Westministenders: A LOOOONNNGGGGGGGG Hot Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has officially demoted Raab and the Brexit Department to just being responsible for practical implimentation in the UK and not negogitions.

This shouldn't be a surprise, its been the case in reality for some time, much to David Davis annoyance.

The official government position now seems to be scare the shit out of everyone about the possibility of No Deal in order to force the EU to make a deal. Jeremy Hunt has been dutifully spelling this out, by talking about an 'accidental' Brexit.

The government are already outsourcing responsibility for this potential eventuality to industy and business by telling them they need to stockpile food in order to keep supply lines going. This WILL mean price rises will start to happen soon. It also means there is no coordinated government plan and if businesses can't afford to do this as its heavily dependant on having sufficient cash flow in reserve to be able to do it, or don't want to, then you, me and everyone else is going to be well and truly on their own. Whilst the public are not being told to stockpile, its hard to justify not doing so, if this is the current government line.

The government has also done a u-turn on when the repeal of the European Communities Act will come into force. They fought hard to have it fixed for 29th March 2019. Thats now been rolled back to Dec 2020. This is fine, but in practice, makes no difference what so ever if we have no deal or the EU refuse to honour a transition deal on the terms the UK want. The ERG will also go nuts at it and try to get May to roll back on it.

Raab has also made a point of saying that if we don't have a deal by October (rather than midnight 29th March 2019) we are going into No Deal land by default.

Parliament has now broken up for the summer, with May surviving, so things are likely to be a little quieter for a few weeks, but come September this is all going to blow up with avengance.

If you think the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster, just wait for the Autumn.

I think the only way they have out of it is a second referendum between remaining in the EU or hard brexit.

I just cannot see how the EU will accept any preferential trade deal or 'frictionless border' without FOM.

They can talk about negotiations all they want but at the end of the day the EU have been very clear that they will not be going against their founding principles.

And I think people have twigged that there is a risk of pretty much still being in the EU without having any voice in Europe - which will please neither leaders or remainers, but might well prevent economic disaster - and I suspect will be the only sort of deal that the EU will accept.

Last general election resolved fuck all as both the main parties were wishy washy or just totally unrealistic about what brexit actually meant. And of course, was pretty disastrous for the tories.

Clash The UK could get most of what it wants from a Norway+ deal,
where the "+" is customising for the UK's services, manufacturing, farming etc

These negotiations would require a transition deal, might need to be longer than until Dec 2020, especially going by current progress.

1. An EEA/ EFTA kind of deal would only mean accepting about 25% of the EU acquis
   and of that, a lot is simply passed down from the UN / international regs, so the Uk would have to follow those even oin the event of no-deal.

2. RNorth refers to Article 112 for EFTA, which allows countries to stop immigration if required for significant economic / political / social reasons - he thinks the UK situation qualifies for this and it could readily be used

3. EFTA has its own court, not the ECJ. When EFTA members have a dispute with EU members, judges from both courts combine

4. EFTA countries have their own common FTAs and deals with non-EEA countries; also, individual countries can negotiate their own individual deals

5. Norway & the other EFTA countries are consulted beforehand about EU legislation. They don't have a veto or even a formal vote, but they do have influence.
   In the end, they can choose whether they accept new laws

6. The NI border would fairly easily be fixed by adding a customs agreement to the "+"

BUT
the hedge-funders and disaster capitalists won't get their loot and the Tory Unionist fanatics - e.g. Gove - won't be able to smash the GFA
Unfortunately these extremists and spivs control the Tory Party atm

I agree with you, ^BigChoc and I think that's the message that keeps on coming from EU negotiators.

Sadly, I'm not sure it's filtering through to the general pppulstion in the UK. 😕

cat Sorry to hear you are feeling poorly
Are you still waiting for the next stage of treatment ?

The UK could get most of what it wants from a Norway+ deal,

Er, guys, just to throw a spanner in the works, there's the tiniest little wrinkle in that statement.

The UK is definitely NOT Norway.

By that I mean that the UKs entrenched ways of doing things are probably so far from Norways that we'd be like a completely different country.

Besides, isn't the Brexit mantra to "Be British", not "ape Norway" ?

