Westminstenders: Throwing Boomerangs

[RedToothBrush]

British politics and media in a nutshell.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boomerang_effect_(psychology)#Political_beliefs

No EU progress, no discussion. Just this. Keep everyone in line by bouncing boomerangs.

Disaster capitalism looms, they just have to get us to the edge of the cliff before the centre reforms. That's it.

If the legal roads to stop Brexit are closed as David Allen Green says, then how do you force the political flood gates to open, especially with both the far left and the far right using micro-aggression against the public to keep the centre ground weak?

Answers on a ballot paper on 3rd May.

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
Nobody thinks Amber Rudd is callous. The Windrush scandal - and all subsequent developments - have centred on whether she does detail, and is properly across her brief.

This Guardian scoop suggests - again - not

Amazingly, the home office press office do not yet have a response to this story
(At 2:58pm about the Rudd Story in the Guardian)

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
Its now 4pm and the home office press office still do not have a response

And at 4:49pm he still hasn't tweeted anything further.

That's a pissed off journalist on a Friday afternoon...

It's really a massive game of parliamentary twister isn't it ?

As far as I can tell, Johnson has said he'd resign over the customs union stuff. Gove is keeping his own council (has been interpreted by some pundits as that means he'll stay put whatever, but this is Gove), May might want to sacrifice Rudd to stop herself from being exposed over Windrush. But the shit keeps on getting deeper. If May does ditch Rudd, then she exposes herself to having one more in the naughty corner.

The naughty corner, if they hold their nerve and Labour support them have the power to defeat May over the Customs Union. May will not want an embarrassing and damaging defeat like that. But she can't head it off by saying she'll back down over the customs union because it will leave her exposed to the 1922 committee. The government won't collapse because of the Fixed Term Act.

So the threat of Corbyn getting in because the rebels vote for staying in the customs union is stupid. Plus we literally can not leave the customs union without getting into dystopian nightmare scenarios. Cos we haven't planned the infrastructure and don't have the resources and ability to before the end of transition.

Breathe...

The only way forward would look like it would be to take the defeat to save her party. The rebels look like they have the numbers to do so, and there are couple of MPs who didn't rebel last time, who look suspiciously like they will this time.

May's only option then is to facilitate a massive pile on, on the rebellions to spin it as all their fault. Again to save the party. Whilst sacrificing a few MPs to the twitter mobs. Knowing all along that was the only viable outcome and that saves her neck. In the short term at least.

Of course Corbyn could throw a spanner in the works. But I think the temptation of 'defeating the Tories' is too great.

And then there's the local elections.

The only way forward would look like it would be to take the defeat to save her party.

Or pull the general election lever ?

We don't have time for a general election.

If it were pulled that would be interesting to justify.

For frictionless trade with the EU, the Single Market is by far the most important requirement,
plus a customs arrangement to remove even delays such as Norway to Sweden.

The Customs Union on its own won't do it - there were border posts and delays back before the Single Market, but long after there was a Customs Union.

I do keep wondering if the CU is being used to really mean SM, because the SM was made toxic very early on.
Rather like renaming Windscale to Sellafield

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
Hmmm. Amber alert, so to speak

Oooooh.

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
Sounds like home office statement coming (tho that would suggest fighting to defend. Sounds like this story has caused seriously angst in gvt)

Michael Crick @ michaellcrick
It's three hours since Guardian broke their exclusive story about memo copied in to Amber Rudd about deportation targets. Despite several messages, still no response from Rudd's political team. They're taking a long time to consider her options.

But I don't think resignation is one of the responses Amber Rudd is considering right now

Matt Dathan @ matt_dathan
NEW: Government source says Amber Rudd's going to fight on - Home Office statement to be issued shortly.

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
It's 7pm and there's no sign of any response to the Guardian story. It's far from clear there will be one despite earlier hints. If she can't answer the charges......?

I do keep wondering if the CU is being used to really mean SM, because the SM was made toxic very early on. Rather like renaming Windscale to Sellafield

I think this might be the case too. The CU isn't really any use without the SM, or at least SM access.

Re: Rudd, I think it's highly possible she'll resign.

NEW: Government source says Amber Rudd's going to fight on - Home Office statement to be issued shortly.

I recall Mrs Thatcher saying that - how many hours later did her resignation come? Not very many. I do think that Rudd is taking some of the flak for May, but it does sound as though she deserves it.

Archie Bland @ archiebland
Already, the length of time this statement is taking feels like it massively undermines Rudd. You can't plausibly say 'nothing to see here and I have the PM's unequivocal support' after seven hours!!

