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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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RedToothBrush · 05/05/2018 14:15

But yes lets piss off the 'blairites' and the 'yellow tories'...

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RedToothBrush · 05/05/2018 14:35

Nick @ nicktolhurst
Multiple sources confirming that UKIP MEPs have been complaining that no plans for their office space or expenses during the transition phase have been made yet.

Seriously can you get any more insane than this?

Entire party devoted to leaving EU - upset that they're leaving EU.

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TomRavenscroft · 05/05/2018 14:46

Does Theresa May actually remember which party it is that is allowing her to cling onto power?

She remembers. She's just either got her head in the sand (Brexit passim) or she's planning to try to fudge it by calling the checks something else.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/05/2018 15:55

Entire party devoted to leaving EU - upset that they're leaving EU.

Of course they are! not only have they managed to talk themselves out of a job (and a pretty cushy one at that) they've actually got rid of their entire reason for existing.

Being a one cause party is always going to be a lose lose situation because, should you ever achieve that cause, you're party is over (see collapse of ukip vote in 2017 and on Thursday) and if you never achieve that cause then you have futiley wasted your life, pissing into the wind.

I've said it before on these threads- I don't actually believe Nigel Farage voted leave on referendum day - and if he did, it was because he was supremely confident remain would win.

SusanWalker · 05/05/2018 18:33

I'm glad you're nearing the end of the road Hasenstein.

I heard a heartbreaking story on the today programme last week. Two young girls who had lived here since they were tiny. But because they didn't have British citizenship were unable to get student loans and would have to pay international fees at uni. As a result neither of them were at uni. Their families had been unable to afford the fees associated with the citizenship process. One girl said her mother had only been able to afford for one of her children to become a citizen and had had to choose between her and her sister.

Hasenstein · 05/05/2018 18:43

SusanWalker

Thanks, but I won't believe it's over until we have the passport in our hands. Hopefully a nice shiny maroon one which will last 10 years, by which time we could well be back in the EU anyway.Grin

That story is really sad; imagine having to choose between your children because you can't afford the bloody fees. It is a long, expensive, intimidating and demanding process. And it really doesn't need to be, especially in cases like the one you relate.

PostNotInHaste · 05/05/2018 19:15

Really glad there is light at the end of the tunnel for you and your DW Hasenstein

I’m a long term lurker to these threads, more annoyed than ever over what is happening and now with additional complication of DD’S EU partner having moved over here this year so quite anxious about how this will all pan out.

Recent experience renewing my uk passport hasn’t help. Assumed I could do it on line so sat down to do so. Only a few questions in and i’m Asked if I a, a dual National. As I am I can’t do it purely online, apparently I had to fill in the form online then print. Got to a question asking how many passports I will be sending and a note saying that if you live in the UK and have dual nationality you need to submit your passport from other nationality. If you are a UK citizen but not citrentk6 living in the UK then you can submit a photocopy.

Couldn’t remember ever having to submit my other passport before so rang to clarify this is actually what they wanted me to do, yes apparently. Massively got the hump about The whole thing and quit the application. Stewed on it then decided I’d send a photocopy and i’d pick up form in Post Office. Finally got form from PO, looked at it, absolutely nothing about was I a dual citizen. Filled in what was asked, sent it off and have new passport with no mention of other passport whatsoever.

Still hugely grateful my Mother and PIL are dead or would be in the middle of paper work hell for all 3 of them. How sad is that. I think people who don’t have anyone in the family who has moved here or abroad have any idea how stressful it is. Really encouraging DD to take up degree offer as it will give her more options of countries if the UK doesn’t work out for her and partner. Even my Brexit voting Dad is coming to see the sense in that.

Hasenstein · 05/05/2018 19:31

PostNotInHaste

When you're stuck in the middle of these mad procedures, you think it's just you. Then MN and other sites show it's not and there's lots of folks having the same or similar problems. It comes as a shock if, like us, you've never had anything to do with this sort of bureaucracy before. As you say, people who don't have a furrin connection don't really know what's going on. Paperwork hell sums it up nicely!

