Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

[RedToothBrush]

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

----------------------

Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

----------------------

What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

plonky I also grew up poor and received totally free uni with adequate maintenance grants: STEM Bsc, Msc, PhD
I left uni without debt.
I even was funded via the Msc in switching drastically from pure theory in my Bsc to a much more practical field for jobs in my PhD

I realise that this help was the foundation of the comfortable life I have now,
the greater options and freedom to choose emigration as I did,
to choose my pt since age 60,
to choose early retirement on decent pensions soon,

instead of living hand to mouth and working ft until I drop

I did not do it all myself.
I would have a totally different life & prospects without this state help

• no financial support for Uni possible from a disabled widowed mum, no inheritance I would NOT have taken on Uni debt when I knew I would have mum to support for years too

That's the reality for about the bottom 25% now:
Trapped, with so much less opportunity than my generation had.
We should at least acknowledge it, even those who are not prepared to pay the taxes to help the younger generations

I am so grateful now to the 2 generations before me, who voted for policies which took me out of poverty and enabled me to create my comfortable life.

My dad was a student (and then junior) doctor in the early 70s. I remember going with him when he was doing locums in the Gorbals (before they were demolished/refurbished) and being shocked to see people living in houses with broken windows and the kids running around almost literally in rags. I was left in the car while he went in to do house visits, so I would see the kids playing in the streets.

It's thanks to BigChocFrenzy and not thanks to our education system that I learnt how the UK squandered its Marshall Aid money (it got by far the most of all the European countries) on trying to hold on to the disintegrating Empire, rather than, like Germany and France, re-building industry and infrastructure fit for the 20th (and 21st ) century.

And yet instead of blaming the UK Government for its hubris, the Brexiters blame the rest of Europe for not staying stuck in the past moving on, working together and generally refusing to recognise the UK's perception of self-importance and "don't they know who we are?"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/29/brexit-disaster-economic-data-uk-eu?CMP=sharebtnn_fb

But it's only in the Guardian. The Tories are still increasing in polls.

I try to see the other point of view I really do, but the reality is that real wages in the UK are still 6.5% below where they were a whole decade ago, just before that recession started and all the indicators are pointing downwards unlike those remaining in the EU.

The time may have come to leave, who knows, but that time isn't now. The right PM would have been anyone who had the guts to say that.

unlike you I remember life before the EU
I got this a lot from my DPs. The worst is when it comes from my DM who doesn't remember the UK from before the EU, she remembers ROI - and her life was anything but decent then. She has made issue of how much the EU has given ROI, and looking back I've realised she's actually very jealous that her younger siblings and the generations below got more opportunities than she did.

My DF was fortunate enough to have been middle class so doesn't remember the shit times as being that shit, but then this continues now and doesn't get that there are people out there who are really poor. Well at least he views it as their fault if they are.

@Lonely those photos are fascinating/horrifying. I'm a part time photographer and I've been considering getting out on the streets to try to capture some of the madness of our times.

With careful camera angle and photographed in black and white some of the pictures could be my house now (!) but it would improve if I switched this darn computer with MN on it off and get painting.
From the last posts by Choc and Pretty, if Labour had campaigned with 'What the EU does for us' with real facts it should have blown the 'leave' idea right out of the water. I suppose the trouble is that the government, of any flavour, is too busy 'fiddling' with the numbers so no one knows what the real situation is.
The departure process seems to be treading water for a few days, when is the next deadline?

Oh dear just seen my mistyping of educational
And I’m normally such a careful proofreader...

So many own goals by the remain campaign.

Garage's disgusting migrant poster was a stroke of (evil) genius. Those who are inclined to racism agree with his stance on immigration just needed the visual. They didn't give a shiny one about the furore it caused.

Remain had no such visually striking message, because, to so many, the status quo leaves a lot to be desired.

They ran a lazy campaign and didn't fight at all.

Plonky-you could take some sign of our times photos at the march on the 23rd June.

