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Brexit

Westminstenders: Rebel or Reveal

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/06/2018 10:14

The EU Withdrawal Bill made it through the Commons. Though May did not manage it unscathed.

In an attempt to divide and conquer the Rebels, May might have damaged trust. We shall find out. The Grieve Amendment faces the Lords. We also will see if the Lords will back down on their amendments or apply some new ones for the Commons to deal with in Parliamentary Ping Pong.

Aaron Banks has been exposed as being pally with the Russian Embassy in a plot twist that absolutely everyone saw coming.

Meanwhile the EU thinks we have already run out of time and is preparing options to extend talks beyond the a50 deadline. These include having MEPs for the 2019 - 2024 session.

There is also growing talk around Europe that freedom of movement in its current form is unsustainable. Ironically we might see the EU adopt something akin to Cameron's pre-referendum proposals as the EU reforms.

Theresa May has also announced - at a moment when she is looking particularly weak - a new tax for the NHS, cunningly disguised in spin as 'the Brexit dividend'. Of course shareholders don't always get dividends and at times of poor economic performance instead might be asked to stump up extra capital...Expect to see buses with £350 million of the side just in time for the next general election cycle.

And so the Zombie PM limbers on towards the end of the summer session and the relative safety of the summer holidays. More drama, cringing and disbelief guaranteed before we get there.

OP posts:
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Buteo · 18/06/2018 22:12

My bad, you’re right BigChoc on the ratio - and it was Anglo American loans (I think) the U.K. paid off in 2006.

Marshall Plan was different for Germany though?

BigChocFrenzy · 18/06/2018 22:12

It's not patriotic to encourage your country to further stupidity and to gloss over what happened after previous stupidity caused by the same delusion.

One would not encourage a child or other loved one to keep repeating the same serious mistake
One would point out what happened the last time and encourage the child to learn from it

The UK is being treated by some Leavers as if it were a snowflake of a country, which can never have its errors pointed out, but can only be praised.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/06/2018 22:18

Germany had bad debts from pre-WW2, which Hitler had reneged on.

In the early 1950s, the new German govt decided the country's economy had recovered sufficiently to restart repayments of those debts, in order to help rebuild the national reputation.

iirc, some Marshall Aid for Germany was used to really stretch out these loans and make the terms very easy.
Especially since the German Economic Miracle had started, Germany easily paid these off, before the end of the century

However, a lot of the Marshall Aid to Germany was grants, i.e. gifts, as well.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/06/2018 22:21

I think some of the Uk repayments, which finally finished in 2006, were indeed repaying the generous Marshall Aid loans.
However, afaik, it was the loans during WW2 for war equipment etc from the USA (& Canada) which formed the bulk of money owed

BigChocFrenzy · 18/06/2018 22:31

I posted something similar on an earlier thread, but useful to remind ourselves why the EU has reason to mistrust the UK over database confidentiality
and hence why they won't break the rules about 3d countries, just to keep the same security cooperation post-Brexit:

The Uk has misused information in the past that it has received from Europol databases

It has also confused the data,
so that it sometimes arrested innocent people who have never come to anyone's attention
and let flagged suspects go by
It has copied the false data, distributed it around the UK and left it unsecured

https://euobserver.com/justice/141919

The United Kingdom has been illegally copying classified personal information from a database reserved for members of the passport-free Schengen travel zone.
It has shared the information with US companies and it is demanding to keep access to the database after it leaves the EU next year.

commonarewe · 18/06/2018 22:37

The UK used the money to quash nationalist rebellions all over the Empire.

Swap "The EU in 2018" for "The UK post-WW2" and the irony is delicious! Grin

commonarewe · 18/06/2018 22:47

iirc loans during WW2, taken out when the Uk was nearly bankrupt, were not on such generous terms and also had other conditions attached, such as opening up formerly closed markets within the British Empire to US businesses.

Yes, some reward we received for exhausting our blood and treasure fighting real Nazis (clue: these ones weren't concerned citizens who just wanted to control their borders). What exactly would Europe be today without our sacrifices? But no, Germany's always right.... right?

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 18/06/2018 22:52

There's some super strength kool-aid about again folks.

frankiestein401 · 18/06/2018 23:42

what exactly would europe be today without the sacrifices of the polish, the russians, the commonwealth?

