Westminstenders: Rebel or Reveal

[RedToothBrush]

The EU Withdrawal Bill made it through the Commons. Though May did not manage it unscathed.

In an attempt to divide and conquer the Rebels, May might have damaged trust. We shall find out. The Grieve Amendment faces the Lords. We also will see if the Lords will back down on their amendments or apply some new ones for the Commons to deal with in Parliamentary Ping Pong.

Aaron Banks has been exposed as being pally with the Russian Embassy in a plot twist that absolutely everyone saw coming.

Meanwhile the EU thinks we have already run out of time and is preparing options to extend talks beyond the a50 deadline. These include having MEPs for the 2019 - 2024 session.

There is also growing talk around Europe that freedom of movement in its current form is unsustainable. Ironically we might see the EU adopt something akin to Cameron's pre-referendum proposals as the EU reforms.

Theresa May has also announced - at a moment when she is looking particularly weak - a new tax for the NHS, cunningly disguised in spin as 'the Brexit dividend'. Of course shareholders don't always get dividends and at times of poor economic performance instead might be asked to stump up extra capital...Expect to see buses with £350 million of the side just in time for the next general election cycle.

And so the Zombie PM limbers on towards the end of the summer session and the relative safety of the summer holidays. More drama, cringing and disbelief guaranteed before we get there.

But still, I don't really trust them to do the same after another GE.

Well now the electoral benefits of blatant lying have demonstrated, neither do I.

I wonder if the continued pisspoor performance of UKIP - last confirmed in May - has also influenced Mays thinking (or whoever is advising her).

Now they're effectively back in their box, there's a chance that the Tory->UKIP->Tory voters (and that's a special type of stupid) will stick to Tory. Which strengthens Mays hand against the Brexiteers, as the fear of UKIP recedes.

Something is up. ("That's funny sir, because we didn't place any orders for trench-climbing ladders, but a dozen were delivered yesterday ...")

Has anyone had any whistles delivered today ?

LH i really hope things are going to settle down for you

I keep banging on about business confidence and trust. Both of those have been 'blown out of the water' in all this fiasco so others, outside the UK have no reason to believe anything which is said. Apart from immediate costs, companies will need a lot of persuasion to stay, and even more to think of new investments in the UK.
Many governments are 'economical with the truth' but for a PM to say one thing at breakfast and to be shot down by her own party by lunchtime in ways that are 'verifiable' is getting beyond silly. (yesterday NHS).

Many governments are 'economical with the truth' but for a PM to say one thing at breakfast and to be shot down by her own party by lunchtime in ways that are 'verifiable' is getting beyond silly.

Or into sinister ?

After all, what's the truth ? And in an atmosphere like we currently have, who can tell ?

It's a myth that totalitarian regimes operate with a vice like efficiency. More often than not they thrive in a climate of confusion, secrecy, unwritten rules, and uncertain instructions. They are chaotic - that's their modus operandi.

....but Do we think peston is right?...

...but do we think peston is right?...

It fits my suggestion. (Or is that vice versa ?).

I think the question of a GE in the autumn is inextricably tied up with the question of Theresa May as Tory leader. The only way I could see an autumn election is with Theresa May as leader. If she isn't - by whatever means - then no GE. I can't see a newly appointed leader wanting to risk the will of the people (when they already have it).

Again, Theresa May has managed to achieve something simply by hanging on so long. As long as there is no clear and acceptable replacement, she's in an incredibly powerful position. And each passing day seems to have seem a tiny bit less from the JRMs and BoJos of this world. on our screens. It's hard to avoid the suggestion that "peak Brexit" has ... well peaked ... and any Brexiteer threats have been shown to be hollow.

Personally, I have found it incredibly frustrating that the 50/50 remain/leave split has done this to our country. However, as with evolution, nature finds a way. If Brexiteers can't harm Theresa May (as is looking more and more the case) then she has some latitude. Which might suggest the NHS card being played. Bearing in mind it was a Brexit pledge. I would be less than surprised if the past few days haven't been a bit of flagpole saluting, testing the public appetite for a tax-funded boost for the NHS.

Personally, I don't get the way Tories see Corbyn as the antichrist. But if they do, and are willing to be maneuvered into compromises as a result, then it's their own stupidity.

DGR I agree.
Also why bother with the truth if people just believe what you say and forget that you’ve just said the opposite 2 days ago?

Any Fortean Times fans here ?

This months edition has an article on the Mandela effect. And Kit-Kats.

I wonder if a vote could be arranged to cancel brexit while the brightest and best are watching men kick balls about?

Barnier has said we cannot stay in the European Arrest warrant.

Pre-referendum, before the "no one warned us" wails start.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/05/why-brexit-would-make-the-uk-less-secure/

I wonder if a vote could be arranged to cancel brexit while the brightest and best are watching men kick balls about?

trollbots are quieter during play ... those online gaming scams won't run themselves.