I'm hoping that it will get increased media attention. Reporting it at all will make a change, although some how this time I think there may be more coverage.

@lonelyplanetmum

I think it would be very easy to find scenes like that in Britain today. The last 45 years have not been paradise for lots of people. I grew up on a council estate in Liverpool in the 1980s with a family on benefits. At least back then we had a home. These days housing is a huge issue for poor and even middle class families. In parts of the country a secure council house to raise your family is as far off a dream as being able to buy a house. I'm not fooled by tabloid press and government into thinking this is the fault of the EU and immigrants, I know where the blame belongs.

Yes extraordinary nostalgia. My parents in their 80s voted remain; my mother in law slightly younger voted Leave. My parents in law always loved France and went there every year. I think part of my mother in law's thinking was actually nostalgia for Europe before the UK joined the EU. That and the immigrants of course. If they can't in the future get the cleaners, gardeners and personal carers who allow them to stay in their large house in the middle of nowhere, many of whom so far have been EU migrants, I would have to be very nonconfrontational not to tell her as she faces the upheaval of moving that she has got exactly what she wanted. (I won't, she has dementia and it would only distress her. But I do wish a tiny bit that cognitive testing before voting was needed).

Yes Kenn I agree there is poverty now too disproportionately so for what was the fifth richest country in the world. Ironically the EU, unlike specific governments has funded specific help to the struggling areas of the U.K.

Those 1960's and 70's photos are simply a concise answer to the very frequent illogical assertion that it will be all unicorns and cake if only we could return to our pre Common Market days,with a declining manufacturing based economy.

Sorry typos I meant ...

Ironically the EU, unlike successive governments has funded specific help to the struggling areas of the U.K

But according to the guardian - some of the rebels are going to vote with the govt on Tue/Wed in a bid to stave off a Boris leadership bid.

I've developed an "and ?" response to this.

It's looking increasing irrelevant what parliament does - or does not - vote for. Even the UK parliament cannot legislate to make the impossible, possible. They may as well legislate to abolish gravity.

Ultimately, all the UK can legislate on is what the UK can do. It can try and pass a law that says the EU must do this, that or the other. It could even get Royal Assent. But the crunch will come when the UK turns up at EU HQ with it's law saying "we've just passed a law that says you must keep us in , we're not paying for and as for that's right out".

I am vaguely reminded of the earlier days of the internet when ordinary Americans were allowed onto the internet (if you thought Brexiteers were thick ...). The number of times I was asked "what state is the UK in, so I can sue your ass" (online debate was more robust then ).

So let them pass their little law. Then let them try to enact it.

The photos were certainly interesting but to me they raise a whole string of questions.
Many show people smoking.
Some of the furniture and fireplace styles I recognise.
Although not actually of 'value' but if the rooms were tidier or arranged differently would they look 'less poor'?
Were the people shown at least moderately well fed and apart from aspirations of having 'more' were they essentially 'contented' if not happy?
If you have a 'nice house', 2 cars, more food than you can eat etc, are you necessarily happier?

Places that received EU funding for significant improvements where the UK government were refusing to help (poor places that used to have industry, which has gone overseas, but aren't anywhere near London) were voting LEAVE is something I can't understand.

KenDodd I also grew up in Liverpool but in the 70s. The flat we lived in is still there and is still a shit hole. We lived in the flat at the top on the right, the stairs on in the far corner on the right. This 'cul de sac' was our playground.

I totally agree about the economic troubles of the seventies and the decision to join the Common Market and have never doubted for one minute the need to be part of the EU and the benefits that it has brought to the UK. I remain a passionate Remainer.
I do take issue though with the blanket view of the seventies as dreary and depressing. For me (in my twenties with two young children) the seventies is defined by being part of the Women's Movement and the feeling of sisterhood as we took action together to try and change things for women. No doubt it was just part of the bubble we were in, but the level of political engagement at local level was very high amongst our friends and wider social group.
The eighties by contrast brought the ghastliness of Thatcher and the feeling that rampant greed had broken out as people rushed to buy the nation's utilities. I know which decade I preferred.

