Westministenders: May's Turd Way covered in Donald's Glittery Tickertape from his Parade

[RedToothBrush]

Where next?

Auditions for chief turd polisher to Mrs May are in full action, whilst those who don't believe in the turd, wade about knee deep in their own shit, still searching for that illusive plan for Brexit which doesn't stink to high heaven of crap.

After the dual resignation of Davis and Johnson, amongst the stench there is an air of uncertainity and expectation of all hell breaking loose.

In the last 48 hours we have been told that

1. May is more secure having crushed the brexiteers,
2. May about to be ousted by a no confidence vote, triggering a leadership election,
3. The Tory Party are about to split,
4. Brexiteers are in disarray fighting amongst themselves,
5. We will remain in the EU,
6. We get an EEA deal,
7. We will get no deal,
8. A People's vote is inevitable and
9. There will be a General Election.

Which only serves to merely highlight just how little of a clue ANYONE has about what happens next.

What bothers me now, is that Johnson seems not to have surfaced yet and there are rumours that Gove has gone to ground, whilst Donald Trump is practically on the plane and is stirring the pot praising Johnson.

Instead we seem to have a series of junior ministers and Tory HQ figures quitting in a long drawn out coordinated toy throwing out of the pram exercise, to try and get what hard brexiteers want.

If I had to hazard a guess at the general silence from key figures, I might be tempted to say that someone is going to use Trump's visit to throw a political grenade and actively invite him to endorse them.

That might sound ridiculous given that the public hates Trump, but that loses sight of the fact that the people who will vote for the next leader of the Tory Party are overwhelming authoritarian leaning and likely to be those who like Trump and would be impressed by such a move.

I note this tweet today from the wise Sarah Kendzior:

Sarah Kendzior @sarahkendzior
"There are parallels to past authoritarianism, but what's happening with Trump, in the digital age, is new and transnational. The president's loyalty is not necessarily to a state but to foreign leaders and multinational criminal alliances. The state is just something to sell."

It is clear that others in the parliamentary party will be very alarmed at the prospect. There were Tory MPs who were openly tweeted how please that disgusting Johnson had gone and are no fans of Trump.

May still seems to think that she can get her plan through and approved by the EU in its current form. The White Paper is due on Thursday.

Much speculation is that it will be significant if she fails to produce this on time, as she will have capitulated to the Brexiteers. And this will lead to the EU just giving up on us anyway.

She also announced to the Cabinet today, that preparations for No Deal were to be stepped up significantly.

We still are left wondering who, she is stitching up; the Brexiteers whose heads are currently exploding or the friends she keeps closest to her (friends? or ideological enemies).

The problem is that there just no other viable way forward at the moment, as the country is divided, both Labour and the Conservatives are divided and are more interested in their own future than that of the party and there are far too many ambitious 'celebrity MPs' who want to make their mark. No one gives a shit about ordinary workers or business. Plus there is the divine observation that DGRossetti made at the end of the last thread: The biggest obstacle to Brexit has been Brexiteers

The grab for post-Brexit power shows the whole of Westminister up as the cess pit of self interest it is, with Boris Johnson merely its biggest figure head.

Wait until the GFA officially has its head put on the chopping block awaiting its fate. Perhaps we can flog NI to Donald and get a Brexit Dividend afterall.

I must admit to finding it hard to have a view that is altogether different to this:
James Patrick @J_amesp
There is no way back from all of this. The next seven days simply decide how badly - on a scale of fucked to smouldering crater - it is going to end.

One final predictation, which I am DAMN certain of: Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday are all going to be grim for political watching if you are into democratic values and principles. It will be a 4 day sales pitch for Brand Trump in all its All American Overblown Horror that Brits tend to find utterly distasteful. Expect the red carpet of full of turd glitter to be rolled out for Donald Trump Show. Expect May to embarass herself in her fawning all over him, as if she's star struck. Expect that hideously cringeworthy photo thats totally inevitable.

Politics is going to get worse. It may never get better.

(But yay football gets to cover it all up... Come on England!)

I'll set the new ( more accurate) questions:

Do you want to sacrifice unrestricted access to 500 million consumers and our position as the fifth strongest economy in the world? Or

Do you want control of 0.7 % of GDP and to relinquish the UKs control over food and goods regulations in Germany, France, Italy etc?

Too wordy lonely.

What I would like to see is a ban on false advertising during any further Referendums.

