The Columnist @Sime0nStylites
1. The Brexit political crisis that many have predicted since the first mention of the ‘three red lines’ has finally arrived.
2. There has never been any chance that the dual promise of taking back control and a Brexit that would be straightforward and prosperous could ever be achieved.
3. The last two years have been a largely fruitless and wearying pursuit of a parallel SM structure (access without the obligations) that is an existential challenge to the EU.
4. This has nothing to do with how people voted or why they voted. Leave voters were promised a Brexit that is unachievable.
5. The only surprise is that the crisis didn’t happen earlier - eg at the sufficient progress checkpoint when the U.K. accepted the Irish back-stop.
6. The structural flaws are currently irreparable - a c 50/50 divide in the country and no majority in the HoC for any of the Brexit deals (potentially) on offer.
7. We are marooned at the Langragian point between the two available deals (Canada and Norway) without any power to make a choice.
8. And it will get worse before it gets better. The political crisis is just beginning - eventually there will be another election.
9. The economic crisis hasn’t happened yet. But it will. Unless there’s a decisive change of course. /ends
David Henig @DavidHenigUK
Where do today's events leave Brexit? To borrow from this thread it's the start of a UK political crisis, one that is almost certainly going to get worse before it gets better. A Suez crisis for our generation, how do we get out of this situation? 1/
Start from the obvious, and recognise that there is no simple solution. Remainers say there is, EEAers say there is, ERGers say there is, etc, but these solutions would leave huge numbers dissatisfied. I like what @Simonhartmp has to say here 2/
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-resigns_uk_5b438b25e4b0c523e2615ece
Boris Johnson And David Davis Leave The Brexit Project Hanging By A Thread
If today makes my colleagues look devious, self-indulgent, and incompetent - it's because they are
(Simon Hart is the Conservative MP for Carmarthen West)
At some point we need leadership - maybe from a group of MPs - to be honest with the UK public about the choices we face. Broadly as I endlessly retweet below. It might not be the case forever, but that is the choice for 9 months time 3/
Retweets this tweet by himself
Your periodic reminder that the UK Brexit choice is a border, on the island of Ireland, or the Irish Sea, or an exceptionally close relationship with the EU.
The UK Government currently rules out all of these options.
David Henig @DavidHenigUK
All the evidence suggests that both the PM and Leader of the Opposition are too tribal to put together the kind of cross-party coalition we need at this point. So I'm not sure where the leadership comes from. But it must come from somewhere 4/
Once we have that leadership another choice will emerge, which may in fact win the day, which is to extend different deadlines. That will also not be popular with many, but it might be the least unpopular option 5/
Somehow we are going to have to have some kind of open debate about where we want to go as a country. Such debates are to put it mildly counter to usual UK political culture. But I doubt we can reach an even halfway satisfactory outcome without this 6/
Even more uncomfortably we'll have to recognise some failings - not least the hit we have taken to our reputation for pragmatism in other countries and with global businesses. And those laughing at us because they thought we were globally arrogant e.g. our harsh visa regime 7/
He's still tweeting this thread but really slowly, so I'll cut it there for now. The point is that:
If you want Brexit YOU HAVE to extend the deadline. It is impossible to achieve successfully, without doing that. I can not see a viable alternative at this stage in proceedings.
If you don't want Brexit, you still have to get rid of the poison in this and persuade more moderate leavers that its an exceptional bad idea.
We have not crossed either bridge. We must cross one eventually to move forward as a country.
And in that context there are no surprises about this tweet either:
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage
Unless Brexit is back on track by March 2019, I will seriously consider putting my name forward to return as @UKIP leader. The will of 17.4m voters must be carried out.