Westministenders: A LOOOONNNGGGGGGGG Hot Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has officially demoted Raab and the Brexit Department to just being responsible for practical implimentation in the UK and not negogitions.

This shouldn't be a surprise, its been the case in reality for some time, much to David Davis annoyance.

The official government position now seems to be scare the shit out of everyone about the possibility of No Deal in order to force the EU to make a deal. Jeremy Hunt has been dutifully spelling this out, by talking about an 'accidental' Brexit.

The government are already outsourcing responsibility for this potential eventuality to industy and business by telling them they need to stockpile food in order to keep supply lines going. This WILL mean price rises will start to happen soon. It also means there is no coordinated government plan and if businesses can't afford to do this as its heavily dependant on having sufficient cash flow in reserve to be able to do it, or don't want to, then you, me and everyone else is going to be well and truly on their own. Whilst the public are not being told to stockpile, its hard to justify not doing so, if this is the current government line.

The government has also done a u-turn on when the repeal of the European Communities Act will come into force. They fought hard to have it fixed for 29th March 2019. Thats now been rolled back to Dec 2020. This is fine, but in practice, makes no difference what so ever if we have no deal or the EU refuse to honour a transition deal on the terms the UK want. The ERG will also go nuts at it and try to get May to roll back on it.

Raab has also made a point of saying that if we don't have a deal by October (rather than midnight 29th March 2019) we are going into No Deal land by default.

Parliament has now broken up for the summer, with May surviving, so things are likely to be a little quieter for a few weeks, but come September this is all going to blow up with avengance.

If you think the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster, just wait for the Autumn.

Just spotted the Express headline + strapline on #tomorrow'spaperstoday on Twitter.

It's a corker.

'Brexit Food Fury'

Wait for it ...

... it's all the shopkeeper's fault for 'scaremongering' that they won't be able to manage this stockpiling lark.

Reminds me a little of Stalinist propaganda about 'wreckers' sabotaging production lines.

Wonder if we'll see the head of Sainsbury's dragged off to a gulag? Or perhaps just have his photo on the front of the Mail with 'Traitor!!!' As the heading.

It's a bizarre betrayal of the truth.

I'm so, so tired of all the lies. I feel like an epistemological foie gras goose: feet nailed to the floor and force-fed mendacity.

In other news, DeutscheBank have moved half their Euro clearing operation out of the City and to Europe.

I just try not to actually let it all hang out like an Eastenders Christmas Special. Like what's been going on with one of the new prolific Leavers on the AIBU thread - it's just like watching somebody chainsaw their own limbs off.

ROFLMAO!!!

Mrs8, you might notice my language has a habit of getting rather sweary.

Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford
Steve Baker, former Brexit minister: ‘I am deeply concerned that the communications strategy is discrediting no-deal in order to force Chequers through. It would be inexcusable to panic the public and markets to simply deliver an undesirable deal.’

Fuck off Steve. You quitter.

I'm not sure I can do more than one Far Right/Leaver thread at a time. I might lose my mind.

May have to ask you for a DM, ElementSong.

it's all the shopkeeper's fault for 'scaremongering' that they won't be able to manage this stockpiling lark.

It's another disgusting Leaver lie. But also it's clear evidence that the wheels aren't just falling off, they're exploding like fireworks in all directions. The contradictions and misrepresentations and obfuscations are tumbling out so thick and fast that it's harder and harder to hide.

From one day to the next, we're going from "even talking about shortages is hysterical scaremongering" to "preparing for stockpiling is totally sensible and a sign of our power" back to the "government aren't stockpiling just telling companies to stockpile therefore it's not actually stockpiling so don't talk about stockpiling" to "the government haven't actually said stockpiling just used words that mean stockpiling but definitely isn't that" and now to "companies who say they can't stockpile are traitors."

And just looking on MN alone, people are waking up.

Even the valiant efforts of the new posters is probably backfiring - they're effectively bumping all these threads they're desperately trying to shut down. Even if they could blanket every thread in naysaying, they're caught in their own trap. The Leave campaign benefitted hugely from the phenomenon where people come away remembering the original lie (Turkey is joining the EU, £350 million a week for the NHS, trade deals on day one, no downsides), even if it got repeatedly debunked.

Well, I suspect that also works when there are lots of threads popping up now, telling the truth about Brexit titled "Stockpiling for food shortages/lack of medicines/army called in" with concerned posters worrying about their children and families, people are going to at least get the idea that it's not going to go well and the seed has been planted however many "hysterical scaremongering" furious responses then appear.

Even the valiant efforts of the new posters is probably backfiring - they're effectively bumping all these threads they're desperately trying to shut down

Keep talking

Haven't found a leavers forum either where I can tolerate the other posters

Richard North's blog is good in a technocratic sort of way, but he is a racist, misogynist, climate change denier - as are many of his regular commenters. He comes over as thoroughly unpleasant when he engages with anyone he disagrees with.