The idea of a people's vote without a hard question being talked of, is that it runs the risk of making the same mistake that the referendum that got us in this mess made: by not having firm explanation of what comes next for each option. And that should be something that is being worked on and isn't.

Jonathan Faull @FaullJonathan
With all the ignorant and dangerous talk about betrayal, why not simply admit that #Brexit is and was always going to be complicated? Pretending that there are easy answers to complex problems and attacking officials and judges who can’t answer back: the essence of populism.

David Henig @DavidHenigUK
This. 100%. We are in a dangerous place right now, with cries of betrayal all round, and a collective failure of political leadership. Some honesty that things are complicated and we can't have everything would be a good first step to improvement.

Henry Newman @HenryNewman
He has a point.

Part of whole problem Government is now in is because of a failure to level with public and MPs over previous months.

Leaving EU will have costs. Things can't stay exactly same. There are choices to make and tradeoffs to weigh up.

A simple solution of a new referendum, falls foul of the above just as much as eurosceptics did. It also falls foul of the same mistake Cameron etc el made: the arrogance that remainers would win this time.

Re : Justine Greening

David Henig @DavidHenigUK
The article that's not surprisingly the political story of the day. The White Paper being a horrible mess is clear enough, but using another referendum to try and clear up what the politicians have made of the issue seems rather optimistic. Some home truths 1/
First, the EU conversation has stayed largely where it has always been, as one for the London political classes. Some might now be seeing the phenomenal complexity of leaving the EU, but to many the story as reflected through the mass media is just EU obstructiveness as usual 2/
This Brexit political debate is dominated by half truth. Soft Brexiteers with a few exceptions don't admit they actually don't want to leave the EU. Many hard Brexiteers want to leave at all costs and similarly won't admit that, so claim the costs will be limited 3/
Both sides have continued from the referendum in seeing the UK as equal to the EU, like we can have whatever we want. The group in the middle who always wanted to leave to join the EEA, were at least mostly honest in seeking a compromise approach 4/
There have been many outstanding reports about Brexit in the media, but the dominant media narrative has been one of clashing personalities, each equipped with their own facts, rather than trying to help establish a single truth 5/
In the midst of it all a conservative government and media has somehow turned business, promised early certainty, into the enemy within. They don't want to speak up, but wouldn't we want to know if say every car maker in the UK had plans to leave in the next 10 years? 6/
Throughout all this we have a PM who seems incapable of providing leadership to build consensus, but has rather encouraged the secret style of government she made to work at Home Office. It can't work in a complex negotiation like this 7/
Against this backdrop it's hard to see a referendum helping do anything other than divide further. First we'd need some honesty and leadership about the real choices, which is unlikely to come from the PM or the leader of the opposition 8/
The choice remains, full political freedom with borders and likely economic hit, a member of the EU, which we know about, and a Norway style relationship where we are outside political framework but in the economic one. We can't have a referendum until we have this debate 9/ ends

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
"But if there is sufficient will it can be done," say Leavers and Remainers alike.

But believing complex tasks can be done at speed thorough will-power alone is part of the problem of Brexit, not the solution.

Can we please stop the magical thinking on both sides.

David Allen Green
‏ @davidallengreen

A further referendum: a dose of legal reality

A thread.

Here is the estimable @Robert_Harris putting forward why he thinks there could be a further referendum. Plausible. 2.

Robert Harris
‏ @Robert_Harris

Strongly suspect there will be 2nd referendum, not for any noble reason, but because MPs will desperately want to hand the screaming, defecating, vomiting baby back to its parents — the electorate — & let them decide what to do with it

And here is the former Tory cabinet minister @JustineGreening making the argument for a further referendum. Again plausible. twitter.com/JustineGreening/status/1018619775268814848 … 3.

Justine Greening
‏Verified account @JustineGreening

Having read the detail, this deal is a fudge. It’s the worst of both worlds. Time to take the decision out of the hands of stalemated politicians and give it back to the people to decide. #Chequersdeal

The idea of a people's vote without a hard question being talked of, is that it runs the risk of making the same mistake that the referendum that got us in this mess made: by not having firm explanation of what comes next for each option. And that should be something that is being worked on and isn't.

Jonathan Faull @FaullJonathan
With all the ignorant and dangerous talk about betrayal, why not simply admit that #Brexit is and was always going to be complicated? Pretending that there are easy answers to complex problems and attacking officials and judges who can’t answer back: the essence of populism.

