Westministenders: A LOOOONNNGGGGGGGG Hot Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has officially demoted Raab and the Brexit Department to just being responsible for practical implimentation in the UK and not negogitions.

This shouldn't be a surprise, its been the case in reality for some time, much to David Davis annoyance.

The official government position now seems to be scare the shit out of everyone about the possibility of No Deal in order to force the EU to make a deal. Jeremy Hunt has been dutifully spelling this out, by talking about an 'accidental' Brexit.

The government are already outsourcing responsibility for this potential eventuality to industy and business by telling them they need to stockpile food in order to keep supply lines going. This WILL mean price rises will start to happen soon. It also means there is no coordinated government plan and if businesses can't afford to do this as its heavily dependant on having sufficient cash flow in reserve to be able to do it, or don't want to, then you, me and everyone else is going to be well and truly on their own. Whilst the public are not being told to stockpile, its hard to justify not doing so, if this is the current government line.

The government has also done a u-turn on when the repeal of the European Communities Act will come into force. They fought hard to have it fixed for 29th March 2019. Thats now been rolled back to Dec 2020. This is fine, but in practice, makes no difference what so ever if we have no deal or the EU refuse to honour a transition deal on the terms the UK want. The ERG will also go nuts at it and try to get May to roll back on it.

Raab has also made a point of saying that if we don't have a deal by October (rather than midnight 29th March 2019) we are going into No Deal land by default.

Parliament has now broken up for the summer, with May surviving, so things are likely to be a little quieter for a few weeks, but come September this is all going to blow up with avengance.

If you think the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster, just wait for the Autumn.

Hoey seems to be voting the straight rightwing Tory spiv ticket
No need for a byelection: an MP can stay on as an Independent, or even switch parties if they want, which she might do.

Being deselected just means she can't stand as a Labour candidate next GE
Unless the Labour Leadership remove the whip from her, she can even stay as a (pretend) LAbour MP until the GE

Moderate /soft left traditional Labour MPs rebel against some of Corbyn's actions, but they do not support the Tories, despite the slurs against them by some Momentum supporters.

Corbyn's current economic policies are failry classic Old Labour
but if a Brexit Armegeddon sweeps him to power and Tories are knocked out for 20+ years, or permanently,
then I expect to see some pretty hard left Bennite policies.

I'm waiting eagerly to see if the whip is withdrawn ...

In other news, our CLP was another of the growing number to pass a motion calling for a People's Vote and for that to go to the NEC.

So the struggle within the Labour Party continues ...

Big difference from a party loyalty pov Corbyn vs Hoey:

Corbyn's rebellions were never supporting Tory polcies instead of Labour ones
He never helped keep a Tory govt in office - and Labour out - by enabling Tory legislation

Sorry - I don't know Quietrebel - dh saw it on Twitter.

In other news, has everyone been following the release of the Facebook 'dark' adverts.

It's in Carole Cadwallada's timeline - I'm sorry, I can't really link, I'm on my phone and I just don't have the stamina.

There's so much to say Bout it: the data harvesting; who they targeted (eg young men who didn't vote, for example); how they collected it; the cynicism of the ads; the illegal practices; the lies - but mostly the complete lack of visibility.

The BBC are beginning to cover it. But it just emphasises - to me - the silence of the last year. 🙁

BBC headlines say "May to visit Austria in Brexit talks"

Which suggests she either didn't know Barnier said it's a waste of time. Or she just had to find out for herself.

Rather like May and her party tolerating Tory Ultra rebeelions - in fact giving in to them - but the few Remainer MPs who rebel are regarded as traitors - with horrific online threats of violence - and they face deselection too

A party will tolerate its Ultras, but not those who vote with the other party

Good summation BigChoc.

If whip withdrawn, she'll go at next GE. It's being on the Labour ticket that gets her returned in Vauxhall.

It seems at least an annual event:
May and her govt trying to go over the head of Barnier to the EU heads of govt
... apparently not believing that they gave him his negotiating remit and he frequently consults and reports back on progress - well, lack of it, mostly

I thought May was visiting Austria for some other jolly but might fit in Brexit talks as a sideline.

If de-selected, Hoey cannot stand as Labout, either
unless the NEC over-rule the local party, which is unlikely for an MP that keeps voting Tory

May is using all the usual events when EU leaders & ministers are present, even non-EU meetings,
to try to talk directly to the member govts.

