Westminstenders: Rebel or Reveal

[RedToothBrush]

The EU Withdrawal Bill made it through the Commons. Though May did not manage it unscathed.

In an attempt to divide and conquer the Rebels, May might have damaged trust. We shall find out. The Grieve Amendment faces the Lords. We also will see if the Lords will back down on their amendments or apply some new ones for the Commons to deal with in Parliamentary Ping Pong.

Aaron Banks has been exposed as being pally with the Russian Embassy in a plot twist that absolutely everyone saw coming.

Meanwhile the EU thinks we have already run out of time and is preparing options to extend talks beyond the a50 deadline. These include having MEPs for the 2019 - 2024 session.

There is also growing talk around Europe that freedom of movement in its current form is unsustainable. Ironically we might see the EU adopt something akin to Cameron's pre-referendum proposals as the EU reforms.

Theresa May has also announced - at a moment when she is looking particularly weak - a new tax for the NHS, cunningly disguised in spin as 'the Brexit dividend'. Of course shareholders don't always get dividends and at times of poor economic performance instead might be asked to stump up extra capital...Expect to see buses with £350 million of the side just in time for the next general election cycle.

And so the Zombie PM limbers on towards the end of the summer session and the relative safety of the summer holidays. More drama, cringing and disbelief guaranteed before we get there.

HeyDuggie Yes, without Russia's huge nuclear arsenal, they might well have been swatted away by now
However, MAD still reigns
Conventional forces can't combat nukes

In fact, the way to make Russia panic and use them, is if they feel too threatened by much larger aggressive armies on their Western borders.
Putin is a volatile egomaniac, rather like an intelligent version of Trump in some ways
Much better to keep the military situation calmed down

I have serious doubts now about the sanctions on Russia that the US and UK insisted the EU follow.

They are biting hard and Putin is under pressure, so more angry & unstable than ever
Hence the increase in Russian interference in several countries, e.g. hacking the German Parliament, spreading false news, trying to hack Macron's campaign

That won't end well - he is lashing out in desperate defence of his country, really.

The deterrence argument is bs in my opinion. Fewer countries have nukes that have them. Only two have ever been fired in war, both by the country that has reacted the most to other countries developing them.

They are a waste of human endeavour.

I think we should accept that the EU and UK have different aspirations, no need to be angry about that
We need a long transition, so that the break isn't painful.
45 years of deliberately intertwining trade, agencies etc can't be switched off like an App

What is unforgivable is the total hash the UK govt has made:
2 years since the ref and they are still negotiating among themselves, instead of with the EU

Theresa May should not have invoked A50 until she had ordered and received the impact assessments, then agreed a united policy with her cabinet.
That 2 years A50 limit is supposed to be negotiating only between the leaving country & the EU; it was never intended to be making your mind up time for the leavers

I am not sure where the idea of nuclear deterrence is going. We have some subs with warheads, whoop whoop. It's a deterrent. As Britain we don't need any more because if it comes to firing them the 'war' and most of Britain is already lost.
The EU is not after 'sovereignty' and all the EU countries would prevent the EU attempting to take it away from anyone. Although the Europeans are happy to work together for an overall improvement in peoples lives they will definitely not stand for anybody taking sovereignty away.

Commonarewe:
...the hundreds of millions of Europeans who offer their real opinions in polls and - most importantly - in the ballot box. You can't just wish them away. 59% of Italians don't want migrants landing on their shores, and they elected a government that is carrying out their wishes. Them's the facts

So - those hundreds of millions...

59% of Italians does not equal hundreds of millions of voters. I don't think the Germans who voted for AfD make up the shortfall. Maybe Hungary?

Perhaps we are talking about hundreds of millions of unicorns here.

math awesome observation.

The Italians, quite rightly don't want to have to support tens of thousands of migrants, so they are voting to get them 'removed'. What they are actually asking/demanding is for a good plan to be put in place so that migrants landing are looked after and dispersed or moved on and need assistance and agreement with the rest of Europe on how to do this. Perfectly reasonable request. I would expect any individual country to come up with similar figures.

That 2% defence spending target is only reached now by including pensions

Trident does hog the rather meagre UK defence budget
It sends a big wodge out to the US, which services them - the US doesn't directly control Trident, but if a President decided to stop the servicing, reports say it would become unusable, maybe before the end of his term of office ?

We need a sensible debate - without emotion - about what would give us the most appropriate bang for the military buck / pound,
that we can afford within the overall National Budget
The problem with nukes is they can't be used in the normal everyday defence that the country needs: ships, aircraft, helicopters, tanks, infantry

We could even have a referendum about Trident
but say what the savings would be and what we'd spend it on: how much for conventional military, how much for NHS etc

Ah yes. Sheer force of numbers behind a proposition always makes it right.

Now there's a blind alley if ever there was one.

Thanks for making your contempt for democracy quite so plain.

@JulieOwenMoylan
Great news Brexiters..
Javid has decided we cant afford UK only lanes at British arrival ports. That means we will queue to get into EU27 countries and have huge queues to get back in our own country. (ST today)

NO SHORTCUTS Brits WON’T get a shorter passport queue after Brexit and will still have to share a line with EU citizens

Sajid Javid has reportedly concluded it would be too expensive to set up separate queues at airports

www.thesun.co.uk/news/6553146/brits-wont-get-a-shorter-passport-queue-after-brexit-and-will-still-have-to-share-a-line-with-eu-citizens/

Maybe Rentoul was right?

