Westministenders: May's Turd Way covered in Donald's Glittery Tickertape from his Parade

[RedToothBrush]

Where next?

Auditions for chief turd polisher to Mrs May are in full action, whilst those who don't believe in the turd, wade about knee deep in their own shit, still searching for that illusive plan for Brexit which doesn't stink to high heaven of crap.

After the dual resignation of Davis and Johnson, amongst the stench there is an air of uncertainity and expectation of all hell breaking loose.

In the last 48 hours we have been told that

1. May is more secure having crushed the brexiteers,
2. May about to be ousted by a no confidence vote, triggering a leadership election,
3. The Tory Party are about to split,
4. Brexiteers are in disarray fighting amongst themselves,
5. We will remain in the EU,
6. We get an EEA deal,
7. We will get no deal,
8. A People's vote is inevitable and
9. There will be a General Election.

Which only serves to merely highlight just how little of a clue ANYONE has about what happens next.

What bothers me now, is that Johnson seems not to have surfaced yet and there are rumours that Gove has gone to ground, whilst Donald Trump is practically on the plane and is stirring the pot praising Johnson.

Instead we seem to have a series of junior ministers and Tory HQ figures quitting in a long drawn out coordinated toy throwing out of the pram exercise, to try and get what hard brexiteers want.

If I had to hazard a guess at the general silence from key figures, I might be tempted to say that someone is going to use Trump's visit to throw a political grenade and actively invite him to endorse them.

That might sound ridiculous given that the public hates Trump, but that loses sight of the fact that the people who will vote for the next leader of the Tory Party are overwhelming authoritarian leaning and likely to be those who like Trump and would be impressed by such a move.

I note this tweet today from the wise Sarah Kendzior:

Sarah Kendzior @sarahkendzior
"There are parallels to past authoritarianism, but what's happening with Trump, in the digital age, is new and transnational. The president's loyalty is not necessarily to a state but to foreign leaders and multinational criminal alliances. The state is just something to sell."

It is clear that others in the parliamentary party will be very alarmed at the prospect. There were Tory MPs who were openly tweeted how please that disgusting Johnson had gone and are no fans of Trump.

May still seems to think that she can get her plan through and approved by the EU in its current form. The White Paper is due on Thursday.

Much speculation is that it will be significant if she fails to produce this on time, as she will have capitulated to the Brexiteers. And this will lead to the EU just giving up on us anyway.

She also announced to the Cabinet today, that preparations for No Deal were to be stepped up significantly.

We still are left wondering who, she is stitching up; the Brexiteers whose heads are currently exploding or the friends she keeps closest to her (friends? or ideological enemies).

The problem is that there just no other viable way forward at the moment, as the country is divided, both Labour and the Conservatives are divided and are more interested in their own future than that of the party and there are far too many ambitious 'celebrity MPs' who want to make their mark. No one gives a shit about ordinary workers or business. Plus there is the divine observation that DGRossetti made at the end of the last thread: The biggest obstacle to Brexit has been Brexiteers

The grab for post-Brexit power shows the whole of Westminister up as the cess pit of self interest it is, with Boris Johnson merely its biggest figure head.

Wait until the GFA officially has its head put on the chopping block awaiting its fate. Perhaps we can flog NI to Donald and get a Brexit Dividend afterall.

I must admit to finding it hard to have a view that is altogether different to this:
James Patrick @J_amesp
There is no way back from all of this. The next seven days simply decide how badly - on a scale of fucked to smouldering crater - it is going to end.

One final predictation, which I am DAMN certain of: Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday are all going to be grim for political watching if you are into democratic values and principles. It will be a 4 day sales pitch for Brand Trump in all its All American Overblown Horror that Brits tend to find utterly distasteful. Expect the red carpet of full of turd glitter to be rolled out for Donald Trump Show. Expect May to embarass herself in her fawning all over him, as if she's star struck. Expect that hideously cringeworthy photo thats totally inevitable.

Politics is going to get worse. It may never get better.

(But yay football gets to cover it all up... Come on England!)

Yes, May would rely on Labour votes to approve a deal - provided it is basically Norway+
However, she certainly can't rely on them for worse deals
Especially if the deal is WTO+, Labour Remainers might judge it is worth abstaining and letting the Tories carry the can for the

Those 50 MP's mentioned up thread who's seats are in peril, are they all Leave voting areas ?

