Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

Been meaning to post up a link to Ivan Rodgers speech in full - but hadn't yet got to the end of it myself.

Apparently it's been crashing the Glasgow Uni website!

https://policyscotland.gla.ac.uk/blog-sir-ivan-rogers-speech-text-in-full/

It is excoriating in its assessment of the Government's understanding of the EU and how it works and the quality of its non negotiating with the EU (aka going after unicorns and a belief in the sunny uplands of Empire Mk 2).

However, I did find it depressing that he thinks that even if there were a 2nd Referendum, even after all the costs, reduced growth and high likelihood of future chaos, the result would be the same.

Is the UK English electorate really that full of numpties?? Don't answer that, unfortunately I know the answer

It is excoriating in its assessment of the Government's understanding of the EU and how it works and the quality of its non negotiating with the EU

Because they believed their own hype.

Is the UK English electorate really that full of numpties??

Yes. Half of them below average intelligence.

However, I did find it depressing that he thinks that even if there were a 2nd Referendum, even after all the costs, reduced growth and high likelihood of future chaos, the result would be the same.

He seems right about everything else as it's based on his expertise.

However he's not a pollster so perhaps he can be wrong about that aspect ? Ever the optimist me.

The problem is that even if a second referendum were to go to Remain, it's unlikely to be by much ... maybe at worst 1-2%

So we'd have to have the reverse "we won, get over it" mentality to push forwards.

A year ago, I said I felt that Brexit is the 21st century equivalent of the reformation ... both sides split fairly equally with religious fervour. That being the case, we might see it all settled in the 23rd century. Just as the USS Enterprise is leaving orbit for the first time.

The govt doesn't have to walk out, for a No-Deal / WTO Brexit
(or for a CETA-type FTA, which could be nearly as bad for the ecconomy)

The default is no deal and this will automatically happen unless May abandons her red lines and stops faffing around

Also, there will be no transition unless she returns to the previous agreed NI

It is strongly rumoured that the EU will stop trade talks after the 28-29 June Councill Mtg
due to the lack of progress on NI

Even if the UK doesn't walk out over that
there may not even be a Withdrawal Agreement, without an NI backstop
At least no more than bare bones, which may not even include essentials such as aviation

No time for another ref and I doubt if the EU would stop the clock for it
They want the UK govt to stop procrastinating and make their own decisions

I'm very nervous about single issue or any referenda too now.

They are used as a way of expressing general protest, opinion and dissatisfaction.

Because of internal Tory issues it we had a bloody referendum on one single non issue which wasn't a top priority for most people.

Perhaps the answer is to now do a new type of detailed advisory survey of every single voter on education, immigration, NHS, EU etc etc. Like YouGov but sent to every voter.

The people's Advisory survey....then that could be used to say "Look actually the EU isn't a big issue for most people."

Imo, the EU would probably only grant an extension / clock-stopping
if
there was a new UK PM
and
that PM promised to drop red lines so there was a reasonable chance of an EEA / EFTA-type deal.

Otherwise, too difficult to get agreement from all 27 members for more time - afaik it has to be unanimous

The govt needs to take responsibility and govern, i.e. actually make decisions in the interests if the country and hold to them
without needing the assurance of opinion polls and focus groups

Tick-Tock

Imo, the EU would probably only grant an extension / clock-stopping if there was a new UK PM

I doubt that would be enough. After all a new PM would still have to be from the Tory party, and there would be nothing to suggest they would have anything of significance to bring to the table.

Obviously the EU can't - and would never phrase it as such - but if I were in their shoes, I'd be thinking that only a new government could restart any negotiations. (And if that requires the UK holds a general election, then so be it).

The govt needs to take responsibility and govern, i.e. actually make decisions in the interests if the country and hold to them without needing the assurance of opinion polls and focus groups

AKA "the good old days"

The govt needs to take responsibility and govern, i.e. actually make decisions in the interests if the country and hold to them
without needing the assurance of opinion polls and focus groups

I agree that we needed a gov. which said "..thanks for your opinion in the ref. We will bear your views in mind but it's complicated... so we will decide."

But I don't trust this lot to decide whether to take a cardi or not. So what do you do. I'm nervous about both a people's referendum and another election.

Imo, the EU would probably only grant an extension / clock-stopping if there was ...

...a decent rebate free payment and ideally a new govt too.

And another...
www.insurancetimes.co.uk/aig-braces-for-brexit-with-two-new-companies/1426908.article

The last one's old ish news but I don't remember if it was posted.

What does May gain from a hard Brexit? She would be the scapegoat?

What does May gain from a hard Brexit? She would be the scapegoat?

Firstly, if the PR guff image of her being some sort of religiously driven person is correct ... well there's no crazy like God crazy. Maybe she thinks something miraculous will happen ? Or it's all worthwhile if it bags her spot in heaven ?

Alternatively, it could be that no price is too great to get rid of human rights ? Something the Tories generally have never had time for. The rush to pull everything out of ECJ oversight was curious at the time.

I posted that an extension would probably only come with a new PM
and if that PM promised to drop red lines so there was a reasonable chance of an EEA / EFTA-type deal.

A new PM is not enough, e.g. what happens of it's JRM ?
and I expect the EU would need a very long spoon before supping with a PM BoJo, or PM Gove

Another ditherer, another PM acting only in the interests of the Tory Party

• not enough reason for an extension

Maybe after a GE, with JC as PM

• at least he would have no problem with a wet border, although that's not a good solution for NI,

but at least the RoI would probably accept it, so we can move forwards into transition and hence gain the time we all need

The problem is that there is no point having a General Election until "Brexit" has been defined. Otherwise it's going to be 2017 all over again.

Both Tories and Labour need to drop the "will of the people" hammer, and acknowledge that with such a close vote from the referendum, it's unclear what "leave the EU" meant.

In a way, the mind-boggling stupidity of an unnecessary election, followed by an unnecessary triggering of A50 is a hidden blessing. Imagine how things would be looking right now if there wasn't the A50 deadline ?

I expect the EU would need a very long spoon before supping with a PM BoJo, or PM Gove

The phrase about hoist with ones own petard seems appropriate. Any Brexiteer-become-PM would be victim of their own aggressive rhetoric.

Imagine BoJo walking into an EU summit, and all the leaders started whistling .....

Anyone see Rees-Smug complaining about the housing crisis and how it affects him.

He's been priced out of Mayfair.

No really, he's been on ITV news about it and how he's had to buy around the corner instead.

This is the same Rees-Smug whose wife got £7.8 million from the government to save her ancestral home Wentworth Woodhouse....

Anyone see Rees-Smug complaining about the housing crisis and how it affects him.