Westministenders: May's Turd Way covered in Donald's Glittery Tickertape from his Parade

[RedToothBrush]

Where next?

Auditions for chief turd polisher to Mrs May are in full action, whilst those who don't believe in the turd, wade about knee deep in their own shit, still searching for that illusive plan for Brexit which doesn't stink to high heaven of crap.

After the dual resignation of Davis and Johnson, amongst the stench there is an air of uncertainity and expectation of all hell breaking loose.

In the last 48 hours we have been told that

1. May is more secure having crushed the brexiteers,
2. May about to be ousted by a no confidence vote, triggering a leadership election,
3. The Tory Party are about to split,
4. Brexiteers are in disarray fighting amongst themselves,
5. We will remain in the EU,
6. We get an EEA deal,
7. We will get no deal,
8. A People's vote is inevitable and
9. There will be a General Election.

Which only serves to merely highlight just how little of a clue ANYONE has about what happens next.

What bothers me now, is that Johnson seems not to have surfaced yet and there are rumours that Gove has gone to ground, whilst Donald Trump is practically on the plane and is stirring the pot praising Johnson.

Instead we seem to have a series of junior ministers and Tory HQ figures quitting in a long drawn out coordinated toy throwing out of the pram exercise, to try and get what hard brexiteers want.

If I had to hazard a guess at the general silence from key figures, I might be tempted to say that someone is going to use Trump's visit to throw a political grenade and actively invite him to endorse them.

That might sound ridiculous given that the public hates Trump, but that loses sight of the fact that the people who will vote for the next leader of the Tory Party are overwhelming authoritarian leaning and likely to be those who like Trump and would be impressed by such a move.

I note this tweet today from the wise Sarah Kendzior:

Sarah Kendzior @sarahkendzior
"There are parallels to past authoritarianism, but what's happening with Trump, in the digital age, is new and transnational. The president's loyalty is not necessarily to a state but to foreign leaders and multinational criminal alliances. The state is just something to sell."

It is clear that others in the parliamentary party will be very alarmed at the prospect. There were Tory MPs who were openly tweeted how please that disgusting Johnson had gone and are no fans of Trump.

May still seems to think that she can get her plan through and approved by the EU in its current form. The White Paper is due on Thursday.

Much speculation is that it will be significant if she fails to produce this on time, as she will have capitulated to the Brexiteers. And this will lead to the EU just giving up on us anyway.

She also announced to the Cabinet today, that preparations for No Deal were to be stepped up significantly.

We still are left wondering who, she is stitching up; the Brexiteers whose heads are currently exploding or the friends she keeps closest to her (friends? or ideological enemies).

The problem is that there just no other viable way forward at the moment, as the country is divided, both Labour and the Conservatives are divided and are more interested in their own future than that of the party and there are far too many ambitious 'celebrity MPs' who want to make their mark. No one gives a shit about ordinary workers or business. Plus there is the divine observation that DGRossetti made at the end of the last thread: The biggest obstacle to Brexit has been Brexiteers

The grab for post-Brexit power shows the whole of Westminister up as the cess pit of self interest it is, with Boris Johnson merely its biggest figure head.

Wait until the GFA officially has its head put on the chopping block awaiting its fate. Perhaps we can flog NI to Donald and get a Brexit Dividend afterall.

I must admit to finding it hard to have a view that is altogether different to this:
James Patrick @J_amesp
There is no way back from all of this. The next seven days simply decide how badly - on a scale of fucked to smouldering crater - it is going to end.

One final predictation, which I am DAMN certain of: Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday are all going to be grim for political watching if you are into democratic values and principles. It will be a 4 day sales pitch for Brand Trump in all its All American Overblown Horror that Brits tend to find utterly distasteful. Expect the red carpet of full of turd glitter to be rolled out for Donald Trump Show. Expect May to embarass herself in her fawning all over him, as if she's star struck. Expect that hideously cringeworthy photo thats totally inevitable.

Politics is going to get worse. It may never get better.

(But yay football gets to cover it all up... Come on England!)

The people behind the power behind Brexit really don't care if it happens or not. Nor how it happens. The damage is already done, and they are shoring up their positions as we speak.

I would add to that the Putin effect.
I am absolutely sure that he has something to do with it (and with Trump election).
Yes vereything was right in each country for that to happen. But the whole warfare, disinformation, propaganda is for me, typica, of an ex KGB member. Justbthe tools have changed. Putin has kept up with his time and is using the internet to do so too (plus buying people out. That hasn’t changed anyway). Not as expensive, easier than full on war.
But the way it’s destabilising the whole country is exactly what he wants.
The uk out of the EU. And unstable politically so less power.
The EU destabilised by the whole thing. Add to that a bit of stroking the fire in some countries with right wing tendencies etc... A weaker EU is all good for him.
Because he NEEDS control of some of the Eastern countries (access to the Med and as a buffer)

Add some more instability in the US (and crazy decisions from Trump) which is actually weakening the US position in the world.