No they aren't. I'll have a proper look through them but to give you one example Cheadle was 42% remain.

At the last election it was:
Conservative - Mary Robinson 24,331 44.6 +1.5
Liberal Democrat - Mark Hunter 19,824 36.3 +5.4
Labour - Martin Miller 10,417 19.1 +2.8

The 2015 result was:
Conservative - 22,889
Liberal Democrat - 16,436
Labour - 8,673
UKIP - 4,423
Independent - 390
Above and Beyond - 208
Independence from Europe - 76

In other words the effect of there being only 3 candidates - and no ukip candidate - was that the Conservatives picked up all the UKIP candidates, whilst the liberal conservatives voted LD.

Not to mention, those Remainers who continued to vote Tory - and there were a lot - are all pro-business types going FUCK THIS SHIT SHOW.

The idea that seat losses will just be because of Labour gaining popularity is wrong. The vote shift is not even.

The Tories have a LOT to fear from UKIP fielding candidates, because May gambled on that at the last election rather than courting One Nation Tories. UKIP voters propped them up. Even if UKIP don't stand a candidate, the Tories run the risk of Con-Kippers staying home.

In an affluent constituency like Cheadle where there is a reasonable LD presence, there is a 'fear of Corbyn effect' but there is an alternative to the Conservatives. Those voters are MUCH more likely to vote LD, especially if the chances of a hung parliament are high.

Glancing quickly though the list, I think there are other similar examples, and there are also examples in Scotland and Wales of losing seats to the SNP and Plaid.

Its too simplistic to say these are all leave areas. They really aren't.

Hello Everyone. Lovely to see you all. I've been lurking, working and healing.

1. I'm wondering two things at the moment: Whether there will be a Last Push by the Hard Brexit loons in an attempt to unseat May. I figure they know that if they can get it out to the constituency members, they are barking enough to vote in someone of the Bastard tendency (to use John Major's technical term).

1. Whether (if May survives) Labour will split, with moderate Labour MPs giving May the support to get whatever the final thing is through.

It's all a bit nail-biting. And horrible. And frustrating.

And I am SO angry.

I have had many thoughts about the Trump visit but I think I am a bit too ground down with the heat and the endless shitness fo Brexit to untangle them in a communicable order.

Anyway - really nice to see you all again.

Oh, and did any of you go on the demo in London? I did. It was very large and (of course) good-natured. Even the moment when a group of Far rightists demanded safe escort from their rat-hole. One wonders why they turned up I guess they must have believed various on-line shills that it would be fairly sparsely attended.

The Heil has "Boris Johnson prepares to make bombshell speech" about his resignation, which sounds like he's leaked to them that he'll be attacking May
(of course, he could still be deciding which draft to use !)

JRM in the Express has abandoned restraint on attacking May
However, he hasn't called for her resignation: the question is whether Boris will take that step, egged on by Trump and his far-right acolytes.

Nice to see you again, cat
I hope you are fully recovered now

Oh god, the news just popped up. Trump again. Its not the fault of the hackers but of those hacked for not having proper defences. Victim blaming at its finest. What a complete tango dick.

The world cup trophy ceremony just highlighted the difference between politicians that can appear like actual humans and those who can't. Macron and especially Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović hugging the players warmly, offering condolences and congratulations. Whilst Putin was largely aloof. They also stayed in the pouring rain to continue whereas Putin was the first to be covered.

Hello Cat, I have missed seeing you post - hope you are well on the recovery road!

Jeremy Hunt is a Remain MP in a Remain "pig-in-a-blue-rosette" constituency, yet has kept his dainty pink nose clean and his trotters well polished...

So when the Pentagon was hacked a while ago why were they desperate to extradite the UK guy over to the USA rather than slap the wrists of the Pentagon for being 'sloppy'? OK different administration I know.

Semi-recovered. Still waiting for tests: well over a year now; our NHS is seriously under-funded.

I was alarmed at - was it Lloyds? - saying they were making plans to move 'post-haste' to Brussels after the White Paper went public.

And Debenhams is in trouble now.

