Westministenders: Amber Alert

[RedToothBrush]

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

I’ll vote for it, Lonely! I’m sure all the women members are a lot more colourful and individual. Bring it on!

...and then you woke up!
I had a dream recently about Trump visiting and (weirdly) being scheduled to visit my place of work. My boss said none of us were to protest. I felt really pleased when I woke up and realised it wasn’t true, bust still felt resentful towards my boss.

but not bust gaaah

Hi born, bust pretty much sums our broken politics up anyway!

The whole feeling from the dream seemed positive, although the identical men in grey do seem a bit nightmarish now I'm awake!

Hi lonely, sadly (and bigly) true.

The identical men in grey has me picturing Majors spitting image puppet. I clearly have sleep to catch up on still

We do need a 'central' party lonely.
Does anyone know if the Renew Party got any seats at all?

"Its not Labour that got it wrong."

"It was the voters fault for being the wrong type of voters, who have the wrong opinion and not agreeing with the Labour Party."

"They need educating so they vote the right way or they should move so we can get the right type of voters in here."

Gosh, I wonder why the voters didn't vote for Momentum backed candidates? Its a complete mystery.

Of course I expect to see many more post match analysis along these lines about how they haven't educated voters enough or how voters who don't vote for them should be punished somehow for being ignorant.

Owen jones’ timeline is something to behold

Isn't it just?

Usually you can take whatever he says, reverse it and be far closer to reality.

This is how I have started to read Owen Jones's twitter feed to get a better idea of what is going on.

The fact you can do this, show to the extent that Jones is using propaganda. Its not merely his opinion its a deliberate political strategy and yes he knows exactly what he's doing.

Arguably the LibDems are the central party, but (these local elections aside) they haven't done well in the past few years. Do we think this is because the LibDems have lost centre voters because of the coalition, or have voters basically abandoned the centre?

I have mixed feelings about establishment of new centre parties like Renew, much as I believe we need something, because I fear this means even more splitting of what seems like a shrinking pool of centre voters.

While UK politicians are studying their navels and squabbling over the type of navel fluff …

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/04/california-economy-uk-fifth-largest

Despite having a population of only 40 million compared with the UK’s 65 million people, California’s gross domestic product of $2.7tn has overtaken the UK’s $2.6tn.
< they got richer; the Uk got poorer >

The "hostile environment" the Tories brought in, to supposedly target illegal immigrants,
seems modelled on how the US encourages ordinary citizens to profile and report People of Colour who are just going about their business & ordinary life

• which results in innocent US citizens being arrested or even shot dead by US police

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/04/native-american-students-colorado-state-college-tour-police

The incident, which prompted an apology from the university, comes amid a steady stream of similar accounts across the US,
including police responding to calls targeting African American patrons in Starbucks, a golf course, a gym and a Waffle House.

A black former White House staffer said he was moving into an apartment building in New York last week when a resident called police on him, reporting an “active burglary”.

In two recent California cases, calls to law enforcement led police to fatally shoot unarmed black men – Diante Yarber in a Walmart parking lot and Stephon Clark in his family’s backyard.

That's a bit worrying about California though because it means Trump's protectionist policies haven't started to slow things down, at least in California. ?So it's a like a home goal almost an argument for being more Trump like?

James O'Brien @mrjamesob
The council elections were good/bad for Labour in exactly the same way that the General Election was good/bad for the Conservatives. It’s genuinely amazing how many people are determined not to understand this.

Do we think this is because the LibDems have lost centre voters because of the coalition, or have voters basically abandoned the centre?

Coalition.

The vote for the centre ground shows up in polling in various ways. Its there. Its the sense of betrayal that people are struggling with over the LDs.

I also think there is a far amount of unnatural Tory voters who are worried about this 'punishment' rhetoric that is coming from the far left. They are only going Tory because they believe the LDs are not a viable alternative and voting LD will let in Labour. Fear of Labour is greater than fear of Tories. (Obviously if you are better off this is something of an easier line to take).

How the uk government is perceived by some across the pond

A New Face Won’t Change the British Government’s Racist Heart
mobile.nytimes.com/2018/05/02/opinion/sajid-javid-home-office-hostile-environment.html

By the way, just a quick (ha!) update on DW's naturalisation procedure.