Harry Cole @ MrHarryCole
^Senior Home Office source: "go to the party, she's not going anywhere."
Statement now not expected within deadlines for newspapers....^

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
This is significant because as of 730 the cannot rebut the Guardian allegation that Rudd misled Parliament

To be fair, I can believe this was one of a hundred memos that Rudd glanced at, didn't take in the implications, then promptly forgot about
Especially if there were a lot of urgent matters that she had to deal with at the time

Laura Kuennsberg @ bbclaurak
1. Aaaaaarrgh, the Friday night silence when a minister's future is in doubt - since @nickhopkinsnews scoop this afternoon the situation around Amber Rudd has felt very, shall we say, fluid
2. Reasons for Rudd to go - she has not appeared in control of facts this week when Home Office was meant to be getting on top of a mess; she freelanced on sensitive govt Brexit policy and someone inside Home Office is obvs leaking, so how to be sure there isn't more to come?
3. Reasons for her to stay - root of bigger policy mess, Windrush, predates her so in some sense she provides political protection for May; departure would upset delicate Brexit balance in Cabinet + she'd be powerful Remain voice on backbenches, a danger to May in itself

4. V hard to predict where it will end up, but all is clearly not well in Marsham St tonight - and if she stays, she'll do so in the knowledge that more may emerge that could harm her position in next few days

Mordaunt 'misled' the entire country on Marr. And she didn't go. Quite a few of this gov't are practitioners of the 'misleading' arts.

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
(Once more with passion): I’m told @AmberRuddHR is about to tweet

The long time in history to make one tweet.

Here we go!

Amber Rudd MP @ amberruddhr
1/4 I will be making a statement in the House of Commons on Monday in response to legitimate questions that have arisen on targets and illegal migration.
2/4 I wasn't aware of specific removal targets. I accept I should have been and I'm sorry that I wasn't.
3/4 I didn't see the leaked document, although it was copied to my office as many documents are.
4/4 As Home Secretary I will work to ensure that our immigration policy is fair and humane.

Oh so many possible replies to this...

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
Amber Rudd’s tweets tonight do not address the key question: why she didn’t read the document prepared for her on deportation targets - which is ominous for her future

Will she make it till Monday?

@youngvulgarian
"I'm not a liar I just can't do my job, which is why I will be staying on in my job, thank you and good night"

David Lammy @ davidlammy
Was it in your ministerial Red Box? Did you sign it off without reading it? If not does your office sign off documents regarding deportation without you reading them? Is deportation insufficiently important? What other documents does your office sign off without you reading them?

I have to say, from a business perspective, I have a degree of sympathy for Amber Rudd if her office was just cc.ed into the email.

The guidance (and training) in the companies I worked for was that if something was so important that you needed to know about it, you sent it to someone in the "To" field. If it was a "nice to know" but not absolutely necessary then you would use cc.

bcc had an altogether more political, small p, purpose

Amber Rudd’s tweets tonight do not address the key question...

I may be missing the point but to me the most key question is why are the govt focussing on deportations and past immigration anyway?

Look. Let's suppose there is an immigration issue. ( I personally really don't think there is. All serious previous reports such as that from the LSE -Wandsworth?showed economic boosts in areas of migration. The report showed migrants,mostly, pay tax, don't claim benefits and are young, fit and do not drain resources. They do essential jobs and spend money giving needed net benefit to revenues and local jobs and wages etc.)

But, let's suppose for the sake of argument, that immigration is a problem. The focus should then be a system that works going forwards. A French, German, Belgian type system for future arrivals may not work here.

If immigration is a negative issue to be addressed, the main focus has to be on the future. You can analyse the Xenophobia of the referendum but a fear of future increases seemed to be the factor. A few hundred thousand in the past is pretty irrelevant in a country of 65 million surely?

I appreciate if there have been recent illegal arrivals, then it's not fair on those who go through due process to just turn a blind eye completely. But the main focus should be on the future and an effective system.

Targets and a hostile policy that so far has tragically affected at most a section of 55,000 elderly mostly vulnerable patriotic British Windrush people,is not only excruciating but a weird symptom of addressing the wrong (non) problem.

So why is the focus backwards rather than forwards. Am I missing something?

So why is the focus backwards rather than forwards. Am I missing something?
The younger ones pay into the country en large, the older ones take. I appreciate thats very general, but why harm your tax base?

pretty whenever I was working in local government (on and off for several years), management were normally cced in to a) have oversight and b) generally already knew anyway so updated. Otherwise the to box should be used. So she may not have seen that memo, but I'd be highly surprised if the contents were really that shocking to her.

Also last time I worked for someone very high up, it was my job to read their emails to ensure they didn't miss anything, so assume someone's head will roll probably unfairly.