Debunking fantasies from prominent Brexiters & Bojo's outrageous ego:

http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/mandrake-diaries-for-new-european-1-5552031

Dr North might be said to be the Prof Van Helsing to Hannan’s Dracula

When Hannan confidently declared on Twitter that most Swiss borders were “unmanned,”
Dr North was quick to repel him by posting photographs of 80 of the 100-or-so very well-manned border crossings on the Swiss frontier 🤦🏻‍♀️

< photos & Tinternet are so useful to correct politicians' lies - but voters have to be prepared to read things that smash their delusions and most choose fantasy over facts >
…
If Boris Johnson has a genius for anything, it’s spending taxpayers’ money.

His London mayoral vanity projects – such as the Garden Bridge and the abortive plans for the Thames Estuary airport – alone set inhabitants of the capital back £940 million 🤦🏻‍♀️
…
In the scheme of things, then, the Foreign Secretary’s decision to hire a film crew to accompany him on his trip to Latin America last month
– and record him shaking the paw of a monkey
, playing Subbuteo, and boring various dignitaries to tears – is small beer.
It is, however, testimony to his vanity.

“He took a personal interest in the film which has just gone up – unnoticed – on YouTube,”
whispers my man at the FCO.
“We all had to sit through a special showing of it with the fat oaf^ in attendance,^
which, take it from me, was a pretty tragic occasion.”

< that‘s some ego, taxpayers funding a compulsory FO fan club >

“We all had to sit through a special showing of it with the fat oaf in attendance,which, take it from me, was a pretty tragic occasion.”^

Shades of Kim Jong Il (or is it Un ?)

Bo Jo Knob ?

In the early 1970s I moved from a depressed Northern former cotton town to Germany and was amazed what a clean, prosperous place it was. People were actually driving modern cars, rather than the patched-up Morris and Ford models at home. I remember saying to my dad that the rarest car I saw there was a beat-up Mini like I saw so often in the UK at the time (well, the north anyway). Those were the days of 3-day weeks, power cuts, strikes and general grubbiness and depression here.

There was a buzz and vibrancy about Germany and a clear belief that things were improving economically. It was so different to the depressed and declining town I knew, which on my rare visits back home seemed like a third world country.

On the subject of the sick man of Europe, I remember a front page of Stern magazine showing a Queenie lookalike pumping the tyres on a bike with the headline "Mehr Pump als Pomp" - pumpen meaning to borrow or scrounge. How people can still look back and say that those were good days beggars belief.

What is it that stops older people from admitting how crap things were back then and how much our membership of the EU (in whatever form) has improved our lives beyond all recognition? I'm old, but I'm not blind.

Emily The greed and lack of communal feeling from the early 1980s onwards - "no such thing as society" maybe taken the wrong way -
was a sea change in the nation's thinking

which has kept the UK barometer permanently stuck on Greed and "I'm all right Jack / Jill"

That's all to do with the UK though, not the EU

EU countries, who did not make most of those choices, do not have the extreme levels of inequality which cause the problems fuelling discontent in the UK's left behind.

e.g. Germany did not de-industrialise - the govt supported industry & training in the tougher times that all countries experience sometimes

I know BigChoc. I live in France and one of the things I like best is the feeling that I live in a country where community and society really matter. Of course it isn't perfect but it does all feel much stronger than in the UK.

The 39/45 war in which a fair amount of Europe (transport and industrial infrastructure) got trashed meant that things HAD to be rebuilt and as 'modernity' with the chance of good road and rail networks which could be established using a mixture of experience of the old and necessity to rebuild brought about massive improvements. The UK was stuck in the 'patch it up' mentality, ultimately costing more and keeping all the old disadvantages.

Hasenstein I don't think we lived through the seventies thinking it was crap. Like every decade there were good things and bad, but people's lives are too diverse (class, area, employment, level of prosperity) to generalise like that. I honestly can't look back on my seven decades and define them as decades. Can anyone?