David Henig @DavidHenigUK
This. 100%. We are in a dangerous place right now, with cries of betrayal all round, and a collective failure of political leadership. Some honesty that things are complicated and we can't have everything would be a good first step to improvement.

Henry Newman @HenryNewman
He has a point.

Part of whole problem Government is now in is because of a failure to level with public and MPs over previous months.

Leaving EU will have costs. Things can't stay exactly same. There are choices to make and tradeoffs to weigh up.

A simple solution of a new referendum, falls foul of the above just as much as eurosceptics did. It also falls foul of the same mistake Cameron etc el made: the arrogance that remainers would win this time.

Re : Justine Greening

David Henig @DavidHenigUK
The article that's not surprisingly the political story of the day. The White Paper being a horrible mess is clear enough, but using another referendum to try and clear up what the politicians have made of the issue seems rather optimistic. Some home truths 1/
First, the EU conversation has stayed largely where it has always been, as one for the London political classes. Some might now be seeing the phenomenal complexity of leaving the EU, but to many the story as reflected through the mass media is just EU obstructiveness as usual 2/
This Brexit political debate is dominated by half truth. Soft Brexiteers with a few exceptions don't admit they actually don't want to leave the EU. Many hard Brexiteers want to leave at all costs and similarly won't admit that, so claim the costs will be limited 3/
Both sides have continued from the referendum in seeing the UK as equal to the EU, like we can have whatever we want. The group in the middle who always wanted to leave to join the EEA, were at least mostly honest in seeking a compromise approach 4/
There have been many outstanding reports about Brexit in the media, but the dominant media narrative has been one of clashing personalities, each equipped with their own facts, rather than trying to help establish a single truth 5/
In the midst of it all a conservative government and media has somehow turned business, promised early certainty, into the enemy within. They don't want to speak up, but wouldn't we want to know if say every car maker in the UK had plans to leave in the next 10 years? 6/
Throughout all this we have a PM who seems incapable of providing leadership to build consensus, but has rather encouraged the secret style of government she made to work at Home Office. It can't work in a complex negotiation like this 7/
Against this backdrop it's hard to see a referendum helping do anything other than divide further. First we'd need some honesty and leadership about the real choices, which is unlikely to come from the PM or the leader of the opposition 8/
The choice remains, full political freedom with borders and likely economic hit, a member of the EU, which we know about, and a Norway style relationship where we are outside political framework but in the economic one. We can't have a referendum until we have this debate 9/ ends

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
"But if there is sufficient will it can be done," say Leavers and Remainers alike.

But believing complex tasks can be done at speed thorough will-power alone is part of the problem of Brexit, not the solution.

Can we please stop the magical thinking on both sides.

David Allen Green
‏ @davidallengreen

A further referendum: a dose of legal reality

A thread.

Here is the estimable @Robert_Harris putting forward why he thinks there could be a further referendum. Plausible. 2.

Robert Harris
‏ @Robert_Harris

Strongly suspect there will be 2nd referendum, not for any noble reason, but because MPs will desperately want to hand the screaming, defecating, vomiting baby back to its parents — the electorate — & let them decide what to do with it

And here is the former Tory cabinet minister @JustineGreening making the argument for a further referendum. Again plausible. twitter.com/JustineGreening/status/1018619775268814848 … 3.

Justine Greening
‏Verified account @JustineGreening

Having read the detail, this deal is a fudge. It’s the worst of both worlds. Time to take the decision out of the hands of stalemated politicians and give it back to the people to decide. #Chequersdeal

But that's the problem it always was a wordy question.

Re. crap BBC, they haven't updated their Brexit pages showing Davis has resigned yet...

I think no deal would win. Some remainers may vote for middle option as brexit won last time.

I teach Functional Maths and English.

If there is anything everyone hates, it's a wordy question.

Much of my time is spent helping people understand the question (and then give a sensible answer).

Posted too soon:

But. Complex problems rarely admit easy solutions. Some chap in the first century similarly thought he could wash his hands of a hard decision. From a political perspective, this is a problem for politicians to sort out rather than to disown. 4.

On the political reasons not to have a further referendum, read this excellent thread by former senior UK trade official @DavidHenigUK - a must-follow on Brexit. 5.

The point of this thread is about the present legal unreality of a further referendum. Put simply: as things stand, there is not enough time. 6.

There is no general referendum legislation, from which you can get an off-the-peg EU referendum. It would need primary legislation. And not only primary legislation. 7.