The Trump visit was a fiasco, and very much a testament to May's infallibly crap political nous. She has an astonishing lack of the deft adroitness necessary to a top-level political player. Political flat-feet, really. I think the latest story is that both Prince Charles and Prince William refused to meet him. That, along with Trump revealing the Queen described Brexit as 'complicated' (which is some way from the ridiculous story that she was all in favour of Brexit, and some way from the story of it all being a simple matter of 'just walking away' or 'being tough' that is peddled for and believed by the seriously dim-witted) just goes to emphasise what an enormous act of hasty, badly-timed, ill-thought-through problem-creating May's invitation was.

Diplomatically, it's been absolutely execrable. I fear it has ultimately done her no favours. Initially, I thought that her very precariousness as a result of it all might make the spin from the EU more positive wrt negotiations and Labour Centrists more likely to support her but I think that she is looking increasingly like toast. Which, I think, might lead to No Deal. Bizarre and horrifying that a minority group within one Party might be able to push through an deal which is patently against the national interest. I guess we'll see.

I also wonder if part of the ruthlessness of the Brexit Bastards might be to do with keeping any possibility of a public enquiry into the Referendum at bay.

So another Tory down (FCO PPS Robert Courts) but all members of the European Research Group up to J. Rees-Mogg can resign and it still won't make any difference. Suspect May was looking relaxed at the tennis because Trumpety Trump has departed and the white paper has been released. She's done the best she can (as a remainer) in keeping close to Europe and seeing off the loony faction in her own party. What will be will be and she'll be happy walking in the mountains with Philip whatever happens.

If the brexiteer fringe was discredited in British politics, it might be possible to get on with something else. I'd see that as a definite bonus.

Going through the list, with the estimated Leave vote (I've removed the few that change which aren't currently CON. All of the below go from Con to Lab unless stated)

Aberconwy: 52% - Guto Bebb
Angus: 48% - Kirstene Hair (goes SNP)
Ayr Carrick and Cumnock: 44% - Bill Grant (goes SNP)
Blackpool North and Cleveleys: 66% - Paul Maynard
Bolton West: 55% - Chris Green
Broxtowe: 52% - Anna Soubry
Calder Valley: 51% - Craig Whittaker
Cambourne and Redruth: 58% - George Eustice
Carlisle: 60% - John Stevenson
Cheadle: 42% - Mary Robinson (goes LD)
Cheltenham: 42% - Alex Chalk (goes LD)
Chingford and Woodgreen: 49% - Iain Duncan Smith
Chipping Barnet: 41% - Theresa Villers
Copeland: 59% - Trudy Harrison Nuclear Industry
Corby: 60% - Tom Pursglove Car Industry
Crawley: 58% - Henry Smith
Derbyshire North East: 62% - Lee Rowley
Devon North: 57% - Peter Heaton-Jones (goes LD)
Finchley and Golders Green: 31% - Mike Freer
Gordon: 44% Colin Clark (goes SNP)
Harrow East: 49% - Bob Blackman
Hastings and Rye: 55% - Amber Rudd
Hendon: 41% - Matthew Offord Large Jewish Population
Mansfield: 70% - Ben Bradley
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East: 65% Simon Clarke
Milton Keynes North: 49% - Mark Lancaster
Milton Keynes South: 53% - Iain Stewart
Morecambe and Lunesdale: 58% - David Morris
Morley and Outwood: 59% - Andrea Jenkins
Northampton North: 60% - Michael Ellis Council Bankrupt
Northampton South: 58% - Andrew Lewer Council Bankrupt
Norwich North: 56% - Chloe Smith
Pendle: 63% - Andrew Stephenson
Preseli Pembrokeshire: 55% - Stephen Crabb
Pudsey: 48% - Stuart Andrew
Putney: 27% - Justine Greening

Reading West: 51% - Alok Sharma
^Richmond Park: 28% - Zac Goldsmith (goes LD) Heathrow
Rossendale and Darwen: 58% - Jake Berry

Southampton Itchen: 60% - Royston Smith
^Southport: 46% - Damien Moore

I count (and I've done it very swiftly and might have miscounted) 15 Remain and 26 Leave. Several have very particular local issues which might affect the vote. Not sure how many of these are currently ministers. There are a number of very prominant remainers in there too.