Having jumped all the hurdles, and paid all the many fees [see various messages passim), we've finally completed the naturalisation application form and yesterday took it, plus the odd kilo of supporting evidence, to the Naturalisation Checking Office (local, but a good hour away). Where for the first time in the entire procedure going back 18 months, we actually met a human being, rather than a grumpy automaton! The lady who went through our documentation was helpful, sympathetic and quite unable to understand why it should have been so complex after 40 years' residence.

Having braced ourselves to pay the £1280 fee, we found it had gone up in April to £1330. Apparently, this is an annual increase which the Home Office applies because, well, it can and no-one outside the process knows about and no-one inside it dares to argue with. As with all the fees (£96 for the checking service) which suddenly spring up unexpectedly along the way, you just can't dispute them, as that will be the end of your application. Annoyingly, they don't take the fee at the time, but will take it from your account at some point during the approval process (which may be up to 6 months), so you have to make sure you keep £1330 on your account at all times.

The next step will be when we hear from the Home Office that DW has to get her biometrics done at the Post Office. Once you hear from them at some point in the next 6 months, you have to get it done within 14 days, otherwise the application will lapse, so no long holidays for us for however long it takes.

We'll then have to go to a naturalisation ceremony at the county hall, where she'll have to swear allegieance to the monarch and sing the national anthem, but then she'll be given tea and cake as a "well done" pat on the head just to show how English she then will be.

Then it's just the standard passport application form. I noticed there's a section which requires non-Brits to declare not only their parents' names, date & place of birth, date of marriage, but also their grandparents'! DW never knew any of her grandparents, one parent is dead and the other has dementia, so I was a bit worried about how we were going to be able to obtain this (very) historic information (not easy in Germany and Poland/Russia with so many records destroyed in the war). It was therefore a great relief when the lady at the NCS said this wasn't necessary any longer and she had no idea why they keep it on the form.

The upshot is that we think we're now almost there. It's taken 18 months to date plus the next 6 months' waiting period and cost us well over £2000, excluding travel costs (the time costs don't bear thinking about). We've done everything ourselves, but if we'd used an immigration lawyer we'd be looking at well over £5000. Along the way we've met people who really can't afford this level of fees; goodness knows how they've managed to scrape the funds together.

I'm not wanting to whinge about all this. My view is that we're lucky that we can afford the expense and have the time and determination to complete all the interminable and extremely difficult forms. There are so many people in a less fortunate position who will be really struggling to afford the fees and understand the forms. We've made quite a few mistakes ourselves along the way and had to go back and pay the fees again. The required evidence is difficult to obtain and I'm sure there are plenty of people who won't have it and will struggle to get hold of it.

With all that's happened with the Windrush scandal, you can understand why The 3 Million are hugely suspicious of what the government has in store for EU nationals after Brexit and why ECJ oversight is so precious to them.

The most infuriating thing, apart from the constant officiousness and unfriendliness we've encountered, is talking to those bleeding heart types who say how dreadful they find it and how wrong it is that we should have to go through all this after so many years, but you know bloody well that they voted for Brexit, so their concern is just hypocrisy. I'd almost prefer it if they were honest and said they won and we're just collateral damage in the fight to take back control and keep out foreigners, so suck it up.

Looking forward to our tea and cake when we finally get there .

Hasenstein to you and your DW for navigating through this insane process. It was already rather expensive and labyrinthine when I went through it over a decade ago, but now it's like "This was the Death Star, and this is Starkiller Base." I will keep my fingers crossed that everything goes as it should.

bleeding heart types who say how dreadful they find it and how wrong it is that we should have to go through all this after so many years, but you know bloody well that they voted for Brexit, so their concern is just hypocrisy

Exactly this! Not to mention the "Oh I didn't mean you" types

I agree elements, the LibDems should be the centrist party. Yes the coalition, etc etc, but that was then and this is now, and it's a very different set of circumstances we find ourselves in. And different personnel. The LD are the only large pro-Europe party, so centre voters probably need to consider them. Any new parties just split the vote.

Horrendously complicated & expensive system

to Hasenstein & DW that you have managed all this
You must be very strong folk
and as you say, what happens to those without financial resources, also the mental / emotional capability to endure this nightmare system

Voters apparently like the idea of coalition governments, but not the compromises that have to be made to make them work. Hence the vilification of the LDs since the Coalition. It’s as though the adversarial nature of UK politics has permeated so deeply it can’t be eradicated.

