Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

Plus the one issue that JRM is particularly toxic on is abortion....

From the Torygraph
New wave of national parks could be created under Michael Gove's plans for a 'Green Brexit'

Aka 'How to protect Tory Marginal Areas Against Planning Law Issues and Keep the Tory Nimbys Happy' policy.

Plus 140 women (it seems cross party) seem set to back an amendment to the domestic violence bill which would allow abortion in NI.

This is the bill that got kyboshed by Brexit - when is the earliest it will be voted on now ?

The ideal for me would be a Parliament where it was impossible to form a Government without a genuine cross-party coalition - so this would include LibDems, Lab, moderate Tories, SNP and the odd one or two 'others'.

Me too (and don't forget the Greens!) I'm sick to the back teeth of adversarial us or them politics. I want grown-up coalitions where everything has to be discussed and compromised on and the worst thing that happens is that every party is slightly unhappy.

I want grown-up coalitions where everything has to be discussed and compromised on and the worst thing that happens is that every party is slightly unhappy.

+1.

I was genuinely thrilled when 2010 seemed to deliver a grown up coalition, and hoped it would be the start of something beautiful.

It might still get that accolade, as it's ensured the Tories are toxic to all other parties, except the headbanging Ulsterpeople ....

it's ensured the Tories are toxic to all other parties, except the headbanging Ulsterpeople ....

I am watching Theresa and her mates the DUP with great interest now that the ROI result is in.

I want grown-up coalitions where everything has to be discussed and compromised on and the worst thing that happens is that every party is slightly unhappy.
I think we need some grown up politicians for that to happen. Well more grown up politicians, there are a few about.

Yes indeed, Dobby.

I want a strongly Federal UK, where England can no longer rise roughshod over the other 3 nations.

Yes, I'm aware this could give the DUP greater power, but that's democracy - maybe the NI electorate would require / exhibit themselves greater responsibility with the greater power

That is even more damning for Cameron. Firstly no planning for a Leave vote. Educating the electorate on what the elements of the EU would be withdrawn. Two years on and the political/media element is about catching on that CU not enough. SM needed for frictionless NI. Dimpleby asked chappie on QT did he know what he was voting for. No follow up on what his consideration of Euratom/EMA was. I'm laughing on the idea that the gov't want the UK to keep European arrest warrant. Weren't the papers full of how horrendous it was that foreign countries could arrest Britons?

Ireland created a 'Citizens Assembly' to look at issues affecting the nation. There has already been work done in preparation for legislation in the event of a 'Yes' vote. It is really good Cameron was in charge of things. Such responsible leadership!

I hope R-Smugg gets to be leader. well not really Show how off his proclamations are. I wouldn't take his view on article 24 on Gatt Tariffs and Trade and leaving the Customs Union. He just did an ad hominem on Ivan Rogers. It was an implied threat to Irl today on Marr, too. He said before how they could slap a 70% tariff on Irish produce.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens%27_Assembly_(Ireland)

Of course it was in it's own interests that the Lib Dem's entered the Coalition. However, I think they have some notion of public service. They made unpopular compromises, but I think they prevented the Tories from doing worse damage. They will never get the thanks for that. And no good deed goes unpunished.

I am watching Theresa and her mates the DUP with great interest now that the ROI result is in.

Travelling out for a (tiresomely predictably) disappointed shop-browse this afternoon, was interested to hear the RoI referendum has ratcheted pressure up on the UK to address NIs effective isolation on the matter.

Theresa (cunningly ?) tried to throw the ball back into the Stormont court.

If there is a God, then the fact that 2017-2018 he has pressed the Tories into an alliance with the DUP while all this is going on shows that they've got my sense of humour.

I'm laughing on the idea that the gov't want the UK to keep European arrest warrant

Probably remoaner fatigue, but I CBA to fact check myself . But wasn't one of the cast irons assurances Leave gave before the referendum that Brexit would not compromise the UKs law and order ?

Loved hearing "cache-cache" from Barnier ... not the sort of phrase you get a chance to use in conversational French.

Some uncharacteristically supportive news for how things are going re:Brexit.

(Only joking. Just another serious point about how bad things stand to get)

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/27/eurotunnel-tory-brexit-customs-union

Eurotunnel has issued a stark warning that UK businesses and consumers will face serious economic costs if the government adopts either of the post-Brexit customs models being considered by Theresa May’s government.

The intervention by the Channel tunnel operator, coupled with a claim by the company that the necessary technology to prevent delays at the borders may not be ready until several years after Brexit, will add to growing pressure on Theresa May to face down hardline Brexiters by keeping the UK inside the EU customs union.

(contd)

Looks increasingly like in the 28-29 EU Council Mtg, the EU will run out of patience and stop the preliminary trade talks,
because there has been no progress on the outstanding Phase 1 issues, NI border in particular

RNorth has recently posted btl on his blog that he estimates the chances of hard Brexit at 90%
I hope he's just being a gloomy bugger, ditto senior civil servant JDD.

