Westministenders: A LOOOONNNGGGGGGGG Hot Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has officially demoted Raab and the Brexit Department to just being responsible for practical implimentation in the UK and not negogitions.

This shouldn't be a surprise, its been the case in reality for some time, much to David Davis annoyance.

The official government position now seems to be scare the shit out of everyone about the possibility of No Deal in order to force the EU to make a deal. Jeremy Hunt has been dutifully spelling this out, by talking about an 'accidental' Brexit.

The government are already outsourcing responsibility for this potential eventuality to industy and business by telling them they need to stockpile food in order to keep supply lines going. This WILL mean price rises will start to happen soon. It also means there is no coordinated government plan and if businesses can't afford to do this as its heavily dependant on having sufficient cash flow in reserve to be able to do it, or don't want to, then you, me and everyone else is going to be well and truly on their own. Whilst the public are not being told to stockpile, its hard to justify not doing so, if this is the current government line.

The government has also done a u-turn on when the repeal of the European Communities Act will come into force. They fought hard to have it fixed for 29th March 2019. Thats now been rolled back to Dec 2020. This is fine, but in practice, makes no difference what so ever if we have no deal or the EU refuse to honour a transition deal on the terms the UK want. The ERG will also go nuts at it and try to get May to roll back on it.

Raab has also made a point of saying that if we don't have a deal by October (rather than midnight 29th March 2019) we are going into No Deal land by default.

Parliament has now broken up for the summer, with May surviving, so things are likely to be a little quieter for a few weeks, but come September this is all going to blow up with avengance.

If you think the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster, just wait for the Autumn.

The then Common Market was started to prevent another war between Germany and France, along with 4 iother countries, along with 4 iother countries to boost the available market and political support.

The main aims were to boost the available market and political support. by bringing the countries closer and tying together their main industries that produced war materials

• there have been 3 big wars between Germany & France, all of which dragged in other countries and the last 2 turning into World Wars which wrecked lives and prosperity in Europe for many years

The Common Market was formed during the Cold War, at the strong behest of the US & UK, when the West desperately needed an united front against the USSR.
An internal European conflict, even just a trade one, would have seriously weakened the West

• as it would now

I’m not really sure about the hysteria around an EU army. What do people think the Allied Forces were?

Churchill suggested France and Britain fight as one force in WWII, which the French rejected, but would have been much more effective militarily.

The UK and US fighting together has caused a lot of aggro and disagreement (within the military) as they are basically trying to unite two very different fighting styles. A more streamlined approach would be more effective.

However, I’m not convinced it’s possible politically (I don’t mean due to UK’s objection - just that it would be too hard to achieve even between countries who support the concept). So it’s a bit of a moot (much overblown) point.

Possible solution to the NI / RoI border conundrum ?

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/1027/915747-could-wto-could-help-avoid-hard-border-after-brexit/

“The former head of the World Trade Organisation, Pascal Lamy,
has suggested
Northern Ireland could become a member of the WTO in its own right,
as part of an effort to avoid physical borders on the island of Ireland after Brexit.

Mr Lamy said such a move would require Northern Ireland being given the powers to run its own autonomous customs policy
– separate to the rest of the UK –
and then choosing to mirror the EU customs regime.

He cited the examples of Hong Kong, Macau and China, which are all part of one country,
but which are all individual members of the WTO, operating different customs and trade regimes.”

However he described the idea of not having borders between the UK and the rest of the EU after Brexit as a "fairytale" and "impossible".
…
"there is no good solution (to Brexit), we only have a choice between bad solutions.
…
Mr Lamy said two timelines were needed – one to negotiate a deal, and another to ensure its smooth implementation.

"My guess is that this is five plus five – five for negotiations and five for implementation, starting from June 2016."

During Suez, it was even proposed that the Uk and France form a Union

Was it Churchill who said that if you have trade relationships with countries, you tend not to go to war with them?

I believe Churchill was very pro-Europe: a fact many Brexiters overlook.

I am going to be honest and say I never really understood the issue with an EU army, perhaps I didn't understand what it actually meant ? I mean we collaborate on so many other things that are related to national security , we already share some military stuff with the French don't we ?

Whenever it is mentioned , I just kind of think , so what ?

Me too. I’d go further even and say that I’ve always quite liked the idea. Stronger together & all that.

Also, re the Sky survey - is it very wrong of me to think it might be slightly skewed towards leaver views, given Sky’s customer base? Or am I making unfounded assumptions?

‘A United States of Europe’ was Churchill’s idea.

I am curious to know a little about the differences between US and UK fighting styles. Are our fighting styles more like the French then? I believe we cooperate a lot now anyway. Although it's a digression, in a way, it might help us understand the issues better. Politicians like Johnson, (who only announced his American citizenship when they came for some tax), Gove and Farage seem very keen on the USA, much more so than the general populace. Is it because of the lack of worker protection and a health service, and thus opportunities for them and their kind to make loads of money?

I think you're making unfounded assumptions.

