Westminstenders: Exit 2020 Vision

[RedToothBrush]

Yet it is a great mistake to suppose that the only writers who matter are those whom the educated in their saner moments can take seriously. There exists a subterranean world where pathological fantasies disguised as ideas are churned out by crooks and half-educated fanatics for the benefit of the ignorant and the superstitious. There are times when this underworld emerges from the depths and suddenly fascinates, capturers and dominates multitudes of usually sane and responsible people, who thereupon take leave of sanity and responsibility. And it occasionally happens that this underworld becomes a political power and changes the course of history.
Norm Cohn ‘Warrant for Genocide’ 1970

(As referenced by Nick Cohen).

We have a deal (or bits of a deal). Bino til Dec 2020. Then the cliff?

Still a long way to go. It sounds better than it could be. But worse than it initially seems.

I agree too. North can get fucked.

So you want brexit stopped.

Then what?

The first feeds into the second. What future do you want IN the EU?

What do you think needs to change?

Thats how I effectively read North. I don't think its simply about telling remainers to suck it up. Its telling them, apart from the concept of Brexit, what does the liberal centre see as the vision for Britain?

This IS an important question.

Leavers voted against the status quo. Offer them something too.

Pete North is simply trying to convince us into giving up our fight and putting our efforts into convincing the govt to go with his flexit plan so that he gets what he wants.

I agree with this too.

I've always been against another referendum, because

1. I think it would just widen the existing bitter divide in the country

• well, mostly in England - another platform for demagogues to have free airtime to spout their lies and hatred.

2. and it would be pointless: either the result would be another narrow win for one side - so we would be no further on - or opinion has shifted sufficiently to Remain, say consistently around 60%, to make a referendum totally unnecessary as the govt and Parliament would just act on that clear public opinion

So, I decided a while ago that we would have to Brexit and then we would have 2 likely outcomes:

• Either the transition and post-transition deal is BINO, which most of the City and industry will demand, so there will be little tangible change

• Or May caves in to the Ultras and there is no transition, or post-transition there is only a CETA-type trade deal or even no deal
  in which case a much poorer and chastened UK will be applying to rejoin after a year or two of that suffering

the EU could allow the UK to retain most of its opt-outs, because that special treatment for prompt re-entry wouldn't raise the WTO options that a Brexit cake deal does.

There are many different reasons why people voted Leave, for instance, many wealthy property-owning pensioners in the Home Counties voted Leave. The disadvantaged regions story isn’t as simple as he makes out.

Hmm. I like Pretzel's scenario - with the nice, long enquiry.

I think transition won't be followed by a re-entry, not within 15-20 years. Mainly because re-entry will mean accepting fewer concessions than the UK enjoys now - no Euro, in particular. And a lot of people won't like that. And I think we're going to see a tide of resentment against the EU as 'they knick our trade/businesses/jobs'.

I think he's dreaming. And he seems to have drunk the Lexit kool-aid too. Is Brexit really going to rebalance the London/South-East imbalance? Or is it going to exacerbate it? Exacerbate it, I think, if the projections are anything to go by. The North-East looks like becoming some kind of Museum, which will require heavy subsidisation (redistribution of shrinking tax base) to keep ambulances running - and, of course, we can completely trust politicians and media to bring the nation together and not pour petrol on the potential divides and resentment that's going to cause.

I really hope you're right, BigChoc.

The UK is deranged at the moment, though. I honestly think this is a madness that is going to drag itself out for longer than a few years.

Nationalism takes quite a while to burn out, like religious fanaticism
Both can survive hard times by clutching at the cloak of victimhood

BigChoc! I'm relying on you to tell me I'm wrong, and your scenario is the one that will happen!!!

I am genuinely terrified that nationalism + victimhood + indeterminately-directed anger will be what feeds people for the next decade.

cat I'm mostly relying on the belief that once the Tories are faced with the reality of what Brexit does to the economy, they won't want to continue with something so damaging to most of their usual big business & City friends.

However, the question is whether they are convinced of the reality - that there will be no last minute cake - before Brexit / the end of transition
or
whether the country - and far more important to them, their business donors - have to suffer CETA or no-deal terms for a year or two

If Corbyn gets in, impossible to predict what he will do atm, but it could be a hard left Brexit, maybe not so different for most folk from a hard right one.

Dan Jarvis wins vote to run as Sheffield mayor, but can't also be an MP

Corbyn's allis on the NEC set rules to try to push out a potential rival

• Jarvis is a possible future leader from the younger generation, a moderate and former soldier who could be a much more attractive vote-winner

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/23/dan-jarvis-wins-vote-to-run-as-sheffield-mayor-but-cant-also-be-an-mp

Labour MP faces choice after NEC rules he must quit parliament to run as city region mayor

The first feeds into the second. What future do you want IN the EU?

What do you think needs to change?

But surely we already know this? austerity needs to be ended. It was only ever ideological - especially the extent it was driven to - there were other ways of dealing with the crash.
We want to see an increase in public spending, more money for transport, education, the nhs, the police etc. We want tax loopholes closed so that massive corporations have to pay what they owe. We want an increase in affordable housing being built- not the executive five bedroom homes that nobody can afford. We could really do with more social housing as well. What we need is the govt making decisions that will help the masses, and not that will line the pockets of their cronies and donors. reopening Leveson 2 and seeing some accountability in the press wouldn't be bad either.