Richard Corbett @ RCorbettMEP
Delighted that my own #Labour party local branch in Shipley adopted this resolution on #Brexit last night

Belated place marking

www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/27/this-is-what-no-deal-brexit-actually-looks-like
This is what no-deal Brexit actually looks like

From the magnificent Ian Dunt

This sounds insane. After all, British food was OK to enter Europe with minimal checks on March 29th, so why not on March 30? Nothing has changed.

The reason is that food is potentially very dangerous, so we have strict systems in place for it. Imagine that right now someone is eating a burger made from the meat of a cow with a neurodegenerative disease, like BSE. This is what happened in Britain in the late-80s and led to the deaths of 177 people. Tomorrow's tabloid front pages will ask certain very important questions. Where did the meat come from? Was it produced domestically or imported? Who was responsible for its production, transport and storage? The people responsible will be hauled in front of cameras and Commons select committees. Ministers will have to give statements to parliament. The press will demand that heads roll.

The BSE outbreak almost brought down the government. That's how severe these threats are. And there are plenty more around, including foot and mouth, avian flu, and African swine fever, plus those that do not exist yet.

Ah thanks for the info on Norway plus - I had it in mind that we would need to unilaterally accept freedom of movement for it to succeed.

That's made me feel slightly more optimistical.

Oho, Momentum won't just tolerate deslection of the Brexit Gang of Four, but are actually calling for it.
"Senior Labour figures" i.e. McDonnel and hence probably Corbyn, are also fed up with them voting with the Tories:

Momentum leader calls for deselection of MPs who voted with Tories

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/18/momentum-leader-calls-deselection-mps-who-voted-with-tories-brexit-trade-bill

Momentum’s national coordinator has in effect called for the deselection of four Labour MPs who voted with the Conservatives on a Brexit amendment ,
arguing there was “no room” for them in the party.

Laura Parker, the leader of the pro-Corbyn pressure group, accused Kate Hoey, Frank Field, John Mann and Graham Stringer of having “stood in our way” as Labour tried to bring down the government in a vote on the trade bill that was won with a majority of six on Tuesday night.

Parker said their actions were a “betrayal of millions of Labour voters” and added:
“Labour is once again a socialist party that works for the many, not the few and there is no room for Labour MPs who side with the reactionary Tory establishment.”
...
Senior Labour figures are understood to be exasperated by the four, who consistently vote with the government on Brexit.

At one point while voting was taking place after the debate, the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, spoke to Hoey, Field and Stringer in the Commons chamber.
The attempt to change their minds proved fruitless.
One of the MPs is understood to have told McDonnell that the Conservatives would tear themselves apart over Brexit anyway and that their actions did not matter.
< sounds like Fields or Skinner >

DG The UK is a far larger and more complex economy than Norway, which is why we have to add the "+" for Norway+
However, the biggest obstacle is that it would mostly stop the spivs looting and profiteering post-Brexit
and the hard right who want to complete rolling back the Welfare Staste.

Also, of course, those who want Empire 2.0 won't find any EFTA countries accept being part of that.

UK exports of all kinds won't be acceptable without a deal
because frictionless borders are only possible with common binding laws and internal checks on these goods, at all stages withing the supply chain.
Above all, they are only allowed by WTO rules because the UK is part of the EU, with signed treaties.

Non-EU countries may also put up barriers to UK imports, for similar reasons.
Then there are manufactured goods, planes, airports etc that require certification, but the UK loses itd internationasl recognition

Buyers won't accept the risks, insurers will refuse to insure undertified goods ...

Excuse typos blinding sunshine and 37C means I'm blinking & dripping onto the keyboard

UK exports of all kinds won't be acceptable without a deal

Probably traitorous to mention it, but there's also the fact that the UK (possibly assuming Brexit had already happened, the rest of the world is certainly less than impressed by the level of intelligence the UK is displaying. Or not displaying) is already on the naughty step having been caught in flagrante delicto breaking EU data protection laws as well as illegally allowing Chinese imports in.

