Westministenders: A LOOOONNNGGGGGGGG Hot Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has officially demoted Raab and the Brexit Department to just being responsible for practical implimentation in the UK and not negogitions.

This shouldn't be a surprise, its been the case in reality for some time, much to David Davis annoyance.

The official government position now seems to be scare the shit out of everyone about the possibility of No Deal in order to force the EU to make a deal. Jeremy Hunt has been dutifully spelling this out, by talking about an 'accidental' Brexit.

The government are already outsourcing responsibility for this potential eventuality to industy and business by telling them they need to stockpile food in order to keep supply lines going. This WILL mean price rises will start to happen soon. It also means there is no coordinated government plan and if businesses can't afford to do this as its heavily dependant on having sufficient cash flow in reserve to be able to do it, or don't want to, then you, me and everyone else is going to be well and truly on their own. Whilst the public are not being told to stockpile, its hard to justify not doing so, if this is the current government line.

The government has also done a u-turn on when the repeal of the European Communities Act will come into force. They fought hard to have it fixed for 29th March 2019. Thats now been rolled back to Dec 2020. This is fine, but in practice, makes no difference what so ever if we have no deal or the EU refuse to honour a transition deal on the terms the UK want. The ERG will also go nuts at it and try to get May to roll back on it.

Raab has also made a point of saying that if we don't have a deal by October (rather than midnight 29th March 2019) we are going into No Deal land by default.

Parliament has now broken up for the summer, with May surviving, so things are likely to be a little quieter for a few weeks, but come September this is all going to blow up with avengance.

If you think the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster, just wait for the Autumn.

Yep, IWasn'tThere

In reality we have TWO big trade negotitions to sort out BEFORE we can even start to realistically think about new deals elsewhere.

The Brexit ones are getting the headlines (and even then very poor reporting in some media outlets) but there is very little about the parallel and necessary WTO ones.

They are in effect, both equally as important.

And we are doing both badly.

Is it "The UK" that becomes liable, or individual companies ?

Whatever happened to "sovereignty" ?

This brings us right back to why an orderly withdrawal and agreed transition period was really quite important, doesn't it? Because it would give us time to start the WTO and EU new relationship negotiations with some sort of past-life cover.

Instead we've decided to piss away any efforts to smooth the path. And for what? Jingoistic headlines?

The UK I believe DGR.

But I could be wrong.

Member states, I believe:

www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/disp1_e.htm

When I was looking on the WTO website yesterday I found the list of dispute proceedings currently underway involving EU, but I can't find it right this minute.

Pineapple, the point here is that EVEN IF you accept that the EU is indeed punishing us, we still need them on side for a transition so that we can sort out the WTO side of things.

No Brexiteer draws attention to the WTO countries objecting and says they are trying to punish us as well.

Brexiteer silence on the subject of the WTO terms and how things are coming along on that side is noticeable.

That's no surprise though, is it? They didn't expect anyone to pay attention to the WTO. After all, they haven't, so why would they expect us to?

Paul Mason @paulmasonnews
Thread on Sky's Brexit poll. 1/ 27% for No Deal is still the basis for a right-wing revolt if Chequers, Norway or Remain is the outcome... all parties need to use statecraft to prevent emergence of AfD-style movement...

2/ Sky poll suggests May is toast. Leadership challenge by 6 Sept or Tory conference becomes political carnage...

3/ 00ks of liberal-minded Conservatives have about 6 weeks to prevent their party becoming the no-deal Brexit party representing 27% (and falling) of the electorate ...

4/ As I said after the Chequers deal collapsed, Labour should now embrace Norway+ and offer a second referendum on the deal done: deal or Remain only on ballot paper

5/ 150 Labour CLPs debating 2nd Vote resolution - has to be discussed at Labour conference - front bench must take ownership of this new mood

6/ To be clear as I wrote here www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/07/election-norway-style-deal-and-second-referendum-how-labour-could-unite-country the sequence is: defeat May deal in Commons; force election & campaign on promise (not leaving open) a 2nd vote; negotiate Norway+ deal and put that deal vs Remain to a 2nd Referendum

7/ Once Tories fall, there will be no constitutional possibility of a No Deal Brexit unless their subsequent manifesto offers it, but that will have been why they fell in the first place, so they won't. Snap election places No Deal off the agenda

8/ ...hence No Deal cannot be on the 2nd Referendum ballot paper unless it is called by Tories themselves. Ponder that!