He does however have extraordinarily broad and deep knowledge of trade and the EU, and probably the only genuinely workable plan for brexit.

Also the FT comments section is more considered than a lot of places.

At least Iwasntthere has had the courage to come on here with perfectly valid questions - ones I wish more Leavers asked. She (or he) also appears to be prepared to listen to the answers.

She had also thought through her reasons for voting leave. Although many of us on here might challenge strongly those reasons but at least they weren't based on policy areas that were actually WM's responsibility.

I do however agree that it is frustrating to be asked by a Leave voter, as a Remainer, for solutions that are solely down to the entirely predictable consequences of the Leave vote . Why the fuck should we be having to come up with solutions to problems that we had identified in advance and were pooh-poohed as them being "Project Fear"?

But as I say, at least Iwasntthere appears to be prepared to listen read, so should be welcomed - unlike certain posters on other threads who ask "clever" questions that they think will catch people out , refuse to accept the straight answers that demolish the original premise - and then resort to insults and ad hominem attacks

IWasn'tThere

a technological solution seemed feasible to me and it still does given time and development

I'm Irish and I live in Ireland so it's not my circus except for how it affects NI. You and the rest of the electorate should never have been put in the position of deciding whether or not this was the case.

Any border infrastructure at all is like waving a red flag at bulls. It may seem perfectly reasonable to you, and in most situations it would be, but you have no idea of the mentality.

It seems perfectly reasonable to me to have the CU/SM border around the island of Britain rather than on the island of Ireland but you know that would involve ignoring and trampling on the rights of people who are part of the UK and should have the right to move freely to and from all parts of the UK without any checks or borders and provoking them into further political and terrorist action to defend their position as UK citizens which they are already terrified of losing and have been for the last 100 years.

Luckily for both sides in NI there's an international treaty to protect the rights of those who identify as Irish and the rights of those that identify as British. The EU even gets a mention in there. Unfortunately the UK government seem to be losing focus on the only thing the EU actually cares about (apart from the other EU citizens in Britain).

You can't have a hard border in Ireland and you can't have a sea border... Or is it the case that once again the UK is going to inflict a border on the island of Ireland with no regard for its people? And with no regard for the international treaty known as the GFA. Perfidious Albion indeed.

If the big plan is to have FoM between the UK and Ireland to keep the border open I wonder how it will apply to EU citizens entering Ireland and driving to Belfast and getting on a boat... Passport checks leaving Belfast? The DUP won't like that. Entering Britain? The DUP won't like that either. No visas or passports or customs checks required?

Like you, I had concerns about an EU army. I also find it hard to accept that the EU seems to be like Hotel California. Though the 30 year leave campaigner linked to above seemed to think it was possible in a carefully planned way - though I didn't bother reading his solution to Ireland because it's like grief, there is no short term solution, only the passage of time.

The only solution to Ireland is the status quo. It's literally a death trap.

So ... all those Brexiteers urging No Deal (IDS, Redwood, Bone, Rees-Mogg) are starting to find that it might just be a teensy bit toxic for Joe Public.

Maybe I'm naive but ... I would think leading the UK to the point of food shortages and medicine shortages and having to have such items helicoptered in by the army will leave the tory party a bit more unpopular than they were during the sleaze scandals of the 90s.

Once again the mps showing just how poor they are at estimating how difficult things will be for them.

I'm still not convinced by the "NATO kept the peace not the EU" type of arguments. If the Americans hadn't been so hysterically anti-Communist would the Cold War have happened in the way it did? Would the E European countries have enjoyed more freedom? Much of the hostility towards the EU has come from the accession of the Eastern European countries, which the UK in particular encouraged, no doubt egged on by the Americans, as a two fingered gesture to the Russians. Of course, Tony Blair then went and botched things by not having a stay on how many people could come here, as the other EU countries did. I can't help but feel that many Poles would just as happily have tried their luck in Germany if they had been able to rather than come to the UK.

It is just not black and white, and I might be talking rubbish, because it's the middle of the night and I can't sleep.

As for the £350 million for the NHS and Turkey joining the EU, these are now coming back to bite the Leavers. The Tories were asked on the doorsteps at the last election, 'where is the money for the NHS we were promised', which didn't help their electoral cause. As for Turkey, this lie has helped to tag the Leavers as racist xenophobes, ably assisted by the Tories at their 2016 Conference. It doesn't matter that a majority of Leavers may well not be, on these threads sooner or later a Leaver bobs up to say "it's all about immigration", thus spoiling the moderate Leavers arguments.

I was just reading this update on the EU citizen registration scheme which looks certain to apply after the transition period.

Did the gov commission this Policy Exchange report? It says the scheme should be rolled out to Britons on an initial voluntary basis.