JDD posted this an hour ago on http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86883

"Barnier has reset out the EU position
As expected it has hardened

This is entirely inline with the predicted June walkout

Yes we are expecting a walkout in June by the EU as we have not fulfilled our end regarding a number of areas not least Northern Ireland
I am standby for Brussels I am told, not looking forward to it as we have completely cocked this up from day 1 and we will have around 36 hours to fix it"

< imo, if it happens, the EU action won't be as dramatic as a walkout - they'll just stop trade talks, but continue discussing NI.
It may even be then that the UK walks out, because of no trade talks.
The EU wants a transition period too, but they seem to have promised the RoI that there won't be one without agreement on the border>

Theresa May to oppose MPs' vote on Northern Ireland abortion law

www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/27/theresa-may-oppose-vote-northern-ireland-abortion-law

Remember this ?

That is even more damning for Cameron.
But equally damning for Theresa May. Cameron reneged on his agreement to stay on as PM and implement the decision. May could easily have said that she wasn't bound by Cameron's statements prior to the Referendum, particularly now that he had gone back on his word.

I've read the claim that Cameron resigned specifically so that there would be a new PM with a new slate,
not bound by his promises to carry out the decision the referendum produced

Then came May …

www.ft.com/content/23663bc4-619e-11e8-90c2-9563a0613e56
Britain’s plans for ‘no-deal’ Brexit have ground to a halt
Lack of preparation weakens May’s threat to walk out of talks

The UK government’s preparations for a “no deal” Brexit in March 2019 have largely ground to a halt, making it almost impossible for Theresa May to walk out of negotiations with the EU in the next 10 months, according to people with close knowledge of the situation.

The minister for no deal is Steve Baker. Who was an ERG founder.

There were rumours last week that he was struggling with planning for no deal from Tom Newton Dunn. To the point that he was getting some stick from the ERG about whether he really was still committed to no deal. And tonight the FT is pretty much reporting in a similar vein.

We always knew that a no deal plan was impossible within the article 50 time frame and that no deal equates to kamikaze politics.

Interesting to see the government finding that reality.

Though I don't believe that puts no deal off the table. It just confirms what a no deal situation is likely to be. Unmanaged chaos which the government will not be in control of, which most likely would lead to the military being drafted in to keep basic functionality of the country going.

No food. No planes. No electricity (if in NI). No manufacturing. No exports. Just people on the streets. Everywhere.

In fact the army does not have the capacity to deal with the scale of such an event.

*In fact the army does not have the capacity to deal with such an event...
*
I'll say! Unnoticed almost, since 2012 British army personnel has been cut back by more than 20,000 - three years ahead of target. There was supposed to be reliance on reservists instead but not enough have been interested in the recruitment drive.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/austerity-british-army-recruitment-crisis-philip-hammond-cuts-capita-outsourcing-not-enough-trained-a7825626.html

This is a great piece written by a grownup who actually understands how the EU works. Shows how ridiculous all our politicians are being right now.

Warning, it's long.

pastebin.com/jMkxVUjs

Lots of long interesting articles around at the moment, but part of the problem is that the electorate only copes with sound bites and memes.

Has this article on a survey on immigration attitudes been posted...

http://theconversation.com/new-poll-shows-british-people-have-become-more-positive-about-immigration-95813?utmsource=twitter&utmm_medium=twitterbutton

I dislike Gove immensely and can't bear for him to be right but he appears to have done some expert checking for once about changes in attitudes to immigration..

There are two broad explanations for why this is happening – that the change is being driven by “reassurance”, or “regret”.

The first is the idea that people feel they can now say that immigration has positive aspects, because numbers are coming down, or they believe numbers will be lower in the future, as a result of Brexit.

Regret, on the other hand, could be driven by a realisation of what we’re losing from lower immigration: as numbers fall and warnings of skills shortages and economic impacts increase, the extent to which the country benefits from immigration becomes more obvious.

I also think that (ridiculously) attitudes are illogically linked to proximity to terrorist attacks...in our quick fix computer game dominated age, concentration spans and opinions can switch over a 10 minute interval.So in the aftermath of an attack by a home grown terrorist attitudes to immigration do flip.

... another interesting story about immigration. Admittedly French, but you could hardly want for a better one :

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44275776

A Malian migrant hailed as a hero after mounting a daring rescue to save a small boy dangling from a balcony in Paris is to be made a French citizen.

(contd)

If this keeps up, it's possible that immigrants could become human in a few generations ....

That Ivan Rogers article is just so accurate and sensible...

" As a negotiator, I am actually a great believer that the threat of leaving the negotiating table and going another route has to be there, whenever you can credibly deploy it. But the key word there is “credibly”.

There was, for the EU side of the table, no credibility at all to the idea that the UK could better secure its fundamental interests on the financial markets issues in the time zone by leaving the EU, thus guaranteeing it would have no vote in the Council or Parliament on the future regulatory regime changes."