All of the above which reinforce HIS position and his ability to access parts of the world he wants.

How on earth did they find a home in the Conservative Party, when they want to crash & burn the UK for their revolution ?

Because they ve been l

Sorry...

Because they’ve been left in to get the UKIP votes.

Johnson & Johnson to pay $4.7bn damages in talc cancer case www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44816805

But regulations on goods and food are a bad thing. We the people don't want nasty red tape to protect us. Oh no.

How on earth did they find a home in the Conservative Party, when they want to crash & burn the UK for their revolution ?

Because that's the party which originated to defend privilege and the landed classes. To a true blue tory, trade is a pretty vulgar sordid affair, but as long as you can make money allowing other people to do it then it's to be tolerated. "Encouraged" is a bit strong. After all, we don't want the lower classes (like JRM) breaking wind in the palaces of the mighty.

Human society has had slavery, serfdom and feudalism far far longer than it hasn't .... given that across the globe today, there are societies which not only still aggressively practice both, but with which the UK is keen as mustard to "do business". We have already sired a generation that will never own land. fast forward another generation, and another, and we'll be back to the golden age of England. A feudal pastoral society where everyone is in the place God Himself ordained.

We even sang hymns at school about it, and the English national anthem (by convention) is a mission statement to the rest of the world.

Talk about hiding in plain sight.

FFS, I’m actually of the opinion now that the lead proponents of brexit, along with Cameron, should be up for treason. To put our country in such a vulnerable and dangerous position, to mess about with the economy like it’s an inconsequential play thing, to put us in the hands of foreign tyrants. Unpatriotic, self-serving bastards, the lot of them.

The quickest way of stopping this would be to declare a failed coup, round up the ringleaders and prosecute them for treason.
It’s how they’d have been dealt with years ago.

This is probably why the slimy Gove has slithered back under his stone for a bit to wait out the repercussions.

Cameron made the fatal miscalculation that the LibDems would still be required for a coalition and therefore that he'd never be required to follow through on his commitment to a referendum.

For which he should be excoriated.

And even more so for not putting in any proper safeguards like a threshold on what was supposedly only an advisory referendum.

And for not defining what Leave meant.

And for allowing the Leave campaign not to define what Leave meant

And for following an Austerity programme which increased regional divergence in wealth to create the environment for disgruntlement which had nothing to do with the EU

And for not actually implanting the controls on FoM which were already available to him

I think Putin is as much a pawn as JRM. People who think they are clever - especially when other people tell them they are clever - are the easiest to work with. That's why formal institutions which declare people as "clever" are a useful tool in the box. Especially if you can use them when it suits you and decry them when it doesn't. (can anyone see what word is coming up ?).

Of course the decrying mechanism is the media.

So Doctor says something which is useful to the system. He's a doctor for gods sake. With all that implies about qualifications and being clever.

Doctor says something not useful to the system. The media rip them to shreds, and all that learning, that proven intelligence is for naught.

"Experts", eh ? Who needs them ?

And of course we - the punters - have been complicit in this. It's because we believed that Barry from Braintrees belief in fairies is just as valid as Professor Brian Cox knowledge of particle physics that we've diluted knowledge till it's useless.

Society is only as clever as the dimmest members, sadly.

And of course we - the punters - have been complicit in this. It's because we believed that Barry from Braintrees belief in fairies is just as valid as Professor Brian Cox knowledge of particle physics that we've diluted knowledge till it's useless.

I think that when history looks at all this shit, the role of technological advances will be seen as having a defining role. One of the many reasons for what has happened (and is happening) is the 40 character soundbite contributing to the dilution of knowledge and insight.

People need and except no more depth than a Trump tweet or a Vote Leave meme.

Britain Elects @britainelects
Southwold & Reydon (Waveney) result:

LDEM: 71.4% (+71.4)
CON: 21.8% (-28.4)
LAB: 5.5% (-14.7)
UKIP: 1.3% (-13.4)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

No GRN (-14.9) as prev.

Waveney at the EU ref - 63% Leave.

50% of the population are of below average intelligence. Although you aren't allowed to say that these days. It's political correctness gone mad.

So it's axiomatic that quite a few Brexiteers were not as intelligent as some Leavers (of course the reverse is true).

That fact alone is reason for insisting on a margin for Leave to win. Remain never had to "win", just not lose, and we carry on as before.

I know which side of 50% Cameron came from.