On balance Germany has been more right since ww2 than the uk - they've risen to top dog in europe without squandering a north sea oil bounty, without destroying manufacturing, without nurturing a bunch of offshore money launderettes and despite reunification. (they've been consistently better at penalties too. )

commonarewe · 19/06/2018 00:03

On balance Germany has been more right since ww2 than the uk - they've risen to top dog in europe without squandering a north sea oil bounty, without destroying manufacturing, without nurturing a bunch of offshore money launderettes and despite reunification. (they've been consistently better at penalties too. )

And locking southern Europe into an unbreakable debtors' prison, and returning the far right to power across Europe thanks to their witless Gutmenschheit...

tava63 · 19/06/2018 00:14

Perhaps if those negotiating the Treaty of Versailles after the tragedy of World War 1 listened to organisations such as the Women's International League for Peace and Freedom "who sent five envoys to Paris to convey to the statesmen their dismay at the Terms of the Treaty stating that it would
‘…deny the principles of self-determination, recognise the right of victors to the spoils of war and create all over Europe discords and animosities which can only lead to future wars.’ " www.wilpf.org.uk/history/criticising-the-versailles-treaty/ there would never have been a Second World War.

lonelyplanetmum · 19/06/2018 06:38

I am still pondering the payment to the NHS. Why announce it now before the next budget?

Why call it a Brexit dividend? Is it..
a) A gesture to prepare us all for the hardest of Brexits and the years of sacrifice and tax rises to pay for that.

b) An attempt at meeting 'the will of the people' before delivering BINO.

The resistance to the Lords and Grieve's amendment makes me think it must be (a).

Buteo · 19/06/2018 07:00

On aviation:

The European commission is refusing to agree to any back-channel discussions between UK and EU aviation agencies to avert a crisis in the event of a “no-deal” outcome to Brexit.

At the strike of midnight in Brussels on 29 March 2019, when Britain leaves the EU, UK-made parts for planes will no longer be legally valid and its pilot licences will be defunct in the eyes of international regulators acting under agreements with the bloc.

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/18/aviation-industry-eu-blocks-talks-to-avert-no-deal-brexit-crisis

Cherrypi · 19/06/2018 07:01

I was wondering it that too lonely. I’m also wondering what they will bury while everyone’s distracted by the football. Our local mp is taking part in a brexit debate in our town church. Should be interesting. He’s a firm brexiteer.

mathanxiety · 19/06/2018 07:05

The UK used the money to quash nationalist rebellions all over the Empire.
Swap "The EU in 2018" for "The UK post-WW2" and the irony is delicious! [Commonarewe]

What irony would that be, Commonarewe?
The irony of the British taxpayer forking over £1bn to the DUP so that the Tory government can stay in power?
The fact that even though NI voted Remain it must leave and lose all the subsidies and the Regional Fund money, and the ready-made market that it enjoyed, and watch helplessly as its agriculture and food processing industries are decimated?
The irony of Wales, a net winner - and a big winner actually - when it comes to EU largesse, voting Leave, ditto Cornwall, then then expecting the same cash cow to materialise regardless?

The basic proposition of the Marshall Plan worked - widespread prosperity brought about political stability. It appears to be the case that in the UK widespread bribery is keeping the ship of state afloat. This is not a tenable answer to pressing political and economic questions, and nor is much further intervention by the Bank of England to prop up the £ a possibility.

....

The far right has returned to power across Europe? Really?

......
What exactly would Europe be today without our sacrifices?
Iirc, the Red Army and the population of the western USSR took quite a hit too but heyho.

You realise that the Leave diehards are lining up to get into bed with the same country that extracted a nice big pound of flesh when Britain had her back to the wall - and that this was at a time when both states had faced the same enemy shoulder to shoulder? How long did it take to repay the Anglo American Loan of 1946 - until 2006?
(This is the same US had abruptly and without warning ended Lend Lease, which was basically supporting the British economy, in 1945).

Y'all better get used to a lot of cap doffing, and cap extending in a horizontal direction.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-American_loan
Agreement
Terms
John Maynard Keynes, then in poor health and shortly before his death, was sent by the United Kingdom to the United States and Canada to obtain more funds.[5] British politicians expected that in view of the United Kingdom's contribution to the war effort, especially for the lives lost before the United States entered the fight in 1941, America would offer favorable terms. Instead of a grant or a gift, however, Keynes was offered a loan on favorable terms.

Historian Alan Sked has commented that, "the U.S. didn't seem to realize that Britain was bankrupt", and that the loan was "denounced in the House of Lords, but in the end the country had no choice."[6] America offered $US 3.75bn (US$51 billion in 2018) and Canada contributed another US$1.19 bn (US$16 billion in 2018), both at the rate of 2% annual interest.[7] The total amount repaid, including interest, was $7.5bn (£3.8bn) to the US and US$2bn (£1bn) to Canada.[8][9]

The loan was made subject to conditions, the most damaging of which was the convertibility of sterling.[10] Though not the intention, the effect of convertibility was to worsen British post-war economic problems. International sterling balances became convertible one year after the loan was ratified, on 15 July 1947. Within a month, nations with sterling balances (e.g. pounds which they had earned from buying British exports, and which they were now permitted to sell to Britain in exchange for dollars) had drawn almost a billion dollars from British dollar reserves, forcing the British government to suspend convertibility and to begin immediate drastic cuts in domestic and overseas expenditure. The rapid loss of dollar reserves also highlighted the weakness of sterling, which was duly devalued in 1949 from $4.02 to $2.80.[11]

In later years, the term of 2% interest was rather less than the prevailing market interest rates, resulting in it being described as a "very advantageous loan" by members of the British government, as elaborated below.