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 05/05/2018 20:02

hasen I hope you get a speedy positive resolution soon. God knows you've jumped through enough hoops.

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 05/05/2018 20:05

That was a collective you of course Blush

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2018 20:41

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-rebel-tories-single-market-vote-theresa-may-labour-backing-a8336971.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Brexit: Rebel Tories say they have enough MPs to push Theresa May into staying in single market – if Labour backs it
Exclusive: It comes as a major row is brewing over the Labour leadership's lack of support for the single market

But in a move set to enrage Labour politicians, Jeremy Corbyn’s front bench will on Tuesday refuse support for just such a proposal in the Lords – preventing it from being voted on in the Commons.

Note here, last week 50 Labour Lords defied the whip. Including a front bencher who was not sacked, just 'bollocked'.

One senior Conservative backbencher told The Independent: “Yes, we have the numbers now, but it will depend on exactly how any particular amendment is phrased.

“It’s more difficult than passing a customs union amendment, because the [Conservative] manifesto was clear about leaving the single market.

“But undoubtedly there are a group of Conservative MPs, now larger than the one who voted for similar amendments in the past, who have concluded maybe it is a way for us to go.”

A vote designed to commit the government to the EEA/EFTA path was lost in December in the Commons, but MPs say things have now changed.

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RedToothBrush · 05/05/2018 20:42

Over to you Jeremy.

Remember there are some pissed off centrist types just waiting...

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Icantreachthepretzels · 05/05/2018 20:44

prettybird were you out marching today?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44005360

Interesting that the BBC has a) reported it and b) admitted that turnout was greater than expected. I wonder what their game is??? I don't believe for a second that it is a straight forward reporting of events.

Leeds for Europe are rallying at the end of the Tour de Yorkshire tomorrow. I'm hoping to go... but it will be a bastard getting there, as all the roads will have closed for the sodding bike race.

prettybird · 05/05/2018 20:48

It's making me nervous about the next time I need to renew my passport (iirc in 7 years). I have no idea where my naturalisation certificate is and while the last time, my renewal was straightforward (iirc, just my old passport details, confirming address and including a new passport photo, I don't put it past HMG to change the forms to make it more difficult. Sad

It would be lovely if I never need to renew my UK passport and can get a Scottish EU passport instead Wink - but somehow I don't see it happening in the required timescale Sad

prettybird · 05/05/2018 20:54

Icantreachthepretzels - I'd meant to go but then dh needed me to do some work in the garden in preparation for his dad's who died 7 years ago greenhouse coming over (long story Hmm involving his mum being about to give it away even though she'd promised it to dh and then kept on putting him off taking it)

I'd really been looking forward to it too Hmm

DGRossetti · 05/05/2018 21:08

Interesting that the BBC has a) reported it and b) admitted that turnout was greater than expected. I wonder what their game is??? I don't believe for a second that it is a straight forward reporting of events.

They're trying to make their position appear aligned in retrospect ... has anybody asked the question as to what outcome would [appear to] be best for the BBC ? If so, I've not seen it discussed; and if not ... well I have now Grin

woman11017 · 05/05/2018 21:11

It's making me nervous about the next time I need to renew my passport (iirc in 7 years). I have no idea where my naturalisation certificate is
Unbelievable that it has come to this. Sad
Hope greenhouse erection goes ok. Smile My wild flowers seem even wilder this year.< I'm letting them be> Lots of forget me not.................

Remember there are some pissed off centrist types just waiting

@Labour4EU
We're delighted to be launching a major campaign on Monday with @Remain_Labour and activists from across our movement.
Our aim is to change our Party position to represent the views of the vast majority of Labour people, to stand against Brexit and stand up for a #PeoplesVote

prettybird · 05/05/2018 21:23

I've not yet checked my timeline to see what the comments were from those that attended - but judging by the BBC report, if the police said there were 35,000 at the march, then there were significantly more marchers than that (memories of the Glasgow Anti-Iraq War march which was supposedly 25,000 but was closer to 100,000 Hmm)

The BBC will downplay it - but will pat itself on the back that it had addressed its public service news remit by even reporting it, after usually ignoring them. Means it must have been too big for them to ignore Grin

Mistigri · 05/05/2018 21:32

Only a few questions in and i’m Asked if I a, a dual National. As I am I can’t do it purely online, apparently I had to fill in the form online then print.