Even if the various Brexit negotiators hadn't queered the pitch by trying to backtrack on signed agreements, there's no way any Brexit will ever allow the UK to go without close scrutiny. That the UK will be paying for, and that will have to be factored into the cost of exporting to the EU.

Well the Independent petition is doing well. It's currently got a fifth the number of people that wanted Jeremy Clarkson reinstated on the BBC.

Which is it's own statement on political engagement in the UK.

BSE went on for much longer than the 80s too. I worked for MAFF, now DEFRA, in 2000 and there was still a BSE department, slaughtered cows spinal cord and brain had to be checked at the abbatoir, animals were still being killed if they were even suspected of having BSE.

We could trace a cow from farm to farm to abbatoir. It's what makes our meat so safe. Any suggestion that an animal had been exposed to a disease and it could be traced and isolated, along with any other animals it had been in contact with.

Differences in how refugees feel/are treated between Scotland and England

http://thenational.scot/news/16380977.refugees-receive-better-support-in-scotland-than-in-england/

@EmmaKennedy is going through the DCMS report. It's shocking.

Two things:

1. I hate to bash the BBC but ... this is huge and really there is a whole story - clear and irrefutable now - here about how they failed to investigate this. It is HUGE. The DCMS report makes it pretty clear that this was a massive peacetime attack/subversion of democratic political process.

They didn't investigate it.

Care Cadwallada was treated like s fringe conspiracy theorist.

It really is a tragedy for the BBC. A timorousness that verges on venal self-interest and, ultimately, enabled this destabilisation to continue its effects for all this time

1. NOW would be the moment to start talking about a second referendum, with A50 being triggered (or not) after that. In the light of this report, the decision to act so hastily on the outcome of the referendum, without any commissions established to do research (on planning; on investigating the campaigns) seems unconscionable in the light of this. ☹️

@EmmaKennedy

Twitter

27/07/2018. 17:44

(Reading the DCMS report)

'Absolutely damning on Banks and Wigmore

“Mr Wigmore is a self confessed liar and as a result little significance can be attached to anything that he says”

Also suggesting they were being used by Kremlin to destabilise European politics. Holy hell'

My dh wrote a load of songs to fight this stupid Brexit under the banner of Rage Against The Brexit Machine. On Youtube and iTunes itunes.apple.com/gb/artist/rage-against-the-brexit-machine/id1279874387

If the referendum is to be a re-run, I would only support it if opinion massively shifted, to at least 60:40 for Remain and rising.
Otherwise, the political fallout of a narrow win for Remain could be as bad as any economic recession .

It would also be very harmful to the EU, to have an angry, humiliated UK back and to have to put up with both Tory and Labout govts forever being Eurosceptic.

If the referendum is Remain vs no-deal, or anything else vs no-deal, I would be very worried

• judging by current polls - that no-deal could win and Parliament would feel obliged to carry out no-deal.

imo, any decision to Remain, or to have any sort of deal, needs to be made by the govt, preferably backed up by a large vote inParliament

Unfortunately, what is looking most likely atm is a no-deal crashout
and then hopefully whatever govt is then in power frantically agreeing to a Norway+ type deal, as put on the table by Barnier.

The UK may well be in a fit state to rejoin in 20 years time, but there would have to be a total attitude change from the public first,
or the UK would be a permanent source of instability for the EU.

To enable any rejoin after Brexit, we must make sure that the blame is kept firmly pinned on the Uk govt, where it belongs for their totally irresponsible prioritising of Tory party unity before the country.
This will be a tough struggle, because the rightwing media will go all out to deflect blame on the EU and whip up anti-EU hysteria, to divert blame for the catastrophe our own govt caused us.

Of course, there is still a chance sanity will prevail - after the Tory party conference ?

The problem is that almost no Leavers believe any of Cadwallada's reports, probably never bothered to read them.
The country is totally paralysed because of the Year Zero mindset and sense of victimhood that the hard right have managed to stir up and mobilise in half the country

I think if sanity were to prevail, it would have already...

Great work by your DH, Alison

We should continue campaigning,
but also prep for a no-deal Brexit and keep hammering it home, if that happens, whose fault this whole mess is

• and prep for campaigning for an emergency Norway+ deal afterwards