Sajid Javid has reportedly concluded it would be too expensive to set up separate queues at airports

Perhaps we could use some of that Brexit Dividend to fund our speshul doughty British wonder-people lanes

Migration - specifically Middle East & North African muslim migration - is a very big issue in Europe.
Migration of other EU nationals is not.

Italy has had political turmoil over the 50 years that I have been following current affairs
imo the Mafia worsen the situation, with all the corruption and endemic organised crime

The former DDR is especially fertile territory for rabble-rousers, because they are still recovering from decades of poverty, mismanagement and state-sanctioned xenophobia under USSR dictatorship
Merkel has changed policy, but is still trying to tighten borders humanely - a true vicar's daughter

If the EU sorts out the migration problem, then the discontent, despite all Putin's efforts will die down.
There are not the fundamental objections to the EU that many UK leavers instinctively feel

Most other Europeans, especially the young, feel there is a European demos to which they belong (and some think - to which Muslims don't)

@Common, you were quoting opinion polls, not real vote type results. We ALL want unicorns, most accept you can't have them.
UK lanes at ports and passport control because it is too expensive. The finances must be bad if the relatively few millions can't be found.
Bet there's an 'executives channel' though.

BigChoc - well, quite. The European demos was apparently under the impression that they belonged to a European Union, not a European/Middle Eastern/African/Central Asian/WhoTheFuckKnows Union, which many open borders types seem to prefer.

I've said before that I think Javid would be an excellent Tory leader
He is unusual (but not unique) in the Cabinet of being entirely self-made from very humble beginnings
He is highly intelligent and made his own career in business; made his own money instead of just marrying it.

I suspect members wouldn't elect him, but if he's versus a Remainer, they could yet surprise us
More likely, the next leader will be annointed, or at least selected by MPs only, like May

It would be amazing if they produce not just the first non-white PM, but the 1st Muslim PM - as they have produced the 1st two women PMs

It might give Trump a fatal apoplexy too, to be greeted by Labour's Khan and the Tory"s Javid

I agree with above on migration/ racism weaponisation BCF it makes very little sense to me having gone to a very financially poor very multicultural english council estate comp, in the 1970s. It makes absolutely no sense to current youngsters. The 'race card' is a big fat lie and people know it.

Leavers will have to 'suck it up' ; their little moment has passed.

Tweet from ex civil servant, on state sponsored NHS porkies:

@jillongovt
is this a legit use of official press offices @HeadUKCivServ - given the @OBR_UK view on the impact of #brexit on public finances...

NHS fibs going down very badly. It's almost as if no one trusts this regime.

Nearly all Europeans btw, have little objection to Muslims who integrate well and make a success of themselves
However, I have noticed in the UK that many on the right pick on not just Sadiq Khan, but also Javid when he became Home Sec
He is a damn sight better than the one before last.

Back to Brexit …

Christopher Booker: Businesses still haven't woken up to the calamity of Theresa May's decision to leave the single market

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/16/businesses-still-havent-woken-calamity-theresa-mays-decision/

Cannier businesses such as Jaguar Land Rover, major pharmaceutical companies and foreign-owned banks have woken up to the implications of Theresa May’s decision to exclude ourselves from the regulatory system that allows them to trade in the single market.
They are quietly making their dispositions accordingly, by relocating key parts of their operations to the continent.

But the vast majority of businesses that rely on trade with our largest export market still have no idea of what could soon be hitting them.
When my expert colleague Richard North and I last week tried to explain this to the senior executives of one major company that will be seriously affected, we were airily told, “Oh, this could never happen.”
…
Others such as the aerospace industry worth £74 billion a year, including Airbus, may at last be waking up to the devastating consequences of our decision to leave the single market.
But when the aviation manufacturers association, representing 1,000 firms, recently sent an appeal to Michel Barnier, all they could ask for was a special deal to allow them to continue trading with the EU, on terms which Barnier has already made clear the rules could not possibly allow.

As long as Javid cuts my taxes, defends my borders, and conducts himself like a British patriot, I wouldn't have the slightest difficulty in voting for him as the next Conservative leader. It's almost as if a politician's identity were not the most important thing about him - shocking!

The internet is now the most efficient way to destabilise a country.
And it has been done with great success in the U.K. with Brexit (remember the bots?) as well as the US.

"cuts my taxes, defends my borders"

Tax-cutting leads to service-cutting, since the easy fat has long since been cut
Adding administrators to cut waste just adds administrators to the problem and makes services even more cumbersome

The Uk keeps demanding expensive services, such as European standard health care, but also demands tax cuts
So something else we need a national debate on:
with Truthful figures about what everything costs, so the 2 parties can put forward different choices in their manifestos

There is NO free lunch

But the vast majority of businesses that rely on trade with our largest export market still have no idea of what could soon be hitting them.

Tbh I think there is a lot of head in the sand going in because these are often businesses that just can’t afford ‘to get ready’ Seeing that getting ready often means moving some or all of the business in the EU.

As a sole trader, I dint have nothing in place for Brexit. I can only cross fingers for things to not be as bad as experts say it will be. Because my clients are local to me. I can’t move my business unless I am happy to just move back to Europe and start from scratch again....

How is cutting taxes patriotic?

How is cutting taxes patriotic?

If you need to ask...

commonarewe Sun 17-Jun-18 20:31:01
"Ah yes. Sheer force of numbers behind a proposition always makes it right."
"Now there's a blind alley if ever there was one."

Thanks for making your contempt for democracy quite so plain.

I am a big fan of democracy.

I have a problem with people suggesting there are hundreds of millions of fascists all over Europe so that makes fascism OK.