There would also need to be secondary legislation on voting registration and funding limits for campaigns and so on. The Referendum Act 2015 took seven months to pass. Statutory instruments took another five months. See my @JackofKent post here: jackofkent.com/2017/12/there-will-soon-not-be-enough-time-for-a-further-referendum-before-29-march-2019/ 8.

Some of you recall that there still had to be "emergency" secondary legislation because of voter registration limits. A further referendum cannot happen as if by magic. A huge legislative task. 9.

And it is mid-July. It is difficult, if not impossible, to see how a sensible process of legislating for a further referendum can take place for it to take place before 29 March 2019, whatever the merits. 10.

So: any properly conducted referendum needs there to be an extension of time. But nobody in government or the front bench opposition is calling for that (yet). Any any extension would need to be agreed by EU27. Maybe they will agree, maybe not. 11.

Regardless of the political and constitutional problems with a further referendum, there is the problem of legal possibility. A lack of due regard to legal practicalities has been a feature of Brexit. Magical thinking is not enough. 12 and ends.

I have demonstrated for another ref with misgivings.

I think that another ref would produce the same "we don't need no-one" response.

( I know it's a double negative.)

How about. Do you want

a) Triumph
b) Disaster

(No I don't want to treat those two imposters just the same thanks. )

Would you like to die on a trolley during the next week or have a constant bleeding ulcer which will finish you off in 5 years? kind of question.

While DExEU received pro bono work from the likes of Accenture, Deloitte and KPMG in 2016/17, it is now starting to spend, signing a £1.9m contract with McKinsey for six months of work in 2017. BEIS and Defra have both recently signed £1m contracts with The Boston Consulting Group.

While trying to find some figures on expenditure so far on Brexit , I came across this paragraph , is it normal for private companies to do pro bono work for government departments ?

Paging RTB, Nearly time for yet another thread!!

Govt is now starting to spend, signing a £1.9m contract with McKinsey for six months of work in 2017.

McKinsey have been on board advising the gov from early on. All that "we need imaginative solutions" crap from DD and TM was based on a McKinsey report.

I always remembered this from 2016 and thought that it was probably a sneak preview of what the govt were paying squillions for.

www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/europe/productivity-the-route-to-brexit-success

Where did you see that frumpety? Was also curious abut DExEU spending. In the 'transparency' section (expenditure over 25k) government site, it's 1.3 million on legal fees....www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/720663/16-17_SPEND_OVER_25K.csv_-16-17_Transparency.csv__1.csv/preview

The good thing about talk about a second referendum is that is forces Brexiteers onto the back foot a little. (Or rather it would if we had decent media). After all, if Brexit really is the will of the people, then they should welcome a chance to restate that.

If, on the other hand, they are afraid that the campaign will be fill of disinformation so that people might not support Brexit quite so much this time, or that people who did vote Leave might vote Remain because of the Horlicks that's been made of it so far; then they are either admitting that the original referendum was flawed, or that they were wrong about how easy Brexit would be.

That said, I can't see a second referendum solving anything. Like a GE. It will simply end up with pretty much the same split.

There will be no vote on deal. There will be a crash out. EU has important issues to deal with. We're collateral.

But at least the Queen has now got the message out there that Brexit. Is. Complicated. And the media were forced to report it.

I remain convinced that she knew that the Orange Bawbag wouldn't be able to resist disclosing that

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/cost-of-brexit-what-whitehall-spending-insight-final-vb_1.pdf

Brexit isn't complicated. All you have to do is unravel all the legal treaties that have been made between the UK and EU over the last 45 years, scrap them and rewrite them all as a separate nation. Simples, job done in a weekend (in the leaver's eyes).

link above citroen

And while the weekend of rewriting goes on, all businesses that trade with the EU have to stop and hold their breath to find out what the new rules will be.

Scott Mann @scottmann4NC
It is with a great deal of sadness that I have tendered my resignation as a Parliamentary Private Secretary at the Treasury.

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
Mann down... not the first today I understand

North Cornwall 2017
Conservative 25,835
Liberal Democrat 18,635
Labour 6,151
Christian Peoples 185
Socialist Labour 138

North Cornwall 2015
Conservative 21,689
Liberal Democrat 15,068
UKIP 6,121
Labour 2,621
Green 2,063
Mebyon Kernow 631
Restore the Family for Children's Sake 52

2017 Con vote minus 2015 Kipper vote = 19714.

Simple equation which many Tories will be shitting themselves at.