9/ And to summarise why my position is changed: collapse of Chequers deal leaves Tory hard Brexiteers in position of: "We tried, we failed". Electorate can see that, hence Sky poll finds moral authority of May. and positivity about Brexit, collapsing

10/ Finally my Tory chums. Try saying the words "stockpile food" to a mum hanging around the out-of-date shelf at Tesco at 5pm, waiting to see if she's going to feed her kids tonight. If it all goes to shit, that's the moral authority of your party gone for a generation. ENDS

Paul Mason, who was a lexiter

10/ Finally my Tory chums. Try saying the words "stockpile food" to a mum hanging around the out-of-date shelf at Tesco at 5pm, waiting to see if she's going to feed her kids tonight.

Only if said Mum votes. part of the reason we're here now is successive generations of people not voting, but whinging (which sounds like it should be hanging in the Tate).

DGR she won't be able to vote soon, when the voter ID trial goes national.

CapX @CapX
A one-sided free trade agreement: the simple alternative to a no-deal Brexit
[capx.co/a-simple-alternative-to-a-no-deal-brexit/
A simple alternative to a no-deal Brexit

Steve Peers @StevePeers
This idea is DOA under WTO law: free trade agreements have to abolish substantially all barriers to trade on both sides (as confirmed by WTO dispute settlement rulings on the previous EU banana trade rules).

Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
A suggestion. Why don't we find out what international trade rules actually say before making proposals on international trade?

Steve Peers @StevePeers
The total lack of interest in securing British exporters' access to their largest market is mind-boggling too.

DGR she won't be able to vote soon, when the voter ID trial goes national.

I wonder how many people will quietly lose their vote without realising.

link failed above
capx.co/a-simple-alternative-to-a-no-deal-brexit/

www.thesun.co.uk/money/6893471/crisp-shortage-in-britain-from-heatwave/
Cheese and onion crisps under threat after heatwave causes vegetable shortage

Walkers have already seen a poor potato yield and are preparing for a cheese shortage if there is a no-deal Brexit

CHEESE and onion crisps are under threat due to a looming shortage of the veg.

The heatwave could ruin the onion harvest in the latest blow to makers such as Walkers.

They have already seen a poor potato yield and are preparing for a cheese shortage if there is a no-deal Brexit.

It could force a halt to production of cheese and onion crisps, a British favourite.

Article also mentions that carrots, peas and ­lettuces have also suffered this year.

Article also mentions that carrots, peas and ­lettuces have also suffered this year.

So nothing serious then

Saw a comment elsewhere to the effect that "those French farmers won't pass up a chance to sell to the UK, so we'll be OK". Which was so spectacularly bollock-brained I didn't rise to it.

1. If history has told use anything, it's that French farmers are ... incroyable, and certainly not shy about making their feelings known.

2. Maybe, just maybe, the aim of French farmers is to feed ... the French. And frankly if they can combine that aim with simultaneously sticking deux doights up at les rosbifs, it would be Christmas come early for them.

3. Do we buy much French produce anyway ?

red
As I posted on other threads, there is currently NO country in the world that trades only on WTO terms

The previous ones - Mauritania, Cuba, Venezuela - have all fairly recently signed trade deals.

If pure WTO terms are such a good idea, why has every other country in the world chosen not to go that way ?

French farmers have also been experiencing a heat wave

BTW Red - you've just given me the biggest shock I'm not sure I'm ever going to recover......

.....there's real cheese and real onion in cheese & onion crisps????!!!! Who knew?!

.....there's real cheese shock and real onion shock in cheese & onion crisps????!!!!

I wonder if that was a subtle (?) Brexit-based advertising plug ?

I though crisp flavours were simply "will of the people marketing departments " assessment of what "flavour A" was ?

CHEESE and onion crisps are under threat due to a looming shortage of the veg

At last some good news

and anyway, I hate cheese & onion crisps

I luffs cheese (except the dreadful abominations that have added shit in them).

I hates onions.

So overall, it's a neutral situation ?

I love cheese - but don't like artificial flavours.