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative

In a leave constituency ?

71.4%

It's only 1,417 voters and a turnout of 49.2% but even so.

Just seen a map.

Is that East Anglian ? Suddenly not quite so Tory and Labour as they were ?

Pute moi !

Wow, I know many who are planning on changing their vote to LD. If they get on top of the notion that TWAW they could make a comeback.

Looks like there were local
issues which the LibDems addressed better than the Tories but a teeny shot across the bows of both main parties nevertheless..

www.eadt.co.uk/news/liberal-democrats-campaign-for-second-home-holiday-let-tax-loophole-change-1-5471501

Sisters school the misters. Hope everyone is safe and sound today on the marches.
twitter.com/ValGillies/status/1017737318067855366

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Anyone want a thread on the Brexit White Paper?

Having read and thought about it, I am quite optimistic.

David Allen Green @davidallengreen

Why the Brexit White Paper is not a disaster and may be a Good Thing.
A thread. 1.

In at least four ways the White Paper is a Fail. 2.

First, the White Paper does not satisfy many of the political and media supporters of Brexit. To the point there were ministerial resignations. 3.

Second, the White paper proposes a Brexit for which there is probably no parliamentary majority at the moment. (That said, there is probably no version of Brexit for which there is a parliamentary majority at the moment.) 4.

Third, the White Paper cannot and will not be accepted in the round by the EU27. Picked cherries offered in the hope of cake. 5.

And fourth, the White Paper disregards the basic economic fact that UK is a services based economy. In interests of the services sectors are less important than goods. 6.

So the White Paper is a Fail in at least four ways. Why can one be optimistic? Two reasons, I suggest. 7.

8. The first reason is that almost all the trade parts of the White Paper do not need to be agreed before this coming March. They need to be agreed and in place by December 2020/the end of the transition period. 8.

Only the parts relevant to the Withdrawal Agreement need to be settled asap. In particular the parts relevant to the "backstop" and the Irish border. 9.

Once the EU (especially Ireland) and UK all feel comfortable on the backstop position then there is no real impediment to a Withdrawal Agreement being in place by next March. Only real deal-breaker left. 10.

And this is where numbered pages 8-9 (pdf pages 12-13) are fascinating. Take a moment to look at these two pages. White Paper is at: here 11.

You will see nine bullet points. Some concrete, some hazy. But they are to be taken together. Then see the following paragraph. 12.

I may be wrong but it seems to me that the UK government is giving itself cover to agree to the backstop. The contention being it will not need to be ever used, because of the nine bullet pointed things. 13.

Of course, some of the bullet points are dappy (at least at the moment) but once UK and EU/Ireland feel comfortable about the backstop provision then the Withdrawal Agreement is virtually there. Meaning transition period/cash/free movement/status quo to December 2020.

Which means no crash out in March next year. (Though still big things to be agreed before December 2020.) 15.

The second reason to be optimistic is that, for all its fails and faults, this is the first official UK document on Brexit which shows any maturity. (I know, I have read them all.) 16.

Far too late, of course. This should have been the sort of document in place before the Article 50 notification was made. But it is a sensible document, even if not a compelling one. Government beginning to get its act together, perhaps. 17.

There are many pundits who disagree and damn the White Paper more of the rotten same. They may well be right. But my view fwiw is an optimistic one. Yes there are fails, but there are also glimmers. /ends.

Green picked up on the one paragraph David Henig said was the most important in the whole document too.

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes

NEW

Here is new ERG statement after overnight confusion, which neither promises to nor ducks from voting against 3rd reading of customs bill on Mon

“Our focus is on our amendments. If those are passed, obviously by definition we'll have no problem with a bill which pleases us.”

INTERPRETATION: Unlike yesterday, it does not commit to its 30/40/50 members to voting against 3rd reading of customs bill. So in all likelyhood few will. Which is relief for gvt BUT Some MPs more determined than the ERG mainstream so splitters may split and it only takes 6

Cameron and may will surely go down in history as the worst PMs in British history

Boris: Hold my beer ...

Let's hope Cameron and May go down in history as the worst PMs ever! There is a lot worse out there ... and it's currently circling TM like sharks on a cramping swimmer.

I too feel very depressed today. Our prime minister sucking up to a man who has slagged her off behind her back and made derogatory comments about the mayor of London, all in the hope that we will be allowed to import some inferior food products.

Remember when we were being told that leaving would not mean lowering our standards? Yet now we have brexiteers moaning that we have committed to maintaining EU standards because it will stop us doing a trade deal with trump.

Trump who has said that he will deal with the EU rather than us if we don't change our regs. Which makes no sense because the EU won't change their regs. But then they are now a bigger market than us.