It clearly irritates many countries, including France & Germany

Here we are cat, the link to Carole Cadwalladr and the targeted Vote Leave ads. It's shocking.

mobile.twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1022596449207574528

I think that is the real reason for the Corbyn stance on Brexit. To institute a Bennite programme, Corbyn's faction needs a decimated Opposition. Only a disastrous Brexit will do that.

The whole 'the EU will prevent implementation of our - current - programme' is a nonsense.

But my feeling is that Corbyn's crew are gambling. I'm not sure a Chaos/Disaster Brexit will deliver a generation of Labour/Bennite governments. I think it's equally likely we'll get something quite scary.

And I'm not sure the destruction of governmdnt (through the destruction of a major Opposition party) is a great idea anyway. I
Even thoug it's the bloody Conservatives, it's still quite an alarming project. 😳

Hester Thank you. 🙂 I'm struggling even with bolting today. 🙂

Hope you feel stronger soon Cat.

Though this won't help!

More shock at dishonour. It seems Vote Leave posted those ads in the period after Jo Cox's murder when campaigning was supposed to be suspended. Could they not have been cancelled?

mobile.twitter.com/veritasta/status/1022752615447375872

It is worrying....a political vacuum is never a good thing.

However, if May survives past March 2019 she will be swiftly dispatched after, I imagine. If when brexit is a disaster, I'd be hopeful of most of the ERG wanting to keep a low profile... I can imagine the tory party will want to get rid of anyone who can be said to be responsible for the way brexit has turned out (even though its the whole damn lot of them).

I would expect to see a totally rebranded tory party (New Conservatives? Tory Lite?) around 2024 at the latest.

I'm quite amazed at how ineffectual Labour has been as the opposition. JC doesn't seem to have made much attempt at capitalising on his cult like status with the younger lot. By the time the next election roles around, I don't know if he can do the same again.

I'm quite amazed at how ineffectual Labour has been as the opposition.

I remember the 80s ....

May in Austria... if I'm not mistaken the nationalist FPÖ is part of a governing coalition. I wonder if it's part of a strategy to get the more right wing nationalist governed countries on side (Poland, Hungary, Austria)

Much worse than the 1980s, imo:

Michael Foot had all-round talent and was a clever Parliamentarian; he was soft left
he didn't have a murky past with very dodgy friends.

However, his policies didn't match what most of the public wanted:
unilateral nuclear disarmament and leaving the then EEC (btw that indeed gave us a vote after the 1st ref on Remaining)

He also didn't have a possible Brexit economic Armegeddon that could make desperate voters take that leap

His "Fortress Britain" sounded similar to where Corbyn is going in his policies,
but better articulated and without jumping on the anti-immigration bandwagon.

Elsewhere on the BBC (with no irony)

"The Story of how Curry Conquered Britain"

Austria have just assumed the presidency of the European Council. I suspect that's why May has toddled off there.

Looking forward to all the vote leave politicians like Gisela Stewart continuing to claim that the electoral commission is biased and let's see if it comes to any thing. Although she tried that in Jo Coburn the other day and Jo turned round and pointed out that vote leave had broken the law, that there were no ifs or buts about it.

That ‘far right’ thread on AIBU

I am stunned by the tone of the (seems to me at least) majority. As Ron Weasley would say, bloody hell! Is this really how people think or is it full of trolls? Great job over there Thecat.

Yes Susan and iirc Gisela Stuart has a law degree and should be intensely interested in correct legal processes being carried out.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gisela_Stuart

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
This year’s Tory Brexit “argument of the Summer”:
If Parliament rejects Brexit Deal or none agreed:

We’ll need a General Election - it’s only way to avoid another referendum

Vs

We’ll need a referendum - it’s only way to avoid another General Election.

Supporters of GE to avoid referendum, believe it will do what they had planned in 2017 properly “elect a Brexit Government etc”, with proper manifesto, majority - but ominous for PM. Plus for Tories - new boundaries due to be published in September

Supporters of a referendum to avoid a GE point out that Conservative 2017 script failed spectacularly, lost English/ Welsh seats, only saved by Davidson, and a GE will effectively be a referendum anyway, just one that risks 4 years in Government...

Although I’m reminded of Gandhi’s gambit to try to avoid Civil War by accepting partition, and ending up with both...