-id-card-scheme-says-thinktank-politics-live

A senior EU official responded that Brussels had been “very kind to the white paper, given that it is a completely unworkable document”.
< sniggers >

proctor & gamble make always, tampax and pampers in hungary - better add those to the stockpile

Brexit section on The One Show about the possibility of a 2nd Ref. It has already mentioned that May is planning stockpiling and army on the streets!!!

Promising step forward for a deal !!

Ignore the twatty FT headline & angle trying to cover May's dignity with a figleaf:
Yes, Barnier eases opposition to this part of her plan .. but that's because
the UK made a BIG concession over the City of London

(FT paywall) https://www.ft.com/content/4dd41028-9328-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe

The EU’s chief negotiator has softened his opposition to Theresa May’s post-Brexit plan for London’s financial services industry
after UK negotiators acknowledged Brussels would have ultimate control over the City’s access to European markets.

London’s future as a global financial centre is tied to its ability to serve as a gateway to Europe for international banks,
and UK negotiators had originally hoped they would be able to secure a special arrangement with Brussels to retain access
even as Britain began to set up its own regulatory regime.
...
May’s model would see London treated like New York, Singapore and other “third country” financial centres by Brussels, which must certify that rival regulatory systems have “equivalence” with the EU rule book.

London now accepts that Brussels can ultimately decide whether UK financial services rules are equivalent to its own, with no further right of appeal

• a stance that in effect gives the EU veto power over some UK financial reforms if it wants to retain access to the European market.

May accepting 3rd country status for the City is a BIG step forward.
Finally she may understand that "Brexit means Brexit"

@cher as in Cher has tweeted on our side ' If I could turn back time' etc.

That sounds.... Hopeful.

I have said elsewhere that I wonder if the furore about trade of goods is not something of a red herring.

Maybe get the public frothing about trade of goods whilst they sort out the services - which are, of course, our biggest import and the thing that will really kill the economy.

Oh dear, just finished work and see all the brexit threads have been duly put back in their brexit box... It's hopeless, honestly.

Meanwhile, not brexit related but I'm curious if anyone else has noticed an increase in aggressive behaviours? I don't mean violent crime but nasty attitudes? Only today on my commute to and from work I've witnessed 2 nasty verbal assaults against women from seemingly 'regular' guys (ie not obviously drunk or high). I'm shocked (maybe it was just bad luck).

Yes quietrebel. I have noted and countered white English men being little shits to women in public, and more than usual especially, in last 6 months.

quietrebel. I like to think that some stuff might have got through.

Remember for everyone posting on a thread, there are potentially thousands of readers who are taking stuff in whilst not engaging on thread.

I like to think that there are plenty of those who voted leave who are not like the vocal aggressive leavers who have no willingness to engage or back anything up.

As well as plenty of people who voted remain just because they didn't feel qualified to go against the status quo.

I wonder if they had a box saying 'not particularly fussed right now' how many people would have ticked that box at that time.

Before brexit and the referendum talk, I don't think I knew anyone who had particularly strong feelings (or a particularly strong understanding) regarding our future in the EU.

The explosion in brexit threads is a positive thing. Despite mnhq, they are still getting bumped. The more people know about and are talking about brexit, the better. I think people are getting bored of slogans now.

Will it all be too little too late? Probably. But the must come a point where the will of the people comes to the people have changed their mind.

I am pleased to see all the Brexit threads under Active conversations, personally. It's about time people started talking seriously about what's actually coming, not what they hoped for when they voted.

Agree that accepting 3rd country status for the City sounds encouraging.

Also found the CapX article that Red posted previously interesting - I've been wondering why more people aren't talking about a unilateral waiver on import tariffs as a potential solution to import backlogs. What am I missing? Loss of revenue, obviously, but it seems a good way to buy time for a deal.

I was also interested in something that a previous poster mentioned around preparations underway in Rotterdam to reduce the risk of trade bypassing Rotterdam and going direct to Felixstowe. I understand preparations for increased capacity on freight from UK into Rotterdam but I'm not sure what preparations would be made to retain trade via Rotterdam rather than Felixstowe, and it sounds counter to the current narrative of problematic imports to UK.

Wrt the City: that's pretty major.

Good spot, BigChoc.

Re stockpiling beer and fags. The UK has a thriving beer production industry. Smaller breweries are particularly good at sourcing ingredients locally rather than importing.

As a rule, it'll be bigger breweries who have more problems as they are more likely to import large quantities of ingredients, as uk farmers can't supply the quantities required for mass market production of a singular known brand with a certain flavour, whereas whereas smaller brewers can adapt by having a 'limited edition' brew based on what they can source.

In other words if you are into Fosters or Stella, you are gonna have a harder time than hipsters with their poncy craft ales. And if your tipple is Guinness, just forget it. You're screwed.

Having said all that, the chances of a whiskey or gin shortage are much more remote. Though you might have trouble if you want a mixer with it.

Getting shit faced is probably not going to be an initial problem. I suppose if the food shortage is prolonged, alcohol has lots of calories in it...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-northern-ireland-45001905?__twitter_impression=true
Mother 'ordered to leave home by loyalist paramilitaries'

One thing which utterly infuriates me is the lack of planning. Even if the country had voted 100% in favour of Brexit, it would need to be planned for. Which ports will have the facility for phyto-sanitory checks, how quickly can we get an Open Skies agreement up and running and so on.

I read just now on facebook that one problem with having to import EU blood products is because Osborne sold the service off to an American firm, for a knock down price, who then duly sold it to China at a much greater profit. So British donors who give blood freely, thinking they are doing their bit for their fellow men and women are in fact providing wealthy Chinese with uncontaminated blood, which the said wealthy individuals pay for. How many people knew that? Are there no depths of venality to which the Tories will stoop? I will try to find the link again, but facebook has a way of showing you things and then they disappear.

Will wine be buggered, d'ya think?

Not much English wine on the shelves. Anyone tried home brew? I recall my grampy used to do it but stopped after a rather disastrous experiment with coffee wine.