We've started watching Sky News much more often (because it's on Freeview) because we've found it more challenging than the BBC, which rarely if ever asks difficult questions of the politicians and Brexit supporters spouting Cake-ism, Unicorn-ism or Ostrich-isn. An indictment of the state funded broadcaster

Yes, Sky News has actually been reporting on real things when it comes to Brexit. It's been a surprise to me.

I'd like to take a moment to say how much I'm enjoying the AIBU Brexit threads. There are some serious mental gymnastics going on over there, as Elements has pointed out a few times.

Did anyone see the post on one of those AIBU threads that alleged that the predecessor to the EEC was set up by the Nazis? That was a work of genius, fabulous trolling.

With the caveat that I have never fought in my life, based on reading about WWII and Iraq I’d say the Americans reputation for being gung ho, shoot first, ask questions later is entirely justified. The rank and file tend to have quite a simplistic grasp of the cultures of the countries they’re in - whether it be France and Germany or Iraq and Afghanistan - it’s all quite black and white - good guys/ bad guys.

However, Americans have found the British to be slow to adapt, inflexible, quite set in existing military routines and strategy and unwilling to change them on the hop if circumstance requires.

Another aspect is approach to torture of course. Although the British actually used more torture in WWII than is generally known.

The general threat from Russia has clarified how vulnerable European countries are. I think figuring out how to fight together if it came to it, or at least the dissuasive power of a united front is actually quite important.

mental gymnastics

It’s mental all right.

I think you're making unfounded assumptions.

Yeh, I did wonder. I agree that much of Sky News coverage is excellent. My comment related to Sky customers though, who were interviewed for the survey, not Sky News viewers. I’m probably prejudiced though. The Brexit debacle has brought out the nasty side of me

Tangentially related news today ...

Express and Mirror owners take £113 million hit

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45003639

(maybe less money in backing Leave than they thought )

Of more concern is India deciding 4,000,000 people aren't citizens

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-45002549

Which is probably going to keep Theresa May out of the public eye "for a little while" (and I bet she looks flushed when she finally reappears )

I wish I could read that story as a strike against the Express's editorial line, DGR. From the looks of it though, the Mirror has had the biggest fall percentage-wise, and the Express the least. From the tenor of the story, it does sound more like it's a result of the changing media landscape.

Which is why the microtargeting of disinformation is such an important story. If people need to triangulate their news from multiple (often free) sources, then a) the sources they choose are critical and b) paths into those sources need to be monitored. Disinformation into campaigning sites will keep influence secret until an election happens.

Is there a particular AIBU thread that we should look at? It's seems to be the usual mixture on there, I can't see any obvious, 'We are Leavers and Remainers are bullying us' ones.

I think that sky poll is precisely why there are so many leavers popping up on the other threads and disparaging any talk of issues after brexit. I expect some of them truly believe there will be no issues but I think others are a teensy bit nervous of a second ref. I think they know that it would be a close call if we had a 2nd ref and are determined to stop public pressure for one. I wouldn't like to say remain would win but I think it could go either way and we don't have anything to lose.

Calling people/women hysterical in an attempt to silence them and stop anyone taking them seriously is hardly new.

"Bullying" = correcting fake info in a Brexiter's post
"Punishment" = the EU accepting "Brexit is Brexit" and not letting the UK cherrypick what it wants

Peregrina there was the “terrified about stockpiling” thread and also a “stockpiling is hysterical” thread. The mental gymnastics and astroturfing from some unfamiliar names (really prolific, some posting day-and-night non-stop) are really obvious and it’s notable how goady and fighty they are (yes, worse than the past 2 years).

Fortunately (or unfortunately if you like car-crash-style spectator sports) some of the most notable posts got deleted.

Is there a particular AIBU thread that we should look at? It's seems to be the usual mixture on there, I can't see any obvious, 'We are Leavers and Remainers are bullying us' ones.

MN seems to have gone a tiny bit mad over the past few days. Enough that any pretence of having an editorial policy has been blown out of the water (Brexit threads everywhere. What happened to MNetters wanting them all kept out of sight, and MNHQ quickly hiding them here ?)

However, writ large, something less than solid appears to have hit something with angular momentum. Every forum I dabble in (tech, music, TV, law, engineering, science, homebrewing) seems to have lit up with posts and threads about Brexit. But not leave dominated. And every so often you can catch a slight unease in some leavers postings as it's clear they thought they overwhelmed Remain (as the post referendum chatter would have suggested).

Beware of a sudden leave embracing of a second referendum that will be as bad (if not worse) as the first, where the choice is "our way, or no way" and no mechanism for Remain. (In the same way the referendum on moving from FPTP was nobbled by offering AV not true PR).

Beware of a sudden leave embracing of a second referendum

I wouldn’t be surprised. It’s been part of their MO all along.

Re. the Sky data poll, the methodology says it’s a large nationally representative sample of Sky costumers, you can see the details are at the top of the tables here: interactive.news.sky.com/brexitshifttabs.pdf

I think it’s probably a good cross-section of the population, and they have very good contextual data to do the weighting (they know your income, address, age, programmes you watch, number of texts you send, etc.).

Thanks missmoon, I guess I was hoping that the shift towards remain might be understated in the results.

DGR you spoke too soon - the MNHQ clearout of Brexit threads on AIBU has started.