Quotes below..I know we've discussed I'd cards before. I have that knee jerk feeling I wouldn't volunteer for an identity card, but I do wonder if TM hadn't abolished the proposed I'd system could the referendum have been averted?

We know one of the key drivers for the result of the ref (and subsequent willingness to endure rationing, stockpiling and deployment of our tiny army) is xenophobia. There is layers of confusion or bigotry surrounding illegal migration and refugees -and falsely attributing both those things to EU membership.

If May hadn't abolished the identity card system then the electorate would have been able to distinguish illegal and EU migration.There would have been visible evidence for the balance of switching UKIP type voters.

But then actually evidence of a system probably would not have made a difference. We have seen that the pulling up the drawbridge fiction is an emotional thing, and facts and evidence don't help anyway.

"In the report, David Goodhart, Policy Exchange's head of demography, immigration and integration, said: "We strongly recommend reopening the debate about ID management to reassure people that we know who is in the country, for how long, and what their entitlements are."

"It said a "proper national ID system" would have "prevented the harassment of the Windrush victims"."

"A £5bn national identity card scheme was introduced by the Labour government in 2006, but Theresa May abolished it when she became home secretary in 2010."

Call for UK citizen ID system after Brexit www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45001916

news.sky.com/story/public-opinion-is-shifting-sharply-against-brexit-sky-data-poll-reveals-11453220

Thanks frumpety that Sky poll is interesting. And mainly encouraging.

This bit worries me though... it's why I worry about another vote. Still many people who like the idea of no deal.

The public by 50% to 40% support a referendum asking the public to choose between leaving the EU with the deal suggested by the government, leaving the EU without a deal, and not leaving the EU - 10% answered don't know.
Asked to choose between those options, not leaving the EU would be the preferred option for 48%, with 27% preferring to leave the EU with no deal, and 13% choosing the government deal - 8% say they would not vote, 3% don't know.
Leave voters would prefer no deal to the government deal by 51% to 22%, and Conservative voters would prefer no deal to the government deal by 44% to 21%.

Although in a second round, there'd be a move back towards the status quo and safety of remaining:

Were a referendum to take place asking for second preferences, in the final round remaining in the EU would have a clear lead over no deal Brexit by 59% to 41%, excluding those answering don't know and those who would not vote.

Times have moved on now, and at one time we hardly ever needed to produce any ID, but now we have to mess around producing passports and driving licences or something with your address on and it's all a big faff. Something with name, address, photo, signature would be sufficient.

The problem with Blair's Identity card proposals as I recall was that it was going to be over-elaborate and expensive. It ought to be possible to introduce a simpler scheme like the bus pass one, where you fill in a simple form with a local authority and send in a photo.

Would I apply for one? It would depend, on how simple it was, and how costly for a starter.

The thing with ID card is that it’s not just abiut maybe avoiding the referendum.
It’s also that it’s a very easy way to actually check who is in the country legally and who isn’t.
Take the windrush people. British citizens but could easily be illegal immigrants. How can someone know for sure that those people are or not legally in the country? No passport, no piece of Id, maybe a driving licence that says nothing about your citizenship. This makes illegal immigration impossible to check. Or you end up putting a lot of pressure on totally legal migrants (or even citizens of the country) and make them live in a state of fear because they wont have that piece of paper proving they are here legally (btw that’s the ONE big issue I have with the settled status - the fact that we will not get a piece of paper to prove we are legally staying here, only a small line in a database. Very very unreliable imo).

I'm still not convinced by the "NATO kept the peace not the EU" type of arguments
Well I have anothervreally big issue with that argument.
Trump is basically trying to dismantle NATO! Wo NATO and wo the EU, who would be keeping said peace exactly?

I am going to be honest and say I never really understood the issue with an EU army, perhaps I didn't understand what it actually meant ? I mean we collaborate on so many other things that are related to national security , we already share some military stuff with the French don't we ?

Whenever it is mentioned , I just kind of think , so what ?

Trump has ripped up all the rules - he's not promoting a cold War, he's trying to become best mates with Putin. So now we can't rely on NATO, even if we did before. It's always difficult though to prove why something didn't happen (i.e. war) and no doubt it's a combination of factors, but I would certainly argue that the EEC/EU helped to keep Europe peaceful.

Darran Marshall @ darranmarshall
Taoiseach admits Ireland is stockpiling drugs & making “contingency plans” to ensure access to medicines in event of ‘no deal’ #brexit

Makes me so angry that other countries are being forced to spend their tax payers money mitigating against Brexit. Even if the UK stopped Brexit now I imagine other EU countries would be mightily pissed.

Frumpety

NATO is dominated/led by the Americans. With the UK a close second. An EU army would have the French/Germans/UK vying for leadership. And that is the problem, happy to be US poodle, but not play second fiddle to the French (Waterloo etc) or Germany ( 2 world wars and ...).