Westminstenders: Don't Panic!

[RedToothBrush]

It's official

Brexit is like an episode of Dads Army with the government, being Captain Mainwaring's trusty band of elite forces doing battle against the evil Mr Barnier.

Yesterday Parliament gave back control to the executive as it surrendered parliamentary sovereignty to Janus faced May. Grieve, it has to be said, truly did look like a broken man as he gave his speech in the commons. Not that we should have too much sympathy. After all he did just put party before country.

So where are we now? The ERG are happy. They have successfully bullied enough until everyone else gave up and folded. They now have no incentive to compromise, as they know that no one can stand up to them. They want no deal, and it's no deal they will force.

The EU are thoroughly fed up and it's difficult to see them do anything but cut us loose saying Brexit means Brexit, this is what you wanted. They have stepped up planning for no deal and their plans were already much more advanced than ours.

We go into the next round of talks with a solution to the Irish Border looking further away than ever. Not helped by the fact that brexit nationalism is restricted to England alone, with many being happy to let NI be sunk into the Irish sea and the favour the rebuilding of Hadrian's wall in order to keep out the foreigners.

It's hard to resist simply sitting down wailing "we doomed". But try to resist and keep saying, you are against this crap. If only so history books don't just say we all agreed to this clusterfuck.

Here have a fluffy bunny to help comfort you.

Slow clap for the growing view in May's office.

@DGR
Speed of info.
Probably using BT about 15 miles outside of a major city.

Can I ask a question that I've been wondering about, sorry if it's been done. This 'deal' - is it a 'withdrawal deal' or a 'future relationship' deal? I have been under the impression that what is being agreed is the withdrawal agreement so far and that the future relationship will only be discussed once the withdrawal has happened??! It's so confusing, -argh this whole thing is mentally draining. Trying to keep up with it all, plus the usual strains of everyday life, plus the anxiety over my family's future is becoming overwhelming.

Anyone catch Saturday PM on radio 4? They mentioned rumours of a secret softest brexit deal then the presenter cut the man off.

Yes, I heard that cherrypi it was Sam Coates of the times......
Available on iplayer www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b6pjm3
"we're hearing whispers that Britain is looking for a very soft brexit indeed" at about 17 minutes in.

Ah thank you. Hmm interesting could May yet be revealed to be a genius?

Yeah I heard that too. Made the other person speaking (I forget who, was up to my neck in potty sound bonkers training, child entertaining and dinner cooking). The usual lines about the big bad EU treated us badly were trotted out. Sam Coates was intriguing.

Also noticed that they paid proper attention to the march in London today, even contrasting it with the poorly attended far right demo - which they literally said only a sentence about.

Cherrypi Teresa could be playing a blinder.

Or she could be a feather for every wind that blows. What was it Jeremy Paxman said? A blow hard that collapses at the first sign of gunfire?

Not sure that putting the wind up major business and costing loads of jobs 'genius' really. Nero comes to mind.

I know it's insanely naïve if me to say so, but here's my logic 54321.

TM voted remain, just about. She leans towards hard headed autocratic tendencies in delivering the job she has been tasked with - we saw that when she was home secretary. Eg get immigrant numbers down -> windrush catastrophe. I believe that she knows the Brexit the ERG are pushing for will destroy the UK as we know it, but they are vocal.
They do not shy away from blue on blue action the way the moderates do.
They don't play by the rules (eg. Leave campaign, JMR et al's company shifting to Ireland, Bojo and "fuck business").
But she must.
She is an autocrat.
She cannot tell them to sit the fuck down and play nicely, because she'll be for the chop. She must appear to appease them.

But Ireland. But the economy. But national security. But democracy.

As it stands, the fate of the UK rests in the hands of a small number of middle aged, angry, white men. And TM knows this (how can she not?) Men who can replace her.

She needs to show the UK public what Brexit means. Of course, Brexit means Brexit. It means loss of freedom, loss of progress, loss of income, loss of the foundation of our economy (thanks, Thatcher, you utter shite). Brexit is ignorance encapsulated.

She's been in the top tier of government to know all of this. I also think it's possible that the home office provides a particularly steep learning curve for those who gain a glimpse into corruption and backroom dealing in the highest echelons of our government.

So she has learnt how the game is played. And she knows that popular support must shift in order for her not to be the person who fucks the UK for decades.

The only way to get the popular vote to shift it to show it how fucking stupid and dangerous these men are. It means playing chicken with the EU, the public and the idiots in the ERG. It means daring to come across as shambolic to show these men up. They don't understand the ramifications of what they suggest (eg let's nationalise a multinational plane engineering thingy! It's possible if you just think positively and DONTYOUKNOWWHOWEARE). They're showing themselves up to be corrupt, dimwitted, fascistic fools. She just has to give them the platform so they can step into the noose.