The Mandela Effect is really fascinating.

woman that may only work during an England game and even then by voting you'd show you we're unpatriotic. Not that being Scottish, Welsh or Northern Irish of course would matter, you'd still be unpatriotic

Another election with TM in charge? Remember the last one - and how badly (for her) that went? Would any tory want an election with her in charge?

ID cards - the problem is that those who know NOTHING about IT will keep trying to add things on to it. And in the grand procession of failed IT projects this will be another winner or exemplar of how not to do ID cards. A 'simple' ID of photo, name, DOB could work. But not sure how it will reduce crime? Failure to produce/carry and you get banged up? Has a RFid chip in it so we always tracked ... and other Dystopian nightmares ...

The Mandela Effect is really fascinating.

Do you remember, back in 2016, when the UK left the EU ? No one saw that coming ....

Another election with TM in charge? Remember the last one - and how badly (for her) that went? Would any tory want an election with her in charge?

Ah, but calling a GE is the one - and maybe only - thing Theresa May can do without needing anything from anyone. She needs no permission. There is no way the decision can be appealed or reversed in any court. The only way it could not happen would be if her Madge declined to dissolve parliament. (And, quite frankly, I think she might jump at the chance ).

The elders of the Tory party might counsel otherwise. But given that means such luminaries as Ian Duncan Smith, and Michael Howard, I think it's safe to say there's not too much gravitas there.

Admittedly once a GE has been triggered, May could fall victim to a leadership challenge. But that would just lead to history arguing over whether it was the suicide pill, the bullet or the 100ft fall that killed the patient.

ID cards - the problem is that those who know NOTHING about IT will keep trying to add things on to it.

cf DNA innit ? [1] as a reason that this time the death penalty won't be a problem.

[1] paraphrasing Priti Patel on QT a while back.

Surely the tories will been having pretty extensive media training in the last few months and I see no evidence of that.

Shes a liability

Surely the tories will been having pretty extensive media training in the last few months and I see no evidence of that.

Maybe it's a double bluff ? After all, Labour are hardly the threat they seemed to be this time last year. All Corbyn has managed to do is piss off the wrong people.

And let's remember the last election was so snap, the ToryBunker had to order leaflets from France. And still didn't lost completely.

Another question to the ether ....

If there were to be a general election in the autumn ... what would that mean for the vote tomorrow ? Or, to flip it. Does it matter what the outcome of any HoC vote is tomorrow, if there's a GE in autumn ?

In some respects - like religion - Brexit is a gift that keeps giving in politics. I think there's a fundamental split between Tories who think that Brexit is essential for the continued well being of the Tory party. However, there's also quite a few people who think the opposite. That Brexit will define the implosion of the Tory party. The fact they are all Tories does rather underscore the proud boast of the Tories as being the party of the people encompassing diversity, rather than letting any old riffraff in.

trollbots are quieter during play
Exactly. Although I'm sure we're not the only ones who've spotted an opportunity for mischief while the blokes ball watch. I see Germans and Norwegian soldiers are practising urban warfare techniques, just in case.......

54321go Surely the Gibraltar/Spanish border is the same position as Eire/NI?

No. Ireland and the UK (of which NI is a constituent part) are both currently EU member states.

Gibraltar is a British overseas territory, and part of the EU through the UK. However, only certain things apply to Gibraltar. It is outside the customs union and VAT area and is exempted from the Common Agricultural Policy.

Furthermore, the EU are taking into account the provisions of the GFA and are willing to give a special status to NI. Ireland as a member state are willing to intercede for the GFA, the many Irish people of NI (majority voted remain) and the situation of the all island economy. Economies of scale are significant. It is not like Gibraltar.

There was a referendum in Gibraltar in 2002 about sharing sovereignty with Spain. The result was around 98% NO.

ID cards
The UK could just copy what some other countries do. You could get another countries 'experts' who do them already to be a contractor.
I am sure that China, Russia or the USA will have some experts who can help. There was a time when leaving Gov laptops on the train/car seats was almost standard practice, seeing as how many went missing. See also memory sticks.

There was a referendum in Gibraltar in 2002 about sharing sovereignty with Spain. The result was around 98% NO.

Probably because they thought they could have their cake (sovereignty with the UK) and eat it (enjoy all that lovely EU goodness).

Now the balloon has gone up, it seems they'd much rather have the EU goodness than be part of the UK (see also Scotland).

The difference with Scotland, is that explicit pledges were made by all three Westminster parties about staying in the EU as part of the UK.

I highlight that, as it demonstrates how "serious" Westminster was trying to be to stave off a Yes vote. It's why I would support a fresh independence referendum, were it to be something I could influence.

So roughly speaking the EU made concessions the the UK to allow special treatment of Gibraltar which I am assuming does not 'make' a sufficient quantity of goods to make 'hard' border controls worthwhile?