Loan spending
Much of the loan had been earmarked for foreign military spending to maintain the United Kingdom's empire and payments to British allies prior to its passage, which had been concealed in negotiations through to the summer of 1946.[12] Keynes had noted that a failure to pass the loan agreement would cause Britain to abandon its military outposts in the Middle Eastern, Asian and Mediterranean regions, as the alternative of reducing British standards of living was politically unfeasible. [13]

Repayment
The last payment was made on 29 December 2006 for the sum of about $83m (£45.5m), the 29th being the last working day of the year.[2][4][14] The final payment was actually six years late, the British Government having suspended payments due in the years 1956, 1957, 1964, 1965, 1968 and 1976 because the exchange rates were seen as impractical.[15] After this final payment Britain's Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Ed Balls, formally thanked the US for its wartime support.

Irony alert - the US made the UK pay interest on a loan that was to be used to prop up America's policy as the Cold War took hold.

America is always right...right?

.....
And locking southern Europe into an unbreakable debtors' prison
Conflation of the Euro and the EU is a predictable characteristic of our Visitors.

The animosity toward the Euro and toward the EU is based on certain fixed ideas:
Once a German Nazi, always a German Nazi.
The British couldn't possibly be fascists.

FYI - wrt 'debtors' prisons - www.statista.com/statistics/269684/national-debt-in-eu-countries-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/

Remarkably, Ireland is doing better than the UK here despite surviving an economic blowout of epic proportions with a little help from her friends in the Bundesbank. The UK is sitting pretty between the average for the EU and that of the (separate entity...) Eurozone.

mrsreynolds · 19/06/2018 07:09

So....

Back again to parliament tomorrow?
The rebels won't take TM at her word this time

woman11017 · 19/06/2018 07:16

Back again to parliament tomorrow
They're playing her song! Grin
twitter.com/hamishjohnhenry/status/1008781656038232064

Motheroffourdragons · 19/06/2018 07:31

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

mrsreynolds · 19/06/2018 07:32

Ffs

mrsreynolds · 19/06/2018 07:33

....fool me once....

Plonkysaurus · 19/06/2018 07:42

So while we hash out the politics of the day, this is what's going on in the 6th wealthiest country in the world in 2018.

Primary school children affected by hygiene poverty, charity finds

www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/19/primary-school-children-affected-by-hygiene-poverty-charity-finds

mrsreynolds · 19/06/2018 07:46

In our school there are kids whose uniform obv hasn't been washed since Xmas...

The clothes have that grey, shiny sheen to them...

They are also the kids whose hair is dirty/have nits.

And the ones we sneak second helping of lunch to as we know it'll be their only meal that day...

I remember this in the 70s...

How far we've come?....

woman11017 · 19/06/2018 08:07

Have the brexist vulture capitalists already won? They are bombing the economy to the point that whatever happens, their profits are already through the roof? No matter when we manage to stop brexit.............

How far we've come
During the darkest days of WW2, I wonder how many children were attending school dirty and hungry, how many homeless people were dying on the streets, murder rate of women stuck in DA relationshiops (cos of no refuges/social security) going up etc etc.

If the state wanted to protect the physical health of the populace, it could, and did.

Peregrina · 19/06/2018 08:17

I’m also wondering what they will bury while everyone’s distracted by the football.

After the German v. Mexico game two nights ago, the BBC switched to a piece about the England team being due to play in Volgagrad, once Stalingrad, where the WW2 siege was highlighted including the numbers dead - so maybe the footie fans might take something in. I see England won their match last night.

54321go · 19/06/2018 09:10

Going back a little bit.
Germany, France and the UK have never stopped Greece, Spain Italy (for example) having 'heavy industry' that earns the country massive wealth, it is the presence of raw materials, in the past, iron ore and coal.
As far as I am aware Greece has no mineral 'wealth' to make the production practicable. Unfortunately I can't think of much 'geological' or environmental wealth that Greece can manage apart from olive growing and sunny holidays. While this is obviously a vast oversimplification the reality is people want 'stuff' be it cars, Fridges or whatever. Germany stereotypically likes to do things well and efficiently and is prepared to put a lot of RnD into getting the 'best'. Entrepreneurs in Britain are equal or not far behind but there seems to be less understanding and assistance to achieve the 'greater good' so investment is harder to find. The Victorians had it and achieved because the government was less restrictive of individual projects especially if it could be presented as enhancing the Empire. Rhodesia (Zimbabwe) was not of real interest to Britain apart from being the biggest world source of copper which was rather handy to make electric cables and Britain did not have significant copper in it's own territory. Look at the Falkland Islands, a pretty small Island a LONG way from Britain. Britain wants to keep it for the 'oil rights' to the sea around it.

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