It certainly is NOT an obvious list of MPs who will suddenly turn on May.

Arguably, whichever way, May went she would have the same problem of voters going towards Labour. At the moment, perhaps because May has been softer in tone, a lot of the support the Tories have been gaining has come from remainers not leavers. If May goes full on no deal, the chances are she'd lose that anyway.

May is between a rock and a hard place however you cut it.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/15/elizabeth-denham-data-protection-information-commissioner-facebook-cambridge-analytica?CMP=share_btn_tw
Elizabeth Denham: ‘Data crimes are real crimes’
Interview with Carole Cadwalladr

Carole Cadwalladr @carolecadwalla
ALSO NEW: ICO looking at bringing other potential criminal charges against Cambridge Analytica including conspiracy, obstructing the course of justice & offences under the Misuse of Computers act (hacking)

This is important. Under Data Protection Act its fine only. Misue of Computers Act carries jail term as a potential sentence.

Also in the above article

Carole Cadwalladr @ carolecadwalla
This is really significant. On Friday, we learned from Mueller that Russians stole DNC data analytics. We reveal today, Denham was with FBI last week & that Cambridge Analytica’s servers were accessed from Russia

Morley and Outwood: 59% - Andrea Jenkins
This used to be Ed Balls' gaff ... and has absolutely no business voting tory.

Pudsey: 48% - Stuart Andrew
This spunk trumpet has been telling me since the referendum that he was honouring the leave vote as it was what his constituents wanted... remain city, remain constituency... he came very very close to being unseated last time around. And he won't make himself less likely to be ousted by clamouring for a hard brexit - even though that is what he wants, himself.
He is also one of the landlord mps that voted against safety standards in rented accommodation. He is awful.

I'm sad to see his mate down in Shipley is not also on the list.

This was the most likely seats to go. The poll released later in the day was worse. And Phillip Davies was whinging on whatsapp about being in a marginal.

Now I don't view it as terribly marginal:

2017
Conservative - 27,417 - 51.3%
Labour - 22,736 - 42.6%
Liberal Democrat - 2,202 - 4.1%
Women's Equality - 1,040 - 1.9%

2015
Conservative - 25,269 - 50.0%
Labour - 15,645 - 31.0%
UKIP - 4,479 - 8.9%
Green - 2,657 - 5.3%
Liberal Democrat - 1,949 - 3.9%
Yorkshire Party - 543 - 1.1%

From that its difficult to see where there would be a big enough shift in votes would come to oust him.

But for him to be so worried, it suggests something is happening on the ground.

Morley and Outwood: 59% - Andrea Jenkins
This used to be Ed Balls' gaff ... and has absolutely no business voting tory.

I would love to see her go. I wonder if this is why she's desperately trying to up her profile on Twitter. Last election she gained votes from the split Kipper vote.

2017 vote

2015 vote

I do think this makes it more likely that the Conservatives will do anything to avoid a GE. And I don't think there are the numbers for anyone else to force one.

However, I'm not sure that makes May any more secure against a leadership challenge. I think ...

Yes, most Tories want to avoid a general election at all costs. However, it might be that the ERG goes for it on the basis that this is their only possible a way of getting the hard Brexit they want. Relying on TM or Parliament won’t work and they have little to lose, especially if they’re promised help from Putin, Bannon etc..

So nobody's happy with the middle way. Which way will it go?
We could have the Ultras forcing a no-deal exit. Or the hard Remainers forcing a 2nd vote /withdrawal of A50 /Remain.
It's reaching the point where something's got to give, one way or the other.
We can't carry on down the middle for ever because no-one's really going to go for it.
Least of all, the EU. It's going to be another 'interesting' week.

Bojo article out tomorrow?

Is this it? www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/15/rest-world-believes-britain-time-did/amp/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_Aq7QQLC4tc20&__twitter_impression=true

Sorry, paywall. I’ve only read what’s available without paying but it doesn’t seem like a volte-face is imminent.

If J R-M and rest of ERG throw in wrecking motions for May's Chequers plan in Parliament, there's even less chance of it going through. How can a GE or even second referendum be avoided? A hard Brexit is not possible because it is simply impossible.