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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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Thread gallery
51
RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 19:31

Esther Webber @estwebber
Peers now voting on an amendment in the name of Labour's Lord Monks, requiring ministers to seek parliamentary approval for their phase two negotiating mandate

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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 19:41

Esther Webber @estwebber
Govt defeat: Peers vote 270 to 233 for an amendment requiring ministers to seek parliamentary approval for their phase two negotiating mandate in Brexit talks

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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 19:42

Meanwhile Liam Fox announces he has broken the space time continuum.

Department for International Trade @tradegovuk
@LiamFox says technological advances have broken down barriers of time and distance and we are “on the verge of an unprecedented ability to liberate global trade for the benefit of our whole planet” as he opens his speech to the Speaker’s House #FreeTradeUK
@LiamFox calls for people to confront the “myths and wilful distortions perpetuated by the anti-trade lobby”. #FreeTradeUK
To turn our backs on free trade would be both socially irresponsible and morally unthinkable, @LiamFox says in his Speaker’s House speech #FreeTradeUK

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BigChocFrenzy · 30/04/2018 19:50

re Sainsbo's CEO:
Is that a Gerald Ratner moment ? Grin

frumpety · 30/04/2018 20:19

Place marking , interesting times indeed .

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 20:24

Paul Waugh @ paulwaugh
Shadow Health minister Lord Hunt will be 'called in' for a 'discussion' with Shad Chief Whip in Lords after voting for a LibDem amendment for a fresh Brexit referendum, I'm told.

Now Brexit minister @SteveBakerHW has pounced. "If Labour want to be taken seriously as a party which respects the decision the people took in the referendum, they must remove Lord Hunt from their front bench."

Vote was about a referendum on the deal which Labour were supposed to abstain on. The government defeated this amendment.

Esther Webber @ estwebber
51 Labour peers defied the whip to vote for Lib Dem amendment for a referendum on the Brexit deal

Incl one frontbencher who's in trouble, per @paulwaugh

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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 20:25

Esther Webber @ estwebber
Conservative Lord Deben accuses the govt of using technique of "dictators down the ages" by saying accept what we offer or face chaos

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lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 20:41

51 Labour peers defied the whip to vote for Lib Dem amendment for a referendum on the Brexit deal

I'm just too thick for this.I don't get it.

Corbyn allowed a free vote on the initial votes on military action in Syria.But they are all whipped over this?

Is it because the people have spoken? But it was 48 % of the electorate voting one way so it was approx half the people? So why are the Labour Representatives told what to do on this but not Syria?Why the difference, why can't individual politicians vote with their conscience.

woman11017 · 30/04/2018 20:44

@J_amesp
Sensitive personal data of Labour voters was processed by a third party and shared with Arron Banks’s Leave.EU , Cambridge Analytica, and others in February 2016.

libertystratcom.org/2018/04/30/brexit-breach-labour-data-was-shared-with-leave-eu-and-cambridge-analytica/:

The spreadsheet identified 107,406 target postcodes for “blue collar” Labour households and 131,691 target postcodes for “deprived and disaffected” Labour voters, with Warren’s email instructions saying the blue collar households should be targeted first

Translates to lots of potential votes in ref won by 1m. Explains a lot about a few things. Labour.

Good HOL action tonite.Smile

Westministenders: Amber Alert
RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 20:54

Think there is room for another government defeat before the night is out.

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lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 21:41

I know one thing. I was never quite sure about the House of Lords before, due to the hereditary element and being unelected etc.

Now I know I'm massively grateful for their input. Immense intelligence,expertise, and a crucial counterbalance to the idiots in the Commons.

(Although I still don't get why a whip applies there, or why it should be applied in either house- especially when the electorate was divided over this and the division was not on party lines.)

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 21:46

Esther Webber @ estwebber
Concession: Govt backs an amendment which would prevent Henry VIII powers being used to amend the EU Withdrawal Bill when it becomes law

Obviously fed up of defeats!