Perhaps that is all pie in the sky. Perhaps it isn't possible - but it sure as hell isn't possible if brexit goes ahead. That will give us austerity to the max, as businesses flee the country and unemployment soars. Less money to go around and more people needing it.

So even if there isn't a better future than the present on offer - I'd still take the present; with my freedom of movement, our place in the single market and the frictionless trade that goes along with it and my workers rights.

Pete North is wrong. We don't have to explain why the status quo is good. They have to explain why change is better - and specifically the particular change they have chosen (brexit). The fact is -it isn't better it is decidedly worse. It is them that has to justify themselves, not us. No remainer was claiming that the EU was perfect - none of us wouldn't have been happy with some reform. But this change is catastrophic and it is not our responsibility to pitch an alternative future. The facts are on our side! It is the leavers responsibility to either deal with reality and make some hard decisions, or find a way to make unicorns real.

once the Tories are faced with the reality of what Brexit does to the economy
It's a political, not an economic cult/ project though. Cults are usually curtailed by the forces of law and order; but this one is a tricky one.

It's very unfortunate about Dan Jarvis. Having said that, the numbers don't add up for a vote to replace Corbyn - especially with the exodus of members who are being driven to despair at the moment. So, realistically, I don;t think Dan Jarvis was in the running anyway. Nice bit of manoeuvring by the NEC to completely rule it out though.

North is speaking on a day when thousands marched across the country. Including 1000 in Ipswich, but reported as 200 on BBC, who seem to have used odd counting methods for the few rallies they did report. It's messy, but the tide is turning. Lib Dems won another kipper/conservative council seat in Aylesbury this week.

@britainelects
Central & Walton (Aylesbury Valey) result:

LDEM: 40.9% (+18.1)
CON: 31.5% (-1.1)
LAB: 19.8% (+0.9)
GRN: 4.5% (-4.0)
IND: 3.3% (+3.3)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

No UKIP (-17.2) as prev.

It's not merely political, woman that's the problem

It's nationalism - with deluded fantasies about British power and suspicion / dislike / fear of the furrin

That kind of nationalism is based on emotion, like religious delusions
Hence resistent - in fact hostile - to facts & analysis

Yes, i agree with woman, unfortunately. Business and the City have been talking to the government, closely, for a good year, now. And they haven't been telling the government anything good about Brexit - and still it goes forward, with no acknowledgment of what business/the City is saying.

Hard left Brexit is, as we know, something of a mystery at the moment. However, I think Corbyn has given us some clues as to what that might be like - a lack of compromise between pragmatism and ideals would be my guess.

And I think, with any scenario, we are going to be subjected to propaganda the like of which will make the Referendum seem like normality. You can't get a large mass of people to comply with austerity the like of which is coming without a massive push of ideology. I'm dreading it.

I regarded the news about Jarvis to be JC's supporters not worrying about a leadership challenge
but preparing the way for a hard left candidate to take over when JC steps down

i.e. they are getting rid of one of the next generation of leaders, who could defeat their candidate

We have to watch for this quiet planning to lock in the hard left takeover of Labour
It is important
They are planning ahead and if they nobble the best moderate candidates, as well as taking over the NEC and the party machine, then the next Labour leader will probably also be of the hard left

'Political' as in pursuing state power at whatever costs. And of course, resistant to facts.

Lib dems do seem to be on a bit of a roll in this area: Aylesbury is about 10 miles from Northchurch where tories were ousted by lib dems a few weeks ago; this is proper tory heartlands.................
Dacorum Borough Council
Labour 97 10.5% (down 1%)
Rob McCarthy Conservative 260 28.2% (down 32%)
Green 19 2.1% (down 7%)
Lara Pringle Liberal Democrat 545 59.2% ( up 40%)

The Democrats fightback is well under way at a grass roots level in US, without a national party leader. No offence to Vince Cable, but it could be that that may be happening here. And, Sunderland.........

Labour leader will probably also be of the hard left
BigChoc I really don't regard this current party as Labour. It is simply the SWP 'identifying' as labour. The party may well split soon.

Brexiles

More Brits emigrating before Brexit, like I did;
also a better quality of life in a country with properly funded public services, safe longterm renting, free / cheap childcare.

You know, what the UK could choose, if people would vote for taxes to pay for it - and stop cutting taxes for the wealthy

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/24/meet-the-brexiles-who-voted-with-their-feet

I complained to the BBC too, about the failure to report the demos.

I wouldn't wish for another referendum. We haven't learned any lessons from the last one. We're more divided than ever, leavers vs remainers, left vs right... There would be no point to it. What I do want is for the government to go for long term view in the negotiations and make it a cross party effort. Obviously not going to happen now. A vote on the final deal, but MPs to vote according to their constituents, not the whip. Unlikely, I know..

I'm pretty resigned to that being inevitable, BigChoc.

I also don't see any chance of a serious alternative to Labour, as an Opposition, in the next decade. There's a massive issue about the 'back room' in the election process: the party machinery that ensures campaigns to get MPs elected, the work that goes into amassing data and keeping it up to date, the work of attracting and organising all those people who work to get leaflets produced, written, delivered, the PR machine, the networks of knowledge and skills and funding, etc. etc. It takes years to build all that up (decades).

I really can't bear to hand all that over without a struggle.