"what happens to those without financial resources, also the mental / emotional capability to endure this nightmare system"

I really can't imagine. The guidelines alone are nigh on 100 pages long and can be quite difficult to follow. The forms are equally long and you're often unsure if you're entering the right information. The lady at the Nationality Checking Office said you have to put yourself into the mindset of a Home Office official, work out that they want to see.

So apart from the mental/emotional capacity to keep soldiering on, you need a lot of time. Again, I'm fortunate in that I'm retired and can devote time and brainspace to it all, but if you're already doing a physically and/or mentally demanding job as well, it must be a real struggle. Plus you'd have to take time off work for the trips to the Passport Exchange/Nationality Checking Service. That Canadian lady in the Guardian article a week or so ago had difficulty standing, but still had to present herself for interviews involving train/bus journeys and associated expenses.

They really do need to make the process more readily accessible in every sense. There'll be over 3 million applications for "settled status" heading their way soon and all we've heard is platitudes that it'll be easy peasy (but won't work on an iPhone; they suggest you borrow an Android phone to apply!).

I didn't click on the link because it was the daily express - but I was amused to see that they had published an article (and that word should probably in sarcastic quote marks) that issued a Brexit warning. it decried that the country could have a remain majority by 2021 - in just 3 years demographics would have shifted enough that most people now wanted to be in the EU....and? Why is that a problem? It's still democracy - people are allowed to want different things as time progresses. Especially when there was such a massive generational divide on a single issue - it is an inevitability!

Why oh why do brexiteers insist on showing their own stupidity, time and again, and then get all pissy when we call them thick?

Interestingly - if there is a clear 'remain' (or whatever we will be called post brexit) majority by 2021, then the 2022 election could be fought on the ground of returning to the EU. This disasterfuck of stupidity needn't last all that long! Especially if we can transition until the end of 2020.

They have also reported that there is a secret clause in the brexit bill that means the Lords could reverse brexit weeks before exit day - I hope that is true.

How many people read the express does anyone know? It seems to produce by far the most brexit stories of any newspaper.

Meanwhile, according to the guardian, there are plans being drawn up for border checks between NI and the rest of the UK. Does Theresa May actually remember which party it is that is allowing her to cling onto power?

Election Data @ election_data
Some constituency-level numbers from yesterday:
Walsall North, Con majority of 2,601
(Share in 2017 in brackets):
Con 42.9% (49.6%)
Lab 42.8% (42.8%)
LD 6.7% (1.5%)
UKIP 3.6% (6.0%)
Grn 0.6% (dns)
Other 3.8% (dns)

South Swindon, Con majority of 2,464
(Share in 2017 in brackets):
Con 38% (48.4%)
Lab 44% (43.5%)
LD 10% (4.1%)
UKIP 4% (2.5%)
GRN 5% (1.5%)

Bolton NE, Lab majority of 3,797
(Share in 2017 in brackets)
Con 39% (42.2%)
Lab 41% (50.6%)
LD 11% (2.9%)
UKIP 2% (3.5%)
Grn 3% (0.8%)
Other 4% (dns)

Bolton West, Con majority of 936:
(Share in 2017 in brackets)
Con 38% (47.9%)
Lab 29% (46.1%)
LD 30% (2.9%)
Grn 2% (dns)
Other 1% (dns)
UKIP dns (3.1%)

Pudsey, Con majority of 331:
(Share in 2017 in brackets)
Lab 33% (46.7%)
Con 41% (47.4%)
LD 9% (3.3%)
Grn 11% (dns)
YP 6% (2.1%)

Dudley North, Lab majority of 22
(Share in 2017 in brackets):
Lab 45% (46.5%)
Con 42% (46.4%)
UKIP 11% (5.5%)
LD 1% (0.9%)
GRN 1% (0.6%)

Calder Valley, Con majority of 609
(2017 result in brackets):
Con 37% (46.1)
Lab 38% (45.1)
LD 12% (3.4)
UKIP 4% (2.6)
Ind dns (1.8)
Grn 9% (1.1)

David Child @ davidchild
Interesting that in each case it looks like the floating LD voter determine the outcome.

Election Data @ election_data
Yes it's coming up a lot. Not altogether surprising to me but not really discussed a lot (LD switchers)