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Cailleach1 · 30/04/2018 21:58

Whilst the racist element of the right-wing go into apoplexy over the appointment of a Muslim to head the Home Office, they're forgetting that he is a textbook Tory; voting to curtail civil liberties (more surveillance), cutting welfare payments for the disabled. Reductions to housing benefits, against higher taxes on people earning over £150,000... you get the picture. All the while he was quietly claiming taxpayers money to pay the heating bills on his stable (see what I mean by textbook).

twitter.com/david_pickworth/status/990965684069904384

woman11017 · 30/04/2018 22:35

@estwebber
Govt defeat: Peers vote 205 to 181 for Lord Dubs' amendment which seeks to ensure child asylum seekers are allowed to join family members in the UK after Brexit

9th gov defeat.

That racism is brexit is now out for all to see now. The Windrush travesty is now being publicly conflated with brexism. Pro Windrush campaigners are now working with pro EUers to stop this nonsense.

Good work by all in HOL and outside today.Smile

mrsreynolds · 30/04/2018 22:37

Sigh

Westministenders: Amber Alert
OlennasWimple · 30/04/2018 22:39

Liam Fox seems not to understand that the vast majority of UK exports are actual things - not ideas, not e-widgets, but actual things that need to physically cross borders Hmm

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 23:02

Gosh. This is a shocking front page.

Westministenders: Amber Alert
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BigChocFrenzy · 30/04/2018 23:05

Once again, photos of politicians, underneath very inflammatory headlines

BigChocFrenzy · 30/04/2018 23:43

IMPORTANT: shocking misuse of Labour Party data in the referendum
More on what woman raised above.

This article uses the redacted Emails now released by Andy Wigmore as required by the HoC committee investigating CA etc activities during the referendum.
Chilling to read.

https://libertystratcom.org/2018/04/30/brexit-breach-labour-data-was-shared-with-leave-eu-and-cambridge-analytica/

Sensitive personal data of Labour voters was processed by a third party and shared with Arron Banks’s Leave.EU, Cambridge Analytica, and others associated with unofficial groups campaigning to leave the European Union in February 2016.

Data based upon demographics, class, finances and ethnicity, was used to identify core groups of Labour voters to be targeted with UKIP-led messaging
and was instrumental in deciding where Nigel Farage appeared to speak during the Brexit campaign

Blue Collar workers, struggling families, students, and ethnic minorities
were among those specifically designated valuable to tailored social media targeting and doorstep canvassing.

The data provided specific postcodes to be targeted on and offline,
in order to attract millions of votes across the country – enough to swing the divisive referendum result.

Sensitive personal data, which includes ethnicity,
was allegedly compiled from Labour Party information by a third party consultant
and shared with Arron Banks’s Leave.EU campaign group, Cambridge Analytica, Brian Denny of the RMT Union, and the MP Kate Hoey.

The huge dataset, based on the information of millions of Labour voters across the country,
was allegedly built using Mosaic demographics and the results of party canvassing.

It is believed to have been amassed during 2015 by political consultant Ian Warren,
before he passed it on in a series of detailed briefings and a postcode targeting spreadsheet in early 2016.

He first met with Cambridge Analytica to discuss the use of the information as part of Leave.EU’s campaign at the end of 2015.

Warren was head-hunted by Labour for the 2015 election campaign after his successful work with UKIP
and continued to be closely associated with the party,
polling members and working with Owen Smith on his leadership challenge during the remainder of 2016.

Leave.EU’s Andy Wigmore said:
“He ran Ed Milliband’s team and the general election campaign in 2015 for the Labour Party.
He was and still is the Labour Party guru.”

When asked whether he had the right to retain and use the data, Warren terminated the phone call.

The later correspondence includes the postcode targeting data,
meaning the voters’ demographic and ethnicity data could be matched with additional information to potentially identify them as individuals.

This appears to contravene data protection rules published by the ICO.

The February email, see photo below, was sent to:
“Arron Banks; White Knight; Brendan Chilton; Kate Hoey; [email protected]; [email protected]; Peregrine Willoughby-Brown; Brittany Kaiser; Jordanna Zetter; Liz Bilney; Andy Wigmore.”
< Note Kate Hooey, also the RMT >

The subject of this previously unseen email was: “Target postcode sectors – Labour core vote.”