How would they ever find out if you lied?

I suppose they might already know if you are naturalised British but presumably they can't know in the case of British citizens who have taken another nationality. I have no intention of telling them when I renew DS's passport that he is also French. I wasn't going to bother renewing his UK passport (French one is cheaper) but it seems important to ensure that there is no future room for doubt about his British nationality.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/05/2018 21:48

The BBC said it was 80 000 - and that 40 000 had been expected.

When it was the great north march they claimed hundreds, when it was in fact 5000. So scaling up that would 800 000! ...so maybe not that, but even the BBC have admitted it was massive, and twice as large as expected. Hence why I'm wondering what their angle is. Frightening England about Scottish Independence? But then to what end? I can only work that out as warning people that brexit will lead to the end of the UK - but that doesn't tally with the BBCs reporting on actual brexit. So...what's going on?

it's a shame you couldn't go pretty - but there's always next year.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/05/2018 21:53

Oh no you're right - 35 000. That's bad reporting though. I read the initial 80 000 and just accepted that... I scanned the rest of the article and drifted across all other numbers. Loads of people will do that!
But still - based on their previous reporting (and the pictures!) I think it's fair to say that the march will have attracted way more than the 40 000 hoped for.

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2018 21:59

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/05/tory-mps-threaten-throw-kitchen-sink-john-bercow/amp/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Tory MPs threaten to 'throw the kitchen sink' at John Bercow

Conservative MPs are threatening to challenge John Bercow with a barrage of parliamentary questions and motions following allegations about his behaviour, if he refuses to step down as Commons speaker.

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RedToothBrush · 05/05/2018 22:12

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/05/labour-peers-accuse-corbyn-brexit-cowardice?__twitter_impression=true
Labour peers accuse Corbyn of Brexit cowardice
Party is blocking efforts in Lords to call for membership of the European Economic Area

The Observer understands that more than 40 Labour peers are ready to back a cross-party amendment to Brexit legislation that would instruct the government to begin negotiating future UK membership of the European Economic Area (EEA).

They really need as many of the 188 labour lords as possible to vote for the amendment. 40 falls way short.

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BigChocFrenzy · 05/05/2018 22:43

What can happen when a rich country makes some really bad decisions and the economy collapses …

Yesterday, Argentina raised interest rates to 40 % in yet another desperate attempt to stem a currency collapse and reverse soaring inflation

Many Brits don't realise that Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world in the early 20th century
but then populism caused a few bad decisions that caused the economy to slide … faster and faster … and eventually over the cliff
Their economy was broken and has never recovered
They have suffered dictatorships, the torture and murder of thousands of dissidents in the 1970s

The people can only look back in despair at the prosperity & stability that a previous generation threw away.
Just because a country is rich does not mean it will always remain so, that things will always turn out OK in the end
Even if it shoots its economy in the head.

prettybird · 05/05/2018 22:52

Now had a chance to look at my FB timeline. Those that were at the march are frothing at the BBC's coverage.

This is what Lesley Riddoch (a respected Scottish journalist formerly BBC ) had to say:
Unbelievable. Radio 4 10 o'clock news has report from Paris about 40k protestors. Another about 1000 arrests in Moscow. A non-story about Youtube essay writing scam. But 100k marching for indy in Glasgow (1 million in UK terms). Nothing. How can BBCNews justify ignoring this?

Not seen the TV news today - but if it was only on Reporting Scotland and not the national news, then it shows that they are (as the Establishment) guilty of trying continuing to minimise the implications of the continued support for independence.

The National says it will have lots of photos that the rest of the MSM won't be sharing in its 4 page special pullout on Monday.

Westministenders: Amber Alert