I believe about 30% of that on days when the news isn't so bleak. The rest of the time I think our society's broken and there's no way we'll scrape through this with our dignity, wealth, and hope in tact.

Oh and to the pp who asked, Galba was the emperor after Nero. Nero was the final nail in the Julio-Claudian dynasty. He was emperor for less than year and was stabbed to death in a coup.

In this parallel, Nero is not TM. He's David Cameron.

God I hope you’re right Plonky.
I have occasional moments of hope that there is a plan and someone will guide us through without disaster. But then they say something so fucking stupid (like saying about nationalizing Airbus) that the creeping dread sets in that we’re all fucked and no one can save us now.

Off to down gin in my bunker of brexshit dispare.

I agree plonky

Some days I'm more hopeful than others...

Ginger pay very close attention to what TM actually says. She is the ultimate mouthpiece, and she has said nothing about nationalising Airbus. They were the words of someone behaving like a fanatic.

The substance of what TM actually says is scarcely there.

I'm sure that both the parliaments and the peoples of both Argentina and Venezuala kept on saying to themselves: "The Government wouldn't deliberately let the economy go down the pan " ..... until it actually happened

How easily the mighty can fall

That's probably closer to the truth, Pretty.

I wish I could get out of the UK.

What exactly are Argentina and Venezuela in world history compared to the UK? Scarcely more than an amoeba.

Muststop A50 is the prescribed way to leave the EU

So, it specifies that all parties should negotiate - and approve - a Withdrawal Agreement within the 2 year period which ends on 29 March 20196

This WA requires approval by the UK, the European Prliament, together with the European Council of Ministers (Govt heads of E27 countries) according to QMV (Qualified Majority Voting = a system of weighted votes according to population)

and defines:

1. "housekeeping issues" e.g. expats, outstanding bills, plus it should deal with miscellaneous issues e.g. NI border, membership of essential agencies, flights, EURATOM etc so that the leaving country can continue to function fairly normally until a final trade deal years later

and

2. A framework for the future relationship, especially trade, also any remaining agencies & projects in which the leaving country may wish to participate

• This is not a fully worked out deal, which may take several years to negotiate in detail, write legal text (2,000+ pages) & approve

3. Possibly define a transition period to run from Brexit Day , either for a limited period until say 31 Dec 2020, or to the start of the fully worked out new arrangement, which may be several years later.

AFTER Brexit, the EU would be able to negotiate a full trade deal with the UK

• such complex international trade negotiations typically take 5-15 years from start to approval. (not just for the EU; this length of time is typical of any trade deal that is not just immediate surrender by one side)

The EU cannot negotiate anything more than a framework before Brexit Day, because it cannot negotiate trade deals with its own members.

How easily the mighty can fall
And the modest can rise. Hello Scotland

Argentina in the early 20th century was a very rich 1st world country, with vast natural resources, a thriving economy and a stable government.
Their citizens were among the most fortunate and privileged in the world.

They made some very foolish decisions in the 1920s and 1930s which sent the country into a tailspin from which it has never recovered.

It is sometimes quoted as an example of how a rich 1st world country can squander everything and plummet into a permanent chaotic basket case.

UK - Parliamentary democracy. Venezuela - unicellular organism. Yes, that works.

Sorry, forgot Argentina.

MPs report 723 immigrants to Home Office in 'collusion' with government's 'hostile environment', figures reveal

Exclusive: ‘One can assume the MPs are meeting most of these people as constituents in their surgeries when they come in to ask for help or support,’ says advocate

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hostile-environment-imigration-mps-home-office-abuse-report-david-lammy-a8413111.html

The thing that's good about the 'brexit' is revealing how deep and egregious this cracker/brexist hatred is.

It's teaching a lot of us pink folks a little of what the crackers/brexists think and will do.

Not nice. But useful information for future reference.

Thank you for beautifully illustrating how easy it is for the mighty to fall Common

Argentina used to be one of the 10th richest economies in the world - on a par with the USA. A series of poor political and economic decisions led to its decline. Sound familiar?

https://www.ft.com/content/778193e4-44d8-11de-82d6-00144feabdc0

Venezuela is an oil rich country that is practically bankrupt after corruption and economic mismanagement.

Looking at previous empires, e.g. the Egyptian, Greek, Roman empires, it is notable how long they stayed at their peak
in comparison to the British Empire and what became an unofficial American Empire, but was called a superpower.

The pace of technological & social change means that rise and fall of great world powers is now in decades, instead of millennia or centuries