“Please find attached the complete list of target postcodes for Labour core voters susceptible to Leave messaging.

I understand this will feed into the social media campaign in the first instance
but this data should also determine where doorstep and street stall canvassing activities take place“

One of five, the report seen alongside the postcode targeting data focuses on the “blue collar” group of core Labour voters.

The other four reports have not been provided for examination, but they are listed and referred to as:

Struggling, financially strapped households,
Young, well-educated, early-career liberal metropolitan voters,
Current students, aged 18 to 25,
and Ethnic minorities.

< Chilling: The “blue collar” briefing document consists of a very detailled, effective analysis & how to use it - basically stating which levers to best manipulate different voters >

According to Wigmore, Warren used “canvass Labour Party card data and mosaic to create the reports.”

Westministenders: Amber Alert
mathanxiety · 01/05/2018 01:28

That is indeed chilling.

mathanxiety · 01/05/2018 03:25

www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-43956383
This man and his thoughts are apparently so loathsome that a member of the DUP called foul on his latest tweet.

What is/was the Conservative 'Monday Club'? you ask...
There is a long, sordid history to the idea of repatriation.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Monday_Club

Peregrina · 01/05/2018 05:05

The Mail's headlines are chilling - after all the Lords are only doing what the Leaver's want which is help Parliament 'Take Back Control'. This was the slogan, wasn't it? Not 'Let the PM become a dictator'. But if you follow the Brexit Arms, they are bored, which makes me wonder how many of the general public are bored, and will think the Mail has gone OTT?

lonelyplanetmum · 01/05/2018 07:20

And now the Rees Mogg Trump fan club..

"...Britain can change from being a lukewarm friend exercising a calming influence to having a real special relationship. This is only “special” if it is in the United States’ interest..."

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trump-will-be-our-greatest-ally-after-brexit-0p22jv62j?shareToken=6f838e85e71d9796fd485b5212c1b83e

woman11017 · 01/05/2018 08:00

Bit of gossip here on weight loss and protesting, and did millionaire tory donor Lord Harris invite Stephen Lennon/ Tommy Robinson to the HOL yesterday?
twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/991087981912969216
Why would that happen?

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 09:21

Response from Ian Warren (aka @election-data) on the CA / Labour allegations made by James Patrick @J_ames

election-data.co.uk/personal-response

Extract
In 2015 I was asked to do demographic analysis for the Leave.EU campaign; a decision I regret almost every day as it happens. Nonetheless I stand accused of using Labour party data (untrue) and party canvassing (?) records for Leave.EU – both of which are untrue, libellous and deeply offensive. I worked in Labour HQ from November 2014 through to May 2015. I did not “run Ed Miliband’s campaign” in 2015 as the piece says (as I’m sure Ed and just about everybody else in HQ would laugh at). My contract with the party expired on election day, May 2015. I have not worked for the Labour party since. In addition, the accusation that I used Labour’s own data as part of the Leave.EU campaign is both untrue and deeply offensive. I don’t intend to let that accusation pass, even though again it pains me to say anything in public.

In 2013 and 2014 I created my own bespoke data, which was used as part of the Leave.EU campaign materials published in the piece tonight. This was my own data and pre-dated any work with Labour HQ, was never used by Labour HQ during my time with them, nor has it been used by them since. During my time in Labour HQ, as I’m sure they would attest, I conformed wholly and properly with the necessarily strict protocols in place regarding the data they held. I would NEVER breach both the word of those protocols but also the underlying moral imperative that data is sacrosanct. I hope my former colleagues inside Labour HQ would attest to my professionalism in such matters and I wholly reject the accusation.

I was asked by Leave.EU to carry out a piece of analysis on the demographics of Labour voters who would be minded to vote Leave. I did so using my own data, having spent much of 2013 and 2014 researching those voters in my own time. The data I used to inform this work for Leave.EU is NOT personal data; it is neighbourhood level data.

Honestly, it is possible to do from neighbourhood level data. I've looked at this type of data which is publically available on another website